Experts said the Philippines do not dare provoke a war in the South China Sea
data for: July 20, 5 members and some of the Philippines Philippine military officials Spratly Islands aboard the island’s second largest island in the industry, raised the Philippine flag on the island, and with the illegal control of the island’s garrison to sing the Philippine national anthem.
9 月初 with billions of dollars in trade contracts happy to go home, but soon after repeated provocations in the South China Sea issue China, and the scale is growing. Over the past two months, the Philippines, China policy of the “face”, so come unexpected, but buried hint. Recently, the Philippines and give birth in the South China Sea incident, arbitrarily detained 25 is the Philippines known as the “intruder” Chinese fishing boats, and then put forward the “third party intervention,” requirement. October 26 to 28, Philippine President Corazon Aquino III has invited the Vietnamese President Jin-invasive access to the Philippines, took the opportunity to discuss the South China Sea issue.
just in China and Vietnam signed an agreement after the South China Sea, Philippines, playing tricks to win over Vietnam, and China appears to be bent to play a “edge of the game.” However, experts warned that this “game” not fun, the Philippines also “play well.” I will not speak once the Philippine Navy misfires, the Philippines may be almost no chance of winning, the cards may be out of the hands of China is also to be more than the Philippines. Once China’s decision to punish the Philippines in the economy, not only has negotiated bilateral economic cooperation may be wasted, President Aquino III’s political career will be directly affected.
made trouble pulling “third party” involved
10 18, one being dragged 25 Chinese fishing boats sailing in the South China Sea ceremony Le Beach near the Philippine military gunboat was hit. Philippines subsequently explained gunboats near the Chinese fishing boats in the attempt to check the time, steering malfunction, runaway collision, is of a ‘little accident. ” Subsequently, the injured tow boats quickly cut away, the remaining 25 Philippine military unmanned boat was seized. Although the Chinese government has repeatedly demanded that the Philippine side the unconditional return of fishing boats, but the Philippine Foreign Ministry spokesman Raul Hernandez, 25, allegedly for not immediately return a Chinese fishing boat, the disposal of these ships need to “proceedings” in order to determine .
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reports, the Philippine Department of Defense spokesman Paredes had 19 that, in order to avoid creating tension in the South China Sea, the Chinese Embassy in Manila has apologized . But then, the Philippines Foreign Minister Rosario issued a statement, denied this, saying that “China does not need to apologize,” “do not have to apologize.” Rosario said, we hope to invite “third party” to mediate this event.
Philippines contradictory to say really surprising. In fact, with the arrest occurred in China than the Philippines, a country’s turmoil. South Korea, Japan, have had, no doubt the most intense conflict in September last year Japan’s seizure of the Chinese master event. But then intense bilateral solution is to require “third party” mediation, the Philippines, described as “pioneering.”
Committee of Experts on Marine Information Director, Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo that, of course, accidental collision, then the operation is intended and for. Philippines to take advantage of this to achieve a political effect of the collision, which is to establish a “third party” interference precedent. Opportunity to establish his state intervention model, something later on can do the same.
China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the Philippines, Southeast Asia, South Asia expert Chen Qinghong told “World News” reporter, next month, the East Asia Summit will be held in Indonesia, then the U.S. will be the first participants. Aquino III in late September visit to Japan, the two sides on the issue of the East Asian Seas held in the so-called “multilateral talks” to reach a consensus and decided to write a proposal for the East Asia Summit to discuss, its essence is to take the South China Sea multilateral. “The Philippines in the South China Sea, the ignition time and the purpose is to maintain an appropriate tension to make the South China Sea, the East Asia Summit to make proposals to become the focus of public opinion.”
completely turned to the United States Philippine Foreign Affairs
Way back in August last year, when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on the South China Sea to China again launched an attack, when he was Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo who is the only stand out, publicly to solve the South China Sea territorial disputes without the United States and any “third party” involved. But a year later, the Philippines has become the protagonist Jiaore South China Sea.
9 end of Aquino III’s visit to Japan. After the meeting, the two leaders issued a joint statement, not only confirmed the two countries in the South China Sea has a “common strategic interests” and said it would close bilateral cooperation, including military cooperation.
