Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

Data Figure: U.S. Navy CVN-70 Carl – Vinson aircraft carrier battle group at sea battle

Man Lam

2012 since the beginning of the game the United States and Iran heating up. Significantly increase U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, in addition, the United States increased military deterrent, not long ago three aircraft carriers towards the Gulf, military action against Iraq rumors come and go.

continue to strengthen economic interdependence of today, the “gates of fire, adverse impacts to fish.” Occurred in the distant Middle East, Iraq battle of wits, not only Iran may suffer, but also a serious threat to many, including China’s oil imports from the Middle East consumer interests.

Iran has long said that if the Western embargo on Iranian oil, will be used to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Many people assume that the U.S. energy consumption in the world, so the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leading to soaring international oil prices, the U.S. will be the biggest victims, the United States because of fear of soaring international oil prices do not dare to use force against Iran. But in fact, all these years, the United States to ensure energy security, has been trying to reduce oil imports, especially from the volatile Middle East to reduce oil imports. According to the U.S. Department of Energy report, beginning in 2007, total U.S. oil imports from OPEC to reduce the more than 100 million barrels per day, while oil imports from the total non-oil exporting countries only reduced by 50 million barrels. Currently, more than half of U.S. oil imports from the Western Hemisphere (North America, South America, Central America, the Caribbean and United States), 22% from Africa, while the proportion of imported oil from the Gulf region, but 17%, far lower than China, Japan, South Korea, India and the EU countries. In addition, due to great efforts to develop domestic oil resources in the United States, as well as shale gas and other non-conventional energy, the first nine months of 2011, U.S. oil exports over imports, which means that the U.S. is likely the first time in 60 years to a net exporter of petroleum products. Therefore, if Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz, the most affected in addition to the Gulf oil-producing countries including Iran, the rest is a lot of oil imports from Middle East oil-consuming countries in Asia and Europe, not the United States.

At the same time, the use of petroleum products in U.S. dollars the financial system, the United States and Iraq led to soaring oil prices, if intense game, will lead to dramatic increase in national demand for the dollar, thereby making the country the United States continue to disregard dilution dollar “quantitative easing” policy, efforts to increase holdings of U.S. dollars, thereby making a strong dollar weak dollar, strengthening U.S. dollar hegemony.

therefore, is the so-called “Tsutsumiuchi loss Diwai fill” for the United States, Iraq escalation of conflict appear to be “double-edged sword,” the U.S. costs and benefits of mixed, but in fact, this addition to Iran damaged, it will also indirectly damage minds of potential adversaries the United States (including the strength of the European Union and China and other emerging economies). From this sense, the driving force in the United States launched the war strengthened rather than reduced.

but now the United States launched two wars in the series after a new war some not, so the main task now is to weaken Iran as much as possible. And financial sanctions, the economic embargo on oil is crushed from Iran Henzhao. Meanwhile, the U.S. also sought to isolate Iran diplomatically, to be portrayed as “international pariah” for possible future military strike neutralize the diplomatic obstacles.

while sliding into the brink of war than the Iraq conflict more dangerous is that many countries have failed to hold a “nothing to do with an armchair,” short-sighted mentality. Iran nuclear crisis is actually a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” the world can not look on, the key is to prevent the problem escalating into crisis, the vicious cycle of channel.

(The author is a Research Associate Institute of Contemporary International Relations China)

. OtherContent_01 p {line-height: 23px; margin: 0px;} . icon_sina,. icon_msn,. icon_fx {background-position: 2px-1px}. icon_msn {background-position:-25px-1px;}. icon_fx {background-position:-240px-50px;} share: