Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

2011 年 12 16, Xinhua,” Toward World “series, the second seminar,” 2011 new international strategic pattern changes and future trends “held in Beijing. The picture shows West Africa researcher at China Academy of Social Sciences, China Institute of Deputy Secretary-General Yin Gang Middle East in a speech. Xinhua Chen Jieshe

Editor’s note: change the world in a big, big development, big adjustment period, the international situation of uncertainty, ambiguity, and unexpected features even more distinctive. In the soon to be over 2011, West Asia North Africa turbulence, forcing people to re-examine the concept of governance; the world economy faces the risk of second bottom, the financial crisis began to shift to the political and social crisis; the new changes in the environment surrounding China, the situation is increasingly grim.

judged for further understanding and changing international situation, the first held last year, “Toward the world,” the international situation after the seminar, Xinhua, 16 December once again invited experts and scholars gathered to smooth made in 2011 the international strategic situation of the new changes, and future trends. Xinhua hopes to hold “Toward World” series, seminars, experts and scholars to pass insights to help users eliminate many international hot issues “to see how” confusion.

This article is a researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences West Africa, the Middle East Society of China Yin Gang, Deputy Secretary-General in his speech entitled “Middle East upheaval observed to focus on ethnic and sectarian rivalry,” the main content of speech.

2011 in the Middle East more thing is also more complex, I make a few this year, but speculation in the media is not particularly need to focus on things. Let’s talk about from terrorism.

first Egyptian election, the election is certainly Tunisian Islamist party came to power. Islamization throughout the region long ago, and 1,300 years deep down that this thing, it will only be elected this thing, the Islamic party came to power in line with culture, environment, traditions, etc., is a very natural thing. Why strongman politics during the Cold War control of the regions? The two superpowers during the Cold War Soviet hegemony, hegemony and the need to suppress the use of religious forces, so that we do not see what the Cold War, a moderate Islamic forces that came to power what tendency? “9 11″ Where to after the terrorist? If that is instigated the Soviet Red Army, then you may be very surprised, before 1980 the world has terrorism? Generally do not. But after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Middle East, these Muslims, aggressive, strong sense of responsibility to play a little have come to the Soviet Red Army in Afghanistan, because “Communists accounted Muslim lands.” At that time the United States Central Intelligence Agency do? Muslims fear these guys do not understand “jihad”, the Indian “holy war” has been published in the Soviet Red Army to fight the process of training or a radical Islamic terrorism. Such as the withdrawal of the Soviet Red Army, the kind of power once the train had to be looking up and goal, and finally took place, “911.” USA incited the Islamic “jihad” finally hit the performance of the collapse of the Twin Towers in New York.

which reached a peak, the United States on terror. To fight to it that the anti-democratic counter-terrorism is fundamental, democratic world, and there is no terrorism has. This is also consistent with the fundamental interests of the United States, despite the short-term interests and some conflicts may occur, under attack after the fall into some trouble, this may be a lucky hit, perhaps U.S. policy think tank, there are expert. Through the promotion of democracy in the Middle East, the Islamic party came to power, the Islamic party came to power there must be what trend? Certain that the power to curb Islamic terrorism.

Tripoli, Libya, we all know is the “base” organization to win, and the security situation in Tripoli, there has been a big problem, people protest for the withdrawal of foreign troops, is to allow the withdrawal of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, Islamic Fighting Group is the “base” of the Libyan branch of the organization. These people are not killing innocent people have noticed, and Iraq’s “base” organization in the late war in Iraq has adjusted its policies, and even Osama bin Laden hate al-Zarqawi, saying how do you kill chaos, specifically bombing mosques? Given us shame. So Zarqawi is the “base” Collateral within the organization, the United States to get rid of the UAV.

Islamic party came to power after such a tendency, it is part of the responsibility to play, it is to maintain one’s peace, it must put their own advocates moderate Islam awareness and get people to be in power necessary to comply with international rules, to be included in a certain range of the track and be sure to suppress the more extreme forces. Hamas, Fatah in Gaza is not hated, but the “base” organization and the “Sala Fei” faction (Ben Note: “Sala Fei” in Arabic means “ancestor adhere to tradition.” This an organization by the “base” organization thinking, keep the orthodox religious establishment of national, anti-Israel and anti-Western stance), is Bihamasi also horizontal group of people. Israel is often not the Hamas rockets, because the agreement signed, the rockets is to find a fight, and those more extreme, is looking to play, chaos, Hamas special group of people arrested. This means that the future will be sharing a considerable part of the Islamic regime’s anti-terrorism task, the task against Islamic extremism, that is digested in the number of terrorist elements within Islam. This is in fact tantamount to helping the people of the Islamic forces came to power, so that they counter-terrorism and the West shared responsibility, I do not think this is the West’s thoughtful, but I think this is an inevitable trend, so we need to worry about the spread of terrorism .

