U.S. arms sales policy was given a new mission
Rating agency in Hong Kong, October 24/Xinhua China Institute of International Relations, Renmin University professor Dr. Lin Hong, “China Review” magazine published a special article Oct. No. “field in the U.S. think tank the US-Taiwan arms sales.” Authors believe that the United States “to ensure that Taiwan is always in the United States can control the range, arms sales policy was given a new mission, that is, on the one hand, in a difficult to determine the length of the ‘status quo’ period remain binding on the Chinese mainland. On the other hand, to convey information to enhance US-Taiwan relations. “The United States’ current mainstream view is that China continues to support the implementation of the United States’ two-track ‘policy, that the strategic arms balance in the United States has an important role.” the article reads as follows:
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan to observe the ups and downs of Sino-US relations vane
strong or moderate: two Washington think tanks sound
2008 years, for China’s overall the strength of the rapid rise and a major turning point in cross-strait relations, American think tanks began to focus on an important issue, namely the establishment of Sino-US relations over the past three decades the foundation has been shaken, specifically, that is, to three Sino-US communiques and the “Taiwan Relations Act,” Ronald Reagan as a lever to ensure the balance of six strategy has been broken, U.S. arms sales policies need to re-adjust. The current mainstream view is that China continues to support the United States to implement the “double track” policy, that the strategic arms balance in the United States has an important role. However, because of the Sino-US relations in different settings, think tank scholars, in fact, the problem of arms sales to the existence of different ideas, can be divided into two factions.
(1) hard-line stance. The scholars of the basic point is that in order to maintain cross-strait military balance of power, the U.S. arms sales approach should be adopted to maintain or even increase its military support for Taiwan. There are two main reasons, one of China military build-up quickly and show a clear global strategy attempts, with the cross-strait military strength quickly opened, the two sides balance of power imbalance may contribute to China’s global ambitions, threatening the peace across the Taiwan Strait, it is worry; Second Ma Ying-jeou came to power after Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan arms sales period compared to a more favorable policy environment is, if the United States to sell weapons, in theory, now is the best time.
hold this hard-line stance on a number of scholars were relatively large. The scholars of the U.S. arms sales policy and the policy of Taiwan have criticized that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan should be sustained, otherwise it will bring in more trouble coming to the United States will also affect the U.S. position on Taiwan and other Asian security commitments to allies.
“arms sales to Taiwan should not be shelved for too long, if it continues there is no progress, the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense will be suspect.” Ma Ying-jeou has just assumed office, some scholars in the United States on arms sales was optimistic forecast, due to the executive and legislative bodies are vested in the hands of the ruling KMT, through the arms procurement bill should be much easier than during the Chen Shui-bian, “the United States will have the opportunity to provide a more stable military assistance to Taiwan.” However, Ma Ying-jeou took office but not as they wish to actively promote the US-Taiwan arms sales, but “deliberately delayed in order to improve cross-strait relations arms purchase,” so little progress in US-Taiwan arms sales.
often hidden behind the hard-line attitude of some profound concerns and the resulting germinal imagination. U.S. Naval War College scholar Michael Sanchez has been concerned about changes in China’s defense budget and military transparency, he believed that the Taiwan issue since 1997, the PLA has been an important driving force to achieve military modernization, and improved cross-strait relations since 2008, China’s China’s defense budget will be on the global stage with the broader political, economic and security interests together. He expressed concerns implicit in the performance of some scholars, there was likely to be more direct.
2009 In January, Mr. Blumenthal and the American Enterprise Institute fellow at Princeton University scholar Paul Fader co-authored in “America’s Asian Strategy Report” that after the rise of China as a great power in the diplomatic and military will take on the position uncertainty, “China’s military are making progress, Taiwan has no defense for their ability to do enough, while the U.S. to assist Taiwan in self-defense capabilities and to enhance the deterrent effect of China’s incentives, but also doing not enough. “” If Taiwan isolated to a degree of desperation, the government and people altogether surrender, to accept any conditions China if the U.S. allowed this to happen, and Asian allies Japan and South Korea will challenge U.S. security guarantee “from the text point of view, this is not an analytical approach, more recently on one emotional expression, lack of progress on China’s military is dangerous, they do not live up to expectations tantalizingly Taiwan, the United States indecisive frustrating, the author even further imagine the United States, Japan, South Korea security relationship will be affected by the impact of how and so on. Imagine such a departure from the United States to determine not only overestimated the impact of cross-strait relations within, over-the Ma Ying-jeou on the island to obtain consensus on the issue of arms sales to the possibility, more importantly, completely ignoring the efforts of both sides to build a harmonious relationship For ease military tensions significance.
