Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

Data for: December 4, at the Syrian military live-fire exercises. The picture shows an armored vehicle is launched missiles.

foreign military perspective

Syria will not easily become a second Libya

the recent Israeli military Party sources said Syria on December 4 in the Northeast test-fired its 300 km range “Scud” missiles, missile landed in Syria near the border with Iraq. Syrian military 8 confirmed the news that an armored force in the territory of a number of missiles fired live ammunition exercises, and all hit the target accurately.

And recently, the U.S. and Russian aircraft carrier has neighboring Syria into the waters surrounding Israel Syria, Jordan and Turkey, three countries have declared a state of combat readiness troops. With Libya settled, the parties began to shift the focus of the situation is still deteriorating Syria, Libya, the mode of war will be repeated in Syria, much attention.

repeated in Syria, “Libya model” premature

Bashar al-Assad regime has drained many ways the Gaddafi regime in similar circumstances: First, Syria is a thorn in the Western world, with the United States and Libya have been classified as “axis of evil” and the “rogue states”, especially Iran, Syria stood firm side, so try to dominate the Middle East, which the United States dedicated to pregnant. Second, is the growing political turmoil in Syria, to provide opportunities for Western intervention. Syria introduced iron-fisted rule over the years, the State Council, has been very stable. The current “wave of the Middle East” continue to simmer, and Syria have a “resonance effect.”

many similarities to make people think the West is likely to be adopted to deal with Syria, Libya, to solve the problem, but in-depth analysis “Libya model” needs of several necessary prerequisites can be seen, again “Libya model” premature.

first is to integrate the opposition, the establishment of a national armed opposition, to facilitate the full support of external forces. At present, Syria armed opposition and government forces also unable to compete only in Syria, Turkey and other neighboring countries with temporary shelter. The other hand, was Libya, the Libyan armed by the democratic opposition supporters, Libya royal descendants, tribal leaders, religious extremists in four parts. Although the armed opposition, lack of military training, and weapons are also at a disadvantage compared to government forces, but, overall, still have some fight. Beginning of the war, the opposition will be occupied by several oil city as a primary objective. When the government forces to counterattack, the armed opposition and did not stick with inferior weapons and isolated city, but chose to leave immediately to save the vital forces. NATO intervention in Libya after the war, the armed opposition increased their strength and gradually gain the upper hand. Subsequently, the opposition is not complacent, but to actively organize and launch a counter-attack weapons to government forces, the final victory.

The second step is to obtain UN authority to intervene. Force against Syria, the U.S. and Europe is difficult to obtain an excuse. This is from the United States and Europe and Russia vetoed sanctions against Syria proposed program shows. As the UN Security Council permanent members Russia and China’s firm opposition, and thus may lead to the Security Council can not by any United States, France, the Arab League, Turkey’s military intervention in Syria, the United Nations resolution. At the time, the Libyan situation is different, the United Nations adopted a resolution to establish no-fly zone for the European and American force against Libya provided an excuse.

Libya and Syria, the military strength of the differences, and decided to send troops to the Western countries will not easily Syria

Bashar forced to step down the West has been determined, the external the possibility of intervention is becoming more and more. But Syria is very complex, and its hands hold combat weapon, the West in order to bite the next piece of hard bone, is not so easy.

Syria to the Middle East in the war based entirely due to their military strength. Although Syria lost to Israel more than it won the contest less, but still the latter as a rival should not be underestimated. At present, dominated by the ruling Alawi no signs of disintegration and division, and the overall strength of the Syrian army is better than the Libyan army, once the face of Western military intervention, the extent of their resistance is bound to be stronger than Gaddafi.

in NATO military strikes against Libya until the Libyan Army is the largest army in the armed services, standing force of 3.5 million people. Heavy equipment to battle the main Soviet-made weapons, with 2210 tanks, armored vehicles and at least 2483 infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, and various types of more than 1882 self-propelled artillery, in addition to “plug”, “Milan”, “fire box” so a total of about 3000 anti-tank missiles. And Syria’s military is far above in Libya. It is reported that, following Egypt and Syria with the Arab world after Iraq’s third largest military force. The country also has a mobile air defense weapons and intimidating the West of mustard gas, sarin and other chemical weapons. Syrian army headquarters located in Damascus, the headquarters command of three troops, elite Republican Guard, and two independent artillery brigades, two independent anti-tank brigade and an independent tank regiment. Israel estimated the Syrian army more than 300,000 active-duty soldiers, and in the event of war, Syria could mobilize 1.7 million trained civilians to join the Army service. Syria, there are about 30 million reserve, the reserve is sufficient compiled two motorized divisions, 12 infantry brigades and other special operations units.

fact, Syrian troops have a very important force, it is a few years ago in the United States under great pressure to withdraw from Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, the domestic forces, the army actually on long-term combat readiness of the state, and Israel before there is actual combat experience. The reason why Bashar Government stability is maintained, the reason why the government is now also emboldened Bashar and his army’s full trust are inseparable.

Syria is located in the “heart of the Middle East”, the security situation in the event of unrest, will spread to the entire Middle East

Syria is located in the heart of the Arab world the north border with Turkey, East border with Iraq, Jordan, adjacent to the south and southwest with Lebanon and Palestine, Israel, adjacent to the west across the Mediterranean sea and Cyprus. Complex geopolitical environment makes the resistance and the risk of Western military intervention is very large.

Syria is not Libya, both from the national power, the strategic position or in the Middle East countries and the importance of the Western powers is concerned, are far better than Libya. It is due to Syria’s strategic position is unusual, and the interests involved in many Western countries have to weigh again.

Once the fall of the Syrian government, will give a tremendous impact on the regional situation. The continued disruption of trade with Syria would seriously affect the economic development of the surrounding Arab countries, regional political map will be redrawn. Political change in Syria will affect its neighboring countries, relations with Israel, sparking regional security instability.

adjacent to Israel, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, the Middle East peace process plays a decisive role. And the current peace process in the Middle East Syria cautious, once the political situation has changed, it is likely that significant variables in the Middle East peace. From a regional point of view of the pattern, Bashar al-Assad regime and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraq, Iran constitutes a “Shiite Crescent”, especially with Iran is a strong strategic alliance. Rush for external military intervention, is likely to “pull off a whole”, then the West into a similar predicament in Iraq strategy.

on the current situation, the more likely is that Arab League money, United States and France out of Syria opposition armed military equipment, classification of domestic opposition forces defeated by the Bashar regime. Furthermore, the United States or by the assassination of Bashar Assad regime to engage in a military coup to overthrow the possibility is not excluded.

complex situation for Syria, China has consistently advocated that the international community should maintain peace and stability in Syria and the Middle East, the overall situation, to promote the classification of the situation to ease the creation of conditions for the people and countries in the region in line with the fundamental interests of the international community . Syria should be open by the classification of the broad participation in an inclusive political process, to respond to the Syrian people’s reasonable expectations and demands ease the situation as soon as possible. (Institute of People’s Liberation Army Border Bin)

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