Second, there is a problem this year reflects the essence of the Middle East and fundamental, that is, established in 1981 the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the expansion of the role. 6 oil-rich Gulf countries, and Iran are against. Why is there only in 1981, the GCC? 1981, what day? Iran and Iraq that the days of play out of control. Iran aggressively to export Shiite revolution, forcing Saddam to war. Gulf countries have what characteristics? Sunni Arab royal power, but there are a large number of Shiite citizens, some countries even more people than the Sunni Shiite people still more. Bahraini Shiites took to the streets as this year’s rebellion, Bahrain intelligence service arrested a few of the most trouble, ask them, hey, you all kind of tricks high, Where did you learn it? School in Lebanon. Who taught you? Hezbollah taught. Any trouble in the Gulf region behind a certain Shiite Iran, the GCC countries, these Sunni Arab royal family will be suppressed, there is no need to worry about the Americans, the American eye, close one eye fitted good . So you see trouble in Bahrain, the GCC Joint Forces troops, few people say that the suppression of democracy. In the Middle East, the most enduring, the most fundamental contradiction, not the Arab people and the conflict between Western colonizers, is the conflict between Arabs and Persians, is the conflict between Sunni and Shiite. 1981 Gulf Cooperation Council established the most fundamental motivation is to prevent the expansion of Iran, to prevent the Shiite expansion, to prevent the output of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

this year, Jordan and Morocco, two sovereign States joined the Gulf Cooperation Council, who welcomed the meeting immediately, would be tantamount to accept. What does this illustrate? Arab sovereign country together, and our country Knock revolution, revolution are nothing, together. United States and Western countries is not treasure, love, like the monarch alliance it? Definitely a favorite. So in the Arab world into two camps, Arab republic evolving countries, including Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Algeria, etc., as well as the Gulf and non-Gulf Arab monarchy in eight countries, now set the flag in the GCC the next. GCC has a very strong joint force, this force combined joint forces than Iran in addition to almost the quality of personnel, the Air Force is absolutely overwhelming strength on Iran. If the recurrence of war against Iran, of course, to curb the rise of Iran’s nuclear war, the main fighting force must be a GCC’s joint force.

look at the Middle East do not want to do that the United States and France want to do, what China’s interests and less pull on the surface of these thing, roots in the cultural, racial conflict.

Third, Iran’s problems. Why does Iran build nuclear weapons, we do not make, and why India and Pakistan made out, pretending to sanction what would be finished? Or two because the two do not have, who will not fight, and balance. Why Iran’s nuclear weapons but has been restrained? Because a thousand years of confrontation with Iran’s nuclear weapons, the Arab camp was killed. Saddam’s nuclear reactor in 1981, a nest of Israeli side. Why does Israel have to get personally involved in combat in 1981, Saddam Hussein’s nuclear reactor? Because then the whole world to support Saddam to fight the Persians, are afraid of Iran, then Israel said simply playing the game is the joint United States. But the people of Israel realize that if Saddam obtain nuclear, he dared to use, so feeding the reactor in Baghdad, the first day of production to the bombing, after bombing the world’s condemnation. Israel’s move greatly to the further contention foreshadowed the Middle East, the Arab world’s nuclear weapons are eliminated, the Persians stayed, until now.

2003 In the spring, the U.S. Street Fighter Iraq, Iran announced that uranium was discovered in southern, to refine their own. Iran is very smart to seize this opportunity period. 8 years from 2003 to present, in the eight years from the start refining Li Yilang “yellow cake”, and now two days will put to the nuclear reactor fuel rods made, the speed is not too slow. If Iran has nuclear weapons, who is most afraid of? Israel is simply afraid of, first of all on such a small area of ??Israel, where the atomic bomb throwing is dead, and many Arabs, the Jews are hidden in the cellar. And you have to fling, Israel’s “Dolphin” submarines carrying nuclear missiles on the world’s nuclear counterattack very good weapons, there is a year round lying on the Red Sea, so Iran does not move Israel, is to take something he said, the most feared the Arabs.

faced with such a pressure on Iran, its nuclear weapons can not be made out of? He do not have a specific opponent, and he can not balance, this is not India and Pakistan. If it was not trouble the Iranian Islamic revolution, the Shah and Saddam peaceful competition, now India and Pakistan might like to make one pair of children of nuclear weapons, Iran’s Islamic revolution after all or did not play well, take a big detour.

Iran is now how to do? Khomeini is very smart, it is designed to adhere to Islamic principles of Iran’s regime, the implementation of Islamic law, but the Western parliamentary system, a complete separation of powers moved to Iran. Above and set up a constitutional oversight committee and Islamic expert committees to ensure that the Islamic-led, the top is the supreme spiritual leader. Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini said that learning should be a large, respected, leadership skills, this position is high, in fact, only enough of his own cell, he after that? Khamenei’s authority is always subject to challenge Khamenei, the strange this system intact.