there are some scholars who support the continuation of arms sales to Taiwan will firmly safeguard the independence of the United States policy, their concerns reflected in a stronger China’s potential impact on U.S. policy. February 2010, after Obama took office the first time in the case of arms sales to Taiwan before the announcement, the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) senior scholars Glaser said publicly that China not because of its importance to the U.S. and that could affect the U.S. decision, the U.S. arms sales policy will not be changed by foreign influence, China’s opposition not enough to stop the U.S. decision to sell F16, “if China is really looking forward to the importance of the United States can influence U.S. policy toward Taiwan to stop arms sales to the extent that I think they really misjudged the situation. ” Such a threat is Glaser’s position has always been the embodiment does not rule out such a possibility that she stood “unofficial” position that tough stance, had to balance the performance of soft stance on China’s government decision-making. All along, the American think tanks actually play such a role, they help the government can not be written into the formal policy expression of a variety of gestures, or help the government to test public opinion before the decision-making and other reactions. When the government is very strong, the think tank of the sound relative ease, and when the government had to choose soft, the think tank may be strategic to take a tough stance.
(2) moderate position. The scholars and the general problem of selling the interests of China-US relations link together need to also see the latest developments in cross-strait relations impact of U.S. policy. They believe that the U.S. policy of arms sales to Taiwan have an irreplaceable strategic value, but given the Sino-US relations and the overall situation of cross-strait relations, suggested that the U.S. should be based on the current changes, appropriate adjustments to its sales strategy to gradually reduce Taiwan for sale. In contrast, the school is weak voice in Washington.
University of Virginia, a China expert Harry Harding in March 2011 a seminar on the CSIS said that given the changes in cross-strait situation, the United States need to re-look at Taiwan (afresh look atTaiwan), and not his personal Some scholars worry that the Taiwan issue as China-US relations will bring a huge risk, U.S. arms sales to the United States can not be considered support for Taiwan independence, but merely reflects the United States to Taiwan’s security concerns. Not clear whether he should continue arms sales to Taiwan, but he’s “afreshlook” very interesting. I understand that even when people in Taiwan Taiwan’s security concerns are no longer their own, the United States arms sales to Taiwan’s security policy is bound to the ground shake, otherwise, can only be interpreted as defined in the U.S. In fact, Taiwan’s security and Taiwan’s own feelings nothing to do. East Asian Research Office, the Stimson Center also has a basic Romberg judge, that sales may create problems for cross-strait relations, if the impact on cross-strait relations, Ma Ying-jeou may choose to avoid angering Beijing, the U.S. should face up to this change. He believes that sales is a sensitive and controversial topic, but even this topic is very sensitive, and now the United States should also recognize that arms sales are facing a new and different framework for the previous phase. Some Americans want to see sales decrease, just wishful thinking, arms sales depends on the situation. If the two sides did reach a peace agreement, including effectively reduce the cross-strait military tensions, the United States should be able to tolerate, including sales to gradually decrease. On this issue, Romberg taking a realistic approach, for the sales function, have a more clear understanding of limitations.
CSIS Pacific Forum president Keluo Fu also think that the problem of dealing with arms sales to have a major impact on cross-strait relations, but how to continue arms sales policy on how to look at the development of cross-strait relations impact on the U.S.. He said the United States if it does not worry about Taiwan and the mainland more and more closely, they should carefully handle the arms sales to Taiwan, if the arms sales to Taiwan to handle cross-strait relations, it might screw up, once the breakdown of cross-strait relations, the United States will face have an even greater crisis. Ke Luofu not propose to stop U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, he proposed to deal with domestic political pressure, the United States should give priority to consensus has been reached but not yet implemented the arms sales, new cases can be further investigation of cross-strait situation and the strategic needs of the United States and then decide.
