Dai Xu: U.S. – Philippines in the South China Sea luck and China play the game of the brave
Data Figure: Philippines to purchase warships from the United States
rushed to the Huangyan Island waters, fishing boats and fishermen in the implementation of site protection date from April 10 this year, the State Oceanic Administration to send ocean surveillance ship formation and the Philippines in Huangyan the confrontation of the island has been going on for a month. Philippines pull alliance to find a backer, the first requirement of international arbitration, renamed Huangyan Island, and then encouraged the diaspora procession, he has adopted an aggressive posture. Chinese Foreign Ministry’s position is also increasingly harsh, how could end up in the Philippines in the South China Sea confrontation? The confrontation behind why there is a strife of interests of other countries? With these questions, the reporter interviewed a military expert Dai Xu, Hainan Marine Security and Cooperation in Research Institute.
Reporter: This year, the Philippines, and Japan, and Vietnam’s territorial waters disputes have become the hot spot, giving a “focus on the outbreak of” feel. It stands to reason that China’s rapid economic development, countries are increasingly powerful, and why these countries initiated provocation to the Chinese at this time, behind what mystery?
Dai Xu: Recently, China’s periphery, especially maritime disputes frequent. Explore the reasons behind the external is the eastward shift of the U.S. strategic focus at China. The United States to transfer China’s interests and inducements, encouraging neighboring States to accede to the camp. Some neighboring countries are driven by the interests of the mixing that follow the United States, the United States gave military assistance, both to economic assistance from China to get a little territorial waters and territorial. Before the United States far enough away, they can not grab things Chinese, now the United States, it was the backing, so they are looting. Internal reasons, since China’s reform and opening up domestic economic development, and externally committed to world peace and error to think that China dare not use force against a number of countries, so have nothing to fear, insatiable.
This shows that China is not really powerful, not what they say goes, depending on the world is recognized. The strong is not strong, with GDP, but with the will of the state, the technical strength. Americans are quick to mention the “China threat” theory, in fact, a real threat to the world that Americans, China has neither the will nor the energy. But it must be made clear is that if you can not firmly safeguard our own interests, the normal exercise of military power, that will be encountered more peripheral events.
Reporter: Behind each dispute, we seem to see the shadow of the United States, the States parties to any like to pull the United States to do their own patron. The United States is willing to place in them? The United States hopes to get what kind of benefits through the support of the States parties to overtly or covertly?
Dai Xu: It should be said, Today, the South China Sea, a farce by the American director, the Philippines starring Vietnam, India, Japan and other participating pattern has been very clear, strategic motives of the United States is all too clear. Because the U.S. is a feint, and did not intend to direct strategic confrontation in the South China Sea and China, which determines the move of the Philippines in the South China Sea is also a bluff.
the United States in the South China Sea, gambling is in any case, China will not use military means, the Philippines, chances are. China has been peace overtures to the US-Philippine cause the psychological expectations. As a result, the United States in the South China Sea and China playing a brave game. The so-called “brave game is in a straight, two cars were from the two head-speeding. Avoid those who are called “chicken”, the winner was known as “brave”. Researcher at the Rand Corporation, Schelling and von Neumann made his famous “game theory” that first put “under any circumstances, I will never give way to” not hesitate to die “attitude, according to this principle, then the party finally will choose concessions. The United States in the Cuban missile crisis, successful application of this strategy, not a battle to subdue the enemy. The United States to teach a country like the Philippines, and China to play this game. Some politicians and soldiers in the Philippines, and frequently said, and war to a soldier, Vietnam is not only in the South China Sea insatiable, arrogant affront to China’s Xisha Islands. This is not because they have such strength and determination, but also dreams of the brave when the game back. But they do not know, “brave game” premise is the strength of the opponent, the game both sides are rational, all believe that survival is more important than honor. But including the United States, they forget that the failure of this theory has repeatedly in front of the new China.
Reporter: Diaoyu Islands, Japan launched a so-called private fundraising to buy the action, which have practical significance?
Dai Xu: initiate purchase action Shintaro Ishihara, is a political rabies patients, he had also attacked the United States, but he attacks most of China, because he knows that the United States will fix him unceremoniously, while China usually generous. Ishihara’s father launched the culprit of the September 18th Incident, notorious ishiharakanji. His father with a bayonet injury, he hurt the Chinese language, Chinese people can not forgive him.
Reporter: South China Sea disputes to resolve in what way? Under current conditions, how can we effectively protect, develop, the use of these islands?
Dai Xu: Since it is a dispute, there what kind of results are possible, the normal, the war is not necessarily the only solution, but it is a more effective way. Like surgery is not the only way to fight tumors, but it is certainly a more effective way.
As for how to protect the development, use of these islands, the Chinese are not afraid of war in the South China Sea, but not the war as an end. After 30 years of reform and opening up, our economy has been integrated and the world should now against the dual needs of sea lanes, safety and marine resources, the development of the South China Sea on the strategic position of the western development are equally important to consider. The relevant departments should advance with the times, the South China Sea policy, a major adjustment, and change the original 12-character principle as “sovereignty in me, to intensify the development, welcomed the cooperation to combat the provocation, the maintenance of peace”. The greatest significance of these 20 characters is to change the perspective, is no longer the South China Sea issue is just as diplomatic issues, and will be included in the scope of the internal affairs of the problem. (Wang Yuan should Xiaoyan)
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Dai Xu said China’s pursuit of peace can not be the bottom line of concessions to the United States (Figure)