Iranian intercontinental missile test last month when an explosion killed a lot of missiles, nuclear experts and specialists, the day Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also been invited to go. Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard two days before several senior officials including his younger son also caught up, obviously the coup, this system has been faced with enormous challenges. Khamenei has not made a final decision, if his decision is sure to assemble nuclear warheads, and will definitely look to play, if not assembled, another way to work? These days he is doing a big move, December 12, Iran’s Intelligence Minister visits Saudi Arabia, brought a settlement agreement, want to share its nuclear program. And supervision to ensure that Iraq’s Shiite leaders to ensure that the interests of Sunnis, we do not pinch the two partners, we common enemy is the United States and Israel.

Iran in the Middle East frequently some wonderful things, capture Iranian UAV that is a high technology, and now the legend is not one of them captured, was the seventh frame, and the Israel also captured. Unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites, unmanned U.S. surveillance systems throughout the world the source code and password is the same, so now the U.S. is not going to Iran, not to solve the problem through a UAV, is not technically a pressure Iran, the battle simply can not play.

now the United States, Israel including the West is aware of not a good way to fight Iran, Iran in the United States 1500000-2000000 dual Persians, they are opposed to hit Iran, they said the war would lead to national preparedness mobilization, institutional and maintenance down, the West generally rely on long-term view is that economic sanctions, and gradually led to changes within Iran.

then we should pay attention to the Middle East talk about the emergence of new trends. The original Zionist Zionists, the U.S. Senate in 1916 passed a resolution demanding the founding of the British to help when a statement was made, that is, the oil-rich region of Western ideology must be a form of government, the Jewish state. But after the founding of the Jews, Middle East war to fight so many times, are not just a place to fight the oil.

different now, in the eastern Mediterranean from Cyprus to Israel, the Palestinian area in Gaza found several level of one trillion cubic meters of natural gas fields, the region could become another Persian Gulf. This is what would happen? Is a non-traditional resources in the Middle East conflict zones, adding to the competition for resources factor. The past is not necessarily the Middle East conflict zone has the resources and the resources of the place but can not afford big battle. Grab Saddam and Kuwait as it is a border conflict, the Palestinians and Israelis are traditional areas of conflict lead to resources how to do this? Therefore, the future of the Eastern Mediterranean region conflict complicated.

the natural gas this summer, demonstrations in Turkey to send warships to Cyprus because Turkey in northern Cyprus, a Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. There is only Turkey, a nationally recognized, he said he also has interests here, once in the past against Israeli naval aircraft. Because Israel and Cyprus have signed an agreement to jointly develop, Turkey and eager to fight this resource, the Middle East is very complex, we should not keep thinking in the Middle East terrorism and the little things, to think of the fundamental conflict of interest. Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas dispute could become the next hot spot.

finally talk about the U.S. policy adjustment. War on terror or are surrounded around the Mediterranean, the war should be strictly defined monotheism internal conflicts within the Middle East between the main ethnic conflicts, what China did. Must not be detached involvement, equal and Persian, Arab, Turkic and Jewish state to do business, to develop relations and equal is not involved in the greatest contribution to regional peace.

United States is now part of the Mediterranean to France shared responsibility, more power on their own Asia-Pacific, from the U.S. point of view, do a very rational. Although the United States is a member of monotheistic circles, but in terms of geography, the United States should not be played too powerful in the Mediterranean periphery. After the Cold War, around the Mediterranean, the Middle East is the responsibility of the Europeans, where the U.S. share some responsibility, not a superpower, and the interests of allies can be taken care of also reducing the burden of their own, why not for? Now the United States began to turn his attention the Pacific, where is the U.S. really hard place.

think about it, the United States after World War II Korean War and Vietnam War in the flame was the most powerful, most people died, are in the Asia Pacific region, directly behind the opponent and the opponent are all Chinese. U.S. fortunes been the biggest challenge, attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, also occurred in the Pacific, against Japan. Japan and China, both Pacific countries. Americans know that sooner or later will be in Europe around the Mediterranean sites, where sooner or later dominate Europe, the United States must take the most important position in the Asia-Pacific, and China, Japan, competition and cooperation, the future is a sharing of power and responsibility the relationship between the United States will not put off the Chinese, the world needs Roosevelt said four policemen, China has always been on the police list, then think of is to make China look to live in Japan, the Korean War, the Japanese position changed. How to change the future, we must grasp. (This article is a researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences West Africa, the Middle East Society of China Yin Gang, Deputy Secretary-General in his speech entitled “Middle East upheaval observed to focus on ethnic and sectarian rivalry,” the main content of speech.)

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