Overall, Obama on arms sales should take what kind of attitude, always within the United States there are two different voices. Some scholars have always mainland China as a potential threat. They worry that too close between the two sides, the United States out of control, desire to Taiwan as a strategic bargaining chip in the United States to give full play to the role, therefore, the issue of arms sales to claim Obama is not inclined to change the existing policy of arms sales, and even should speed up intensify and expand arms sales to Taiwan. Another group of people who think the United States for many years as a cross-strait stability is the result of complex factors should not be increased, runs the risk, but did not want to cause trouble, like Chen Shui-bian during the formation of the United States ‘strategic dilemma’, because arms sales policy sense may hinder the normal development of cross-strait relations, to reproduce if the cross-strait relations crisis, the U.S. “strategic dilemma” will once again appeared. Two opinions focusing on different, and thus calculate gains and losses are different, Obama would not want to come easily to decisions from the decision-making point of view, the policy balance to maintain the high technical difficulty but it is the inevitable choice. Before October 2011, the United States must decide whether to sell Taiwan F16C/D, as if the end is indeed, as reported by the media refuse to sell F16C/D, but to help Taiwan upgrade F16A/B, of course, is a usual practice of balancing strategy, As Paal said, the value of Taiwan’s identity and “defense” of the United States on the same side, Obama did not want to weaken Ma Ying-jeou, but if approved the F16C/D arms sales would “infuriate mainland” led to the Sino-US relations slow progress, the United States of course, very daring.
interpretation of the current period of U.S. arms sales policy intentions
U.S. arms sales to China-US relations is to observe the ups and downs of the citizenry. In 2008, the Bush administration to “easing the situation in the Taiwan Strait, as well as Beijing’s concerns” as an excuse to freeze arms sales to Taiwan, US-Taiwan arms sales issue a temporary impact on Sino-US relations have been alleviated. In 2009 Obama took office, the financial crisis is sweeping the U.S. and global, economic collapse in a severe crisis, Obama needs China’s cooperation and support, which in its relations with China’s focus is to promote the healthy Sino-US interaction and steady development, until Obama’s visit to China in November 2009, sales to the problem is basically not have much negative impact. However, in January 2010, the balance of internal pressure on China policy, Obama has re-filed direct impact on the Sino-US relations and the Dalai Lama visited the United States arms sales to Taiwan, in February, the U.S. government approved the 6.4 billion pairs of Taiwan sales case, the Sino-US relations, especially military relations between the two countries are facing new challenges. August 2011, 181 U.S. Congress members of both parties jointly wrote a letter to Obama, said that to ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as soon as possible to sell Taiwan F16C/D fighter aircraft, the U.S. government said that it would make a decision 10 months ago.
In fact, the U.S. government in this round of trade-offs, gains and losses calculated prior to the Washington think tank scholars have long been on the Sino-US relations and US-Taiwan arms sales policy, the relationship between a variety of complex trade-offs and calculation. The author of the United States during the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to continue arms sales policy is very interested in the intent and meaning, especially the interpretation of the scholars summarized and analyzed the following four categories.
First, check the theory. This is one of the most traditional interpretation of the most mainstream, that the arms sales to Taiwan is to continue to balance China, to protect the primary means of cross-Straits peace. All along, the American scholar may use force against Taiwan to the mainland are very wary and worried, JamesCrawford in its “international law in the country’s produce,” a book mentioned, “In any case, ‘the Chinese Communists’ attempt to use non-peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan problem necessarily constitute, under Article 33 of the Charter ‘may endanger international peace and security’ of the situation, … In this context, the boundaries between the two sides must be standardized meaning under the borders by force “, according to Crawford’s view, the so-called” force specification boundaries under the meaning of “is the sense of the boundaries of sovereignty, he is actually Taiwan as a sovereign state to discuss, and that the mainland and Taiwan should not be of force against it between the” boundaries “should be subjected to force the sense of to ensure there are no international constraints “may endanger international peace and security” situation.
