Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

data for: Gaddafi

Zhuangao Xinhua (Xinhua military commentator Kong Xianglong) to push everyone down the wall, broken mess of people pounding drums. This week, Gaddafi on the taste of this experience.

5 27, the closing of the G8 summit, Russia and the Group of Eight other members eventually signed a “Declaration of Deauville”, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi should agree to step down. Medvedev agreed to act as “facilitator” and sent a special envoy to visit Libya Benghazi stronghold of the opposition, and said Gaddafi to step down, “regardless of Libya, or the Libyan people will benefit.” June 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that Russia does not consider Gaddafi to provide “immunity or any protection.”

from the former “close ally” to today as “political corpse”, the Russian attitude to the Gaddafi suddenly “fade.”

So what exactly is Russia’s choice “sacrifice” Gaddafi? Why choose this time to “sacrifice” Gaddafi not support NATO from the outset? Although we are not “WikiLeaks”, not that one of the insider, but I think, from the following aspects can still see some clues.

First, the changing attitude of Russia, Russia has begun to reflect the “Houkazhafei era” of Libya to the layout, the Libyan oil and gas resources to do completely fall into the hands of the opposition to prepare. In addition to oil, Russia and Libya still has a huge multi-billion dollar arms trade, if Gaddafi won the West will be long-term arms embargo, and if the opposition wins, is bound to a large number of procurement European and American products, these two results will make the Russian bear huge losses. But bargain with the opposition in advance, you can minimize this loss, even in the reconstruction process must be purely monetary benefits.

Secondly, a change in attitudes in Russia, a critical moment, there are three news worthy of special attention.

First, France on May 26 announced the sale of four to Russia, “Northwest Wind”-class helicopter carrier reached an agreement with Russia. French President Nicolas Sarkozy before the start of the G8 summit meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Sarkozy announced the meeting Hou Sake, France and Russia have “Northwest Wind”-class ships trading to reach a final agreement, talks between the two countries which had experienced several times ups and downs and stalled. Does France have been eager to take Russia’s “West Wind” as a “betrayal” of Gaddafi’s chips, the outside is not known, but according to the Associated Press reported, G8 Summit, held in Deauville, France, the United States President Barack Obama, President of France Sarkozy, Dmitry Medvedev, who has been actively lobbying to promote Russia’s attitude hardened against Libya. From the current results, “Northwest Wind” is probably the United States and Europe to persuade Russia and one of the important bargaining chip.

Second, the Russian Federal Military Technical Cooperation Agency 27, said that Russia will sell 21 m U.S. military -17 military helicopter, equipped with the Afghan Air Force, each priced at $ 17.5 million helicopter. In France and Russia “West Wind” of the negotiations, twists and turns one of the reasons is the U.S. opposition, but the reason why France and Russia to negotiate, the United States no longer opposed to is the key factor. Arguably, the United States not only did not oppose the Russian fire trade law, but also the “fertilizer into the others’ cost 300 million U.S. dollars to buy Russian helicopters is indeed” a lot of blood. ”

Third, the Group of Eight leaders in the “Declaration of Deauville,” said: “Russia’s G8 partners committed to active cooperation with Russia will help them in the years to join the World Trade Organization.” As the world’s not yet joined the WTO last major economies, Russia hopes to end long-distance race in 2011, the mood is very urgent to join the WTO, although the European Union late last year signed an agreement with Russia to support Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization, the United States last year. support, but if a critical moment in the WTO, Yinkazhafei trouble with the United States and Europe is too stiff, Russia had to be afraid of.

Gaddafi in Russia to abandon a key moment in this three news is necessarily linked with, although not conclusive, but the attitude of the U.S. and Europe and Russia, the result of choice, I am afraid not only is a coincidence.

Finally, Russia’s change in attitude, public relations victory for the Libyan opposition. Libya, “the National Transitional Council,” Ali, deputy director of the Executive Committee ? Esa Wei told