United States Secret behind the scenes entirely: the United States this time you really want to give up Taiwan, the
the United States announced last month that about 60 billion dollars worth of Taiwan sale, “added tension to the Sino-US relations.” According to Taiwan, “Wang” reported that the U.S. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow at the history of Chinese culture project (MichaelD. Swaine) 9 28 in Washington, said, “The United States may eventually need to change Taiwan’s ‘Six Assurances’ “dialogue with the mainland. Reported that a Washington observers believe that abandoning the “Six Assurances to Taiwan” will be a major change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
Figure: Taiwan Strait Figure
so-called U.S.” Six Assurances to Taiwan “, including: the termination of arms sales to Taiwan does not set time limit; does not change the “Taiwan Relations Act”; not discuss arms sales to Taiwan and the mainland in advance; not play mediator between the two sides; do not change to “Taiwan’s sovereignty” position and does not negotiate with the mainland, Taiwan repression; does not formally recognize Taiwan’s mainland “sovereignty.”
1979 and the new China established diplomatic relations in the United States and with the Taiwan authorities’ diplomatic relations, “In April, U.S. President Jimmy Carter signed the so-called” Taiwan Relations Act “, and become a US-Taiwan arms sales to the so-called” legal basis. ” August 17, 1982, the two countries signed the “Shanghai Communique”, the U.S. promised to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan and eventually solve the problem. Meanwhile, the U.S. Reagan administration also made a verbal to Taiwan so-called “six guaranteed.”
as “six to ensure that” the United States “One China” policy contradictory. Washington think tank, recently said it might modify or even abandon the “six guarantees”, and released some important messages.
history text that Reagan when Taiwan’s “six guarantee” is not U.S. law, with with the passage of time, the U.S. needs to measure the overall interests of their own, “the U.S. policy, of course, on the interests of the United States.” He suggested that perhaps can be modified, including changes to the existing one to ensure, on arms sales to Taiwan and the mainland regarding the establishment of communication mechanisms.
Washington observers believe that China-US relations, how the future development of cross-strait relations, are currently in a very important juncture. United States to abandon the “Six Assurances to Taiwan”, in recent years may not be able to do, it is difficult to change long-term trend.
United States or to achieve geo-political deal
establishment of the United States during the Cold War system of deterrence is To control the Pacific, the Chinese sphere of influence of the potential scope and limits on the mainland. But China’s economic development into a military power gradually increased, in the process, to the United States poses a serious problem.
China to the U.S. to pressure (both rival and a partner) will continue to increase. Pacific region’s strategic status quo does not meet China’s national interests, denied the freedom to export it to the sea, and placed in its basic military activities under the control of the United States. Taiwan is legally part of China, the United States the most vulnerable deterrent system link. Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China will be leading the Pacific Beijing, freely and without control exports.
In addition to military and strategic on the importance of Taiwan to China economically and politically very important. China’s reunification under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, would mean that China can say that they achieved an important historical goal, of course, it will be important to ensure political dividends.
the United States fully aware of their deterrence strategy first pillars of importance, involving particularly sensitive to movements in Taiwan, will struggle to prevent or delay the reunification of China and Taiwan. In this respect, the current situation on the Korean Peninsula to resolve the Taiwan issue is an important factor, because the Chinese could learn given the opportunity, and the United States reached a major geo-political deal.
North Korea out of date, difficult to maintain the regime not only against China but is cumbersome. Therefore, North Korea, China and the United States an ideal bargaining chip in negotiations. Beijing may be in favor of imposing severe sanctions on North Korea or North Korea to take punitive military action to remain neutral on the condition that the United States agreed to a unified China and Taiwan.
dangerous the Korean Peninsula once the changes This “exchange” is likely to be the only possible options the United States. U.S. will not allow full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, particularly because North Korea may decide to launch a nuclear attack their southern compatriots, which South Korea, Japan may have caused irreparable harm.
On the other hand, if North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program to produce enough nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, Japan and South Korea may follow suit, considering manufacturing its own nuclear bomb. This way will result in military and political situation in East Asia upheaval. In the dramatic escalation of these negative trends, Washington is almost no chance to exert their influence.
Therefore, Taiwan and North Korea to take geo-political exchange is beneficial to the United States and China. So the U.S. can follow their own ideas to resolve the North Korean issue, China and Taiwan also have the opportunity to unity, and uninhibited access to the Pacific Ocean. Which I think all parties are reluctant United States, especially China.
the Moscow Lomonosov State University Assistant Professor – Allier克谢皮尔科 recognize Taiwan and North Korea to take geo-political exchange is beneficial to the United States and China. So the U.S. can follow their own ideas to resolve the North Korean issue, China and Taiwan also have the opportunity to unity, and uninhibited access to Pacific . In this regard I think all parties are reluctant United States, especially China.
First, North Korea’s strategic location is the importance of China, China North Korea has a significant interest, the first Korean buffer zone between China and the ROK, leave alone the United States, South Korea and Koreans shameless and aggressive personalities, repeatedly violent seizure of our vessels. March 3, Han Guohai Police shot the first time to our fishermen. Therefore, we hope is a poor neighbor North Korea, do not want to be a strong Korea. In addition, the United States and South Korea is an ally, North Korea is the United States to contain China, a buffer zone. If the reunification of Korea to South Korea, the Yellow Sea that is now the Sea of ??Japan, the U.S. aircraft carrier ships can dock.
see Washington aircraft carrier last year, swaggering into the United States to China and photographed Shandong peninsula photos, complete a challenge to Chinese portal, a direct threat to the Beijing-Tianjin region, the Chinese political and diplomatic pressure and military pressure with the. But also the 37,500 U.S. troops and a buffer zone between, if Korean reunification, the United States in the Korean and Chinese border surveillance in China, is fully exposed to heavy industrial base in Northeast China in the United States. Also, although North Korea has been a great assistance in China, but there are more and more Chinese enterprises invest in North Korea and North Korea due to low and rich coal resources, bilateral trade volume in 2008 reached $ 2.79 billion.
Second, the law of Taiwan is China’s territory, Washington Unified . While the Pacific region’s strategic status quo does not meet China’s national interests, China’s Taiwan, not back away from the ocean leading to by exports, and will basically put its military activities under the control of the United States. However, you can see the mainland across the Taiwan Straits has been tilted, the strengthening of military power with the mainland, Taiwan will return in the near future. In addition, the containment of China on the coast, because the law say that Taiwan is part of China, Taiwan, the U.S. deterrent system so the most vulnerable part.
the old United States, Taiwan from the last century 50 years old United States will help Taiwan’s defense continent. Once the recovery of Taiwan is China, China will have the freedom to export to the sea, the old U.S. arms to Taiwan, is also awarded to the Chinese absorbed. Also, a unified China challenges the United States far more than now, Taiwan is the United States to obstruct China is an important powerful banner.
why the Russians always make some unrealistic ideas, but also like to state that North Korea can not be measured by money.
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