Naval Analysis Center of Asia and China Research Program Director Fengde Wei pointed out that although mainland Chinese official attitude is inclined to peaceful reunification, but it does not forsworn the use of force as a single choice, so that Taiwan will inevitably produce defenses needs, taking into account the continental United States, the growing military capabilities, but also by the “Taiwan Relations Act” of the constraints, is bound to help Taiwan to ensure the safety of their defense. (Note 1) January 12, 2010, U.S. President John F. Kennedy Institute of wisdom Cook Lemon has written that the rapid growth in China’s military background, the U.S. government to sell Taiwan the “Patriot” missiles and other weapons systems only symbolic, and if the U.S. government really wanted to help raise Taiwan’s defense capability, cross-strait military balance, the U.S. must sell Taiwan more advanced F-22 Raptor fighter, and is equipped with SM-3 missile interceptor system, Aegis cruiser . These two views represent the position that the mainland to sell Taiwan enough to balance the military power, enough to ensure Taiwan’s security needs of the weapon is the need for strategic balance, as long as the mainland does not renounce the choice of a unified force, the United States will have to deal with . I believe that this is the legitimacy of American scholars on arms sales to Taiwan as a defense.
Secondly, confidence in the theory. The interpretation that the arms sales to Taiwan can enhance the current and future cross-strait relations, the status negotiations, the premise of its argument is that the overall strength of the differences between the two sides, but the two sides to maintain peace and development requires a roughly equal balance of power. Analysis Center of Feng Dewei Navy that has a decent defense capability of Taiwan, will become a more confident in Taiwan’s political, more willing to pursue with the mainland on both sides agree on political expediency, or, if the two sides position is far, cross-strait political talks on the delays in carrying out the process. August 2009, the Stimson Center East Research Office Romberg made a special point of view, that China does not have to hear every time a U.S. arms sales to Taiwan on the “nervous.” U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, “China advantage” because it will be more confident Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan people to the show, he not only cross-strait policy will not sacrifice Taiwan’s security and welfare of the people, and more to win firm support for the people of Taiwan. (Note 2) CSIS’s Glaser also believes that the new U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is an important psychological support, Taiwan needs to have confidence in Taiwan-US relations, because Taiwan in the case of insecure and vulnerable, not willing to negotiate with the mainland. No doubt, this is a completely fundamental to the legitimacy of the U.S. position and willing to defend, I believe that this interpretation can not be the mainland in addition to the understanding, it is equally difficult to get the people of Taiwan agree, imagine, when Taiwan’s backyard accumulation of a large number of various types of advanced US-made weapons, the people of Taiwan will be very confused, they are in the end is reconciliation with the mainland to support or not support?
Thirdly, peace theory. This view did not like the emphasis on checks and balances on the balance arms sales to Taiwan reunification by force, but that the United States from its national interests, the need to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait to prevent cross-strait conflict, arms sales to Taiwan is to protect the Taiwan Strait peace. January 12, 2010, Washington, DC think tank, “Nixon Center” researcher Doug class more in the “NationalInterest” published an article entitled “guns for peace” (Guns forPeace) long text, (Note 3) claims Obama Malaysia government should provide Taiwan with the necessary peace across the Taiwan Strait weapons. He pointed out that arms sales to Taiwan, the United States may be involved in cross-strait conflict is not the best way. United States should not be expected to protect the democratic and friendly country with nuclear power in the war, the United States should do is to assist the allies to improve self-defense forces, the enemy not to act rashly. Ban to clear the comparison of cross-strait military power, even if the U.S. sale of F-16C/D fighters to Taiwan, so Taiwan can not win on a full-scale war, so that the U.S. should do to strengthen Taiwan’s military, and not just a sale of some of the political symbolism weapons, Taiwan is a need to make the price higher than the other side to take stress from the military victory, because only strengthen Taiwan’s defense capability, in order to ensure the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue. According to the interpretation of multi-class, which is a three-way win-win policy, Washington is concerned, the required selling Taiwan weapons, war is better than the U.S. military intervention options; to Beijing, although not happy to see American arms sales to Taiwan , but way better than the US-Taiwan arms sales to form a formal military alliance with the less threatening; For Taiwan, it got what it wanted, and American weapons represented the United States support, and finally, the results of the three parties will benefit is – the Taiwan Strait peace. Must say that ban to the point of view and the fifties of last century the United States in East Asia brinkmanship has dark place.
