Dai Xu: Department of confrontation, Huangyan Island, the Philippines desperate desire to lead the Chinese use of force
Data Figure: Philippines, purchase warships from the United States
China and the Philippines in the Huangyan Island Ship confrontation almost January, there is no end in sight, the Philippines has set off a renamed farce. I believe that this is the intention to stir up one out of the Philippines, the United States is secretly involved in the political game, it seems very complicated, in fact, very simple to crack up, in accordance with the principle of Know thyself, know what they want to achieve “win”.
must first figure out the Philippines want to do to provoke this confrontation. In fact, the mind of the Philippines in the confrontations have been revealed. The Philippines is a small country in ASEAN, Aquino III but also the country side and the lackluster economy. See the eastward shift of the U.S. strategic, so they think the United States the opportunity to return to Southeast Asia, to take an economic and military aid from the United States. This “strategic opportunism” is the Philippines so much noise in the South China Sea issue has been particularly fierce, jump particularly high.
April 10, 2009 confrontation between one occurs, the Philippines designed follow-up actions, one by one. Nearly a month of the situation, the Philippines has been basically to achieve their goals: May 3, the Philippines Foreign Minister in Washington, said U.S. military aid to the Philippines this year will expand to nearly twice.
Huangyan Island Event is the Philippines self-guided play and hope China “with” desperate measure “, it in fact do the Chinese prepare to take the normal action, in other words, the inner hope that the Chinese beat it a meal. In this way, can the United States to more things.
Second, figure out what the United States wants in this standoff. The intention of the United States is also very simple, is to muddy the waters, play off. The Huangyan Island confrontation is no exception. The United States to return to Southeast Asia, except in foreign alliances, it also requires new military bases. The whole of Southeast Asia, with the exception of Singapore military bases, there are two places it is most concerned about: one was once the Soviet military bases in Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay, one is it used to be stationed in Subic Hong Kong. Disgraceful invasion and occupation of the last century, the people of the Philippines and Vietnam haunt of American GIs. Know that the United States and Vietnam increasingly warm, not yet reached the extent you can embrace, now the most promising is the Philippines. Only if there is no plausible reason, Filipinos will not be successfully accepted by the U.S. military presence.
In addition, the United States through the harassment of a small country move to test China’s strategic bottom line, and the strategy to contain. If ignored, will be the United States believes to contain little action efforts not play a role, will design and manufacture of more such incidents.
Finally, it should consider what China can do in this confrontation. The incident was a blatant invasion of the territorial waters, China accounts for all the favorable factors. In accordance with the principles of rational, beneficial, should and can be in this confrontation do two things: the confrontation one of the Philippines to participate in all non-armed vessels all seizure, forfeiture or a fine by diplomatic channels to solve; military ships directly be captured or sunk. The Philippines will afterwards: it was clean up the wreck from the United States going to even second-hand ships have much more advanced. China’s multibillion-dollar initiative to aid in the Philippines to thank, but the Chinese did it, the heart of the Philippines is grateful, even though it may be condemned verbally. Second, China’s Huangyan island entered the army, and began to carry out economic development. From here on, the popularity of this precedent to the Spratly Islands.
China’s Huangyan Island action, an inevitable result of the Philippines will play a large shrew, within certain limits, to make it downtown – it was about this to the United States for anything. But if it goes beyond the limit, that China must be prepared to comprehensive sanctions, and in the South China Sea territory line complete expulsion of the preparation of the Philippine military targets. In the U.S., it has shown that the position will not intervene in the dispute over China and the Philippines, which is the true idea of ??the United States.
China to take the normal state action in the “help” the Philippines, it would also “help” the desire to enter the Philippines. Many Chinese people in this place to turn, but turn to that action in the South China Sea some Southeast Asian countries will be pushed to the arms of the United States. Has been the U.S. military base in Japan, Korea, Singapore, the Philippines is one more anyway, completely insignificant for the entire Asia-Pacific political and military structure. (The writer is a strategic analyst for the China Energy Fund Committee, Hainan Marine Security and Cooperation in Research Institute Dai Xu)
experts talk about Philippine renamed Huangyan Island: China’s core interests do not give way
Expert: Philippine sovereignty on the Huangyan Island Sound cable is difficult to justify
Chinese experts rejected the sovereignty of the Philippine sound cable Huangyan Island three advocates
Chinese side urged the Philippine side to return to a diplomatic solution to the Huangyan Island event track