Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

classification 330 000 army can win a “proxy war”

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“rule of law, the Digest reported that” Zhuangao: Wu Juxuan

Council March 16, held a closed-door consultations on the Syrian issue. But the situation in Syria, it seems hardly seen what improved, while government forces and armed opposition groups continue fierce fighting, the capital, Damascus, and Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo March 17 and 18 has been more than a car bomb attack.

time is the most important of all parties involved in Syria, the armed opposition does not want to sit still; Syrian government forces stepped up the pace to destroy the opposition armed. A behind involves the United States, Western countries, Iran and Gulf Arab countries, “proxy war” seems to have started.

Syria, the situation is very worrying

March 10-11, the United Nations and the League of Arab States Joint Special Envoy appointed by Annan to Syrian visit, Annan to the Syrian government made a series of recommendations aimed at ending the violence, accelerate humanitarian assistance, and start the Syrian-led political process. Syria has been on Annan’s proposal to make a reply.

the face of the Syrian government forces pressing harder and harder, further narrowing of the living space of the armed opposition, is the most precious time for them. At the same time, Western society is still considerable debate on whether to take military means to solve the Syrian problem. Western powers led by the U.S., this is not the best moment of the use of military force, and also need to be very cautious to give weapons and financial support to the Syrian armed opposition. Some U.S. media and experts believe that Al Qaeda has played a very important role in the Syrian armed opposition. In addition, once the military means, may lead to large-scale conflict in the West and Iran, Russia.

but received the support of the Arab Gulf countries, Syria, the opposition can not wait, as the divided opposition inside, they need to use a “car bomb” non-traditional means to deal with the Syrian army, because do not fight back, they will have no place to hide.

March 17, Damascus urban area have occurred in two car bomb attacks against Syrian security agencies, resulting in 27 deaths and 140 injured. In addition, the same day in the Yar Muck refugee camps near Damascus also occurred in a car bombing, two terrorists died in the explosion. 18, Aleppo, Syria, the second largest city in a residential area once again burst into an explosion, resulting in at least three people were killed and 25 injured.

fighting in Syria, government forces and armed opposition continues. Government forces completely control March 14 Idlib city of the northwest end of the armed opposition Liberal Syrian Army control of the city for several months. Government forces since the end of January this year to take military action on the eastern outskirts of Damascus, Hama province in rural areas, the city of Homs, Rastan City, has been the basic control of these areas.

view of the Syrian security situation is grim, last week, Italy, Turkey and the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have announced the closure of its embassy in Syria. The international community a political solution to the efforts of the Syrian crisis to a critical moment.

The United States on the use of force was hesitant

Eurasian Review magazine, the United States and its Western allies in the military intervention in Syria, for each kinds of factors have changed position. Although the majority of Syrian opposition groups urged the West to increase the largest anti-government armed – the financial support of the freedom of the Syrian Army and weapons support, but the Pentagon apparently have no confidence in the Syrian opposition. Pentagon sources believe that the difficulty of taking military action in Syria will be very large. And the current situation in Syria to keep up with the situation in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, and last year the situation in Libya is not the same.

news reports quoted an anonymous “senior defense official” as saying that Syria has a sophisticated air defense systems and 33 million units, it is difficult to beat in a short period of time. In addition, the Pentagon armed Syrian opposition still lack enough information to opposition to the lack of effectiveness and unified leadership. American military intervention may make Syria into civil war, and make the U.S. into battle with Iran and Russia’s “proxy war”. In addition, Washington has taken any military action, the current lack of international support.

Today, in the Syrian situation in any military action will need careful consideration, the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Max Bute in the Washington Post article said, not by reason only that the Pentagon repeatedly mentioned in the “worst scenario”, but refused to take any measures in Syria.