Fourth, the red line theory. American think tanks there such an interpretation, namely, that “the United States in selling arms to the existence of a ‘red line’,” that is sold to the United States as long as only defensive weapons to Taiwan, China and the U.S. will not fall out. And this “red line”, is said to F16C/D fighter. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation February 1, 2010 reported that U.S. arms sales to China each question on the reason why the response is moderate and limited, the key point is that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan belong to the defense category, which is the US’s between a red line. Washington think tank CSIS scholars Glaser believes that “if China is opposed to some of the weapons sound than the sound of weapons against others flourished, is reasonable, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army more worried about U.S. sales of offensive weapons, if there is the so-called red line that the red line drawn in what is not clear. “(Note 4) Glaser’s nothing wrong,” red line “theory of the so-called” defensive “and” offensive “is a vague definition of uncertainty, such as who to define the defensive or offensive, defensive and attack the line between absolute or relative, and so on. When the F16C/D is defined as an offensive weapon and is assumed to be China’s bottom line, upgraded F16A/B is not that aggressive on it? “Red line” theory of the trap, trying to erase the political nature of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, as a position unrelated to the military and technical issues to deal with, seems to define what weapons are defensive or offensive, you can sell weapons within a specified range without compromising any of the Sino-US relations, the general problem of isolation for sale outside of China-US relations, sales is sales, politics is politics, the idea does not affect phase without disturbing each other, with too many idealistic wishful thinking. On this point, Glaser, already know, just as she said, “China is opposed to all arms sales to Taiwan project.”
future attention: US-Taiwan arms sales and cross-strait military mutual trust issues
2008 年 to ease cross-strait relations since there are two voices within the U.S. think-tank also asked to re-examine the basis for U.S. policy toward China, representatives of the two sound completely different attitude, one is that the U.S. must be tougher on China, requiring China to promote military transparency, as a responsible big country; other is that the U.S. should “treat each other starting with the Chinese to a friend “accept and adapt to the fact that China’s rise.
former U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Bill Owens in November 17, 2009 “Financial Times” published an article that the “Taiwan Relations Act” does not meet the best interests of the United States, if China has not increased in the coastal missile, the U.S. can stop arms sales to Taiwan. He believes that it should review the outdated “and the Taiwan Relations Act” to work with China to establish honest, trust and friendly relations. Owen’s view is representative of the second sound, but once made a fierce attack by immediately, Mr. Blumenthal said the American Enterprise Institute fellow, Owen’s proposal did not get any response in the United States, is a very isolated voice, he said Bill Owen, because in China there are economic and commercial interests, it will make such a recommendation. (Note 5) Mr. Blumenthal that the “Taiwan Relations Act” unshakable stand firm represents the first sound, louder than them.