8 end to China Aquino III, the first state visit since taking office, with the Chinese side a few hundred billion dollars in trade agreements and commitment to a peaceful dialogue to resolve the South China Sea, an instant end Aquino III’s visit to China, Philippines to buy from the United States immediately announced a “Hamilton class” patrol boats deployed the South China Sea, in order to enhance the Philippine Navy patrol capability. In late July, held in Bali, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ASEAN countries act early on the South China Sea agreed new guidelines, only the Philippines Foreign Minister from the members to a series of audibles China.
China Institute of Contemporary International Relations of the South China Sea, Southeast Asia, South Asia expert Chu Hao told “World News” reporter, last June, to pursue a friendly policy towards China after leaving office of President Arroyo, the Philippines, gradually moving from a big country balanced strategy toward a pro-American strategy. August last year, “Hong Kong hostage incident”, in the two countries will always be some misunderstanding and discord.
March of this year, China executed according to injection drug three Filipinos. Rosario, the Philippine foreign ministers was revealed to the media, to “rescue” three drug traffickers, the Philippine government has resorted to every means, to send two envoys. Previously, the Philippines has not executed committed a similar offense, said Chinese citizens hope for China to the Philippines drug tolerance. Chu Hao analysis, think about the matter so that Aquino III no face, so double retaliation elsewhere in China, but “China according to law, there is no way to compromise.”
move China more economic counter
obscure in today’s global financial crisis, China’s economic and trade cooperation with many countries, are equivalent to each other economy into the tonic. Aquino III, in fact, well versed in this, especially the Philippines’ largest trading partner, who the United States, still focused response to the debt crisis. Aquino III, after he took office, vigorously promote public-private partnership scheme (PPP) development of national economy and the urgent need of foreign capital into China is the focus for the investor.
April of this year, the Philippines, led by Finance Minister Cesar Preece horse more than access to high-ranking officials to visit Beijing and Shanghai, and vigorously promote the PPP program. In August, Aquino III’s visit to China, the Philippines signed a five-year economic and trade cooperation development plan for 2016 the bilateral trade volume exceeded 600 billion U.S. dollars. “You could say, Aquino III, the performance and support for China’s economic and trade are closely linked.” Chu Hao said. He further said that for the Philippines in the South China Sea issue of provocation, to counter China’s most practical means is the economy. “Just last month the two sides signed a series of trade agreements, but the signing is one thing, the Executive does not perform is one thing, the intensity of implementation is another matter. In addition, some of China’s low-interest loans for the Philippines and interest-free loans can be suspended or deferred delivery? “It is understood that the Philippines is China providing preferential export buyer’s credit than any other country, in the Philippines has committed to provide nearly $ 2 billion of such credit, a considerable portion used to improve Philippine infrastructure.
Asia-Pacific Academy of Social Sciences, Deputy Director Ye Hailin politics of “World News” that is now a kind of Filipino domestic point of view, that the Philippines can be great while doing business with China, while China continues on the South China Sea tough. If the Philippine side so playing two hands, then, China has every reason to separate the economic and political, no longer adhere to the original “appeasement policy.” “Economic and trade cooperation with the Philippines should be purely from an economic point of view to consider the interests, if this sale we can do to make money, but do not expect to use trade and investment and cooperation in exchange for the Philippines in the South China Sea to soften stance on the issue. Each other about pragmatism We also talk about pragmatism. “
Philippines Modan provoke a war
Although China literally holds the license to counter the Philippines, But China is still choose to use diplomatic means to solve the problem, always a big country demeanor. Chen Qinghong said, “this time, the Philippines, the purpose is to liven up the South China Sea issue, and we just put down the problem, try to make the problem through diplomatic means to be handled properly and if such a small issue further fermentation, may be the middle of the Philippines wants. “He also pointed out that” the Philippines is estimated to avoid the situation was too optimistic, go farther and farther, as it may lead to miscarriage of justice occurs in the South China Sea issue. you know, China is not afraid of war. “
Yin Zhuo also on the “World News” said: “The Philippines has no guts to provoke a war, once war is bound to provoke provoke beat the Philippines naval strength and defense strength is the weakest of the ASEAN countries, and the current economic situation is very bad Philippines in order to develop, must do a good job uniting China and ASEAN countries. “(Source: News of the World reporter/Li Ching)