Speaking from the Syrian air defense system is considered to be very strong. One can see that in the 1982 war in Lebanon, Israel broke through the Syrian air defense facilities; In 2007, the Israeli “targeted killings” of the al-Kibar nuclear reactor in Syria, the Syrian air defense system does not seem to this The world’s most advanced, most powerful air force to make any decent challenge. In the before and after two contests, the U.S. Air Force destroyed Saddam Hussein’s air defense facilities and did not encounter any trouble, while the Syrian air defense system-based, Russian equipment and air defense weapons.

then 33 million people on the Syrian government troops? Most of the soldiers lack the training and combat power, the Sunni soldiers are not willing to defend a Alawites (an offshoot of Shiite Muslims) government to make great sacrifices. Bashar al-Assad government can count on only about 30,000 Alawi soldiers, they are al-Assad is often used to attack the armed opposition troops.

Max Bute for a potential war with Iran or Russia, but there is no need to cause concern. U.S. Embassy staff in 1979 as a hostage incident occurred, Iran has been looking for an opportunity to launch a war against the United States – sometimes by proxy mode, sometimes direct hands-on. If we shot to overthrow the Tehran to Damascus “allies”, it was only a belated counter to all of Iran’s provocative move.

As for Russia, indeed Moscow in the Syrian naval base, but the aircraft of the United States is certainly not as a target of Russia’s military facilities. This is not the Cuban missile crisis, Russia is not willing to use war to defend the Assad regime.

GCC urged armed Syrian opposition

the face of rapid changes in the current situation, the Syrian National Council (by a majority of Syria’s main opposition political party composition) has started to organize its own military structure, and military institutions to create a unified command under the newly formed Military Bureau, the Military Board, headquartered in Paris. “Eurasia Review,” the article said, according to sources said the Syrian National Council, within the Military Bureau a total of 46 seats will be decommissioned or rebellion, the Syrian army officers featuring. Military Bureau of the opposition’s main task will now scattered throughout the country and the fragmented nature of armed organized as the core of freedom of the Syrian Army.

“Until recently, troops from the town or village in the Syrian army to rise up before announcing that he is part of the freedom of the Syrian army, but so far they have not with the current leadership and anti-government forces, the founder of Lie De-Assad contacted the Syrian National Commission officials, who declined to be named, said the Military Committee will strive to improve the Western and Arab countries on their ability to trust, to be able to obtain the freedom of the Syrian army weapons and equipment.

Now, armed opposition is mainly dependent on light and medium weapons and ammunition, these are to buy from the local black market in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, are to provide financial assistance to support the “revolution” Syrian businessmen. Today, this anti-government forces are trying to defend the town of opposition activists, and the Syrian government forces launched a large-scale conflict. The organization known as the nearly 9,000 people, and the number is increasing. It is said that even a small number of Arab countries and the Middle East countries, especially the Gulf States, are beginning to facilitate the Syrian anti-government militants to obtain weapons, especially anti-armor weapons, which makes the anti-government armed personnel and the public can protect themselves .

According to reports, the officials of the Gulf Arab country to Washington was disappointed in respect of areas, if Washington on Syria “hit” will be to crack down on Iran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar has publicly stated that the armed Syrian opposition. The Assad government in the eyes of many Arab countries, officials and experts, the hesitation of Western society will have plenty of time to crack down on opposition, completely snuffed the flames of the “Arab Spring” in Syria.

of Syria, the United States has its own worries, but Max Bute, this concern may be slowed by providing training and assistance. Gift by using the “gift”, the Americans can play a crucial role. Meanwhile, the Syrian who has dealings with the extremist armed factions can be excluded from the opposition camp outside.

Once equipped with the appropriate anti-armor weapons and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, the Syrian armed opposition have enough manpower in the country’s northern and southern regions to establish their own security zones and safe corridors. The military spokesman for the Bureau of the Syrian National Committee, said, “We just need to Turkey or NATO forces to provide us with early warning and imagery intelligence allows us to know the whereabouts and actions of the Syrian army.

Max Bute to help the opposition does not mean that will increase the danger of Syria into civil war. Syria has been in a state of civil war, and the local situation is becoming worse. “We put more pressure on the overthrow of the Assad government, then we can end the war quickly, we will play a greater influence on the successor government.

[Note]: see March 21, the rule of law Digest “version 4; the original question: classification 330,000 troops can win the” proxy war “”.

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