two voices arguing against each other, cross-strait military mutual trust issues involved, and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with the mainland station missiles as a bargaining chip. On cross-strait military mutual trust mechanism (CBM) issues, as three sides and the United States have very different interpretations and expectations of future cross-strait negotiations should be an option, the conditions are far from mature. Taiwan that the CBM’s goal is to increase the opposing sides of each other’s decision-making mechanism and understanding of strategic intent, to avoid false positives caused by the conflict each other’s intentions, so the premise put forward by the mainland must be removed by the deployment of missiles to Taiwan. In mainland China, that is to adjust military deployment is not the subject of future cross-strait negotiations on the premise of military mutual trust is to “end the state of hostility, the two sides signed a peace agreement” as the goal, provided that in the future of Taiwan to reach political consensus on the issue, and since U.S. factors, especially the United States to continue arms sales to Taiwan, the establishment of cross-strait CBM is not realistic, even if we manage to establish and unreliable. America’s attitude is not opposed to the two sides through the establishment of CBM and other ways to seek peace in the Taiwan Strait, but also more inclined to want peace but do not support Taiwan’s reunification stance, insisting that arms sales to Taiwan is to ensure that cross-strait peace as a strategic tool. Mainstream American scholars generally believe that U.S. arms sales decision is based on the overall U.S. strategic interests in the Western Pacific considerations, and based on “a law three communiques” and “Reagan’s Six Assurances to Taiwan,” consisting of “one China” policy to facilitate the implementation of the U.S. strategic ambiguity or strategic Taiwan Strait maintain the balance of the important means. At the same time, they also believe that to be consistent U.S. policy toward China, Beijing and Taipei to prevent any party to be false positives; U.S. support for Taiwan strength and sound development of cross-strait relations should be grown. (Note 6) in the real level, since 2008 for the interaction between the two sides, the United States welcomed; but the face of China’s rising economic strength of the enormous pressure, it will still regard Taiwan as a defense on the need to continue to sell the relevant weapons to strengthen Taiwan’s dialogue with the mainland’s confidence. As Glaser said, “The U.S. approach is to strengthen and Taiwan’s political, military and economic relations, so that the Taiwan leader has enough self-confidence to the negotiating table, and the mainland negotiations CBM,” (Note 7) in some think tank scholars, one of Taiwan arms sales to Taiwan is to establish confidence in an important means to protect the future cross-strait CBM talks on such an important means; the other hand, they believe that arms sales decisions, the quality of Taiwan-US military cooperation, even the U.S. military in the Western Pacific deployment, have the protection of the Taiwan Strait issue, “peace, stability and peaceful settlement” of the key interests into account, and cross-strait CBM’s goal was not to establish contradictory.
Currently, under the conditions of peaceful development, being the threat of war across the Taiwan Strait does not exist, but the “peaceful reunification” of the possible scenarios and make some think tanks have a new concern. In order to ensure that the Taiwan Strait is always in the United States can control the range, arms sales policy was given a new mission, that on the one hand, in a difficult to determine the length of the “status quo” period remain binding on the Chinese mainland. On the other hand, to convey information to enhance US-Taiwan relations, Taiwan in handling cross-strait relations more independence, more clout and confidence. In Washington, officials from the think tank scholars, to discuss cross-strait peace agreement are clear and the CBM process, each bound to precondition. When the removal of missiles the mainland and Taiwan made further promise not to use force against Taiwan and other premise, Taiwan, mainland China will not only clearly stated commitment to the basic premise of not seeking independence, but also may involve the purchase of U.S. weapons to Taiwan to give up the problem. As a result, scholars are concerned that the overall imbalance of power in the case of the two sides, Taiwan might concede that this is the United States does not want to see. Once the U.S. policy of arms sales to Taiwan because of cross-strait CBM talks, due to Taiwan’s shaken and had to dispose of, the United States is bound to its strategic interests of the Taiwan Strait deeply disturbed, in the final analysis, to enhance Taiwan’s confidence or sense of security is only a pretext for it.
(Note 2), Mok Q, Chen by autumn: “The U.S. State Department officials indicated the United States to Taiwan five Taiwan-related policy priorities”, Phoenix, March 26, 2008, http://news.ifeng.com/taiwan/1/200803/0326-351-461134.html
(Note 3) WendellMinnick, “USFreezes $ 12B inArms Sales to Taiwan,” DefenseNews, 9 June, 2008; GlennKessler, “Top USOfficialsStalling Taiwan ArmsPackage, “Washington Post, 12June, 2008; Wendell Minnick,” $ 12Bin Taiwan Arms Deals suspended for Talks, “DefenseNews, 18 June, 2008.
(Note 4)” The Dragon’s Dilemma: A Closer Look at china’s Defense Budgetand Priorities “, MichaelS.Chase, Policy Memo ofProgressive Policy Institute (PPI), March2010.
(Note 5) Taiwan’s” Liberty Times “, January 14, 2009.
(Note 6) Wendell Minnick, “KMT Win Poses US-TaiwanChallenges,” Defense News, 31March, 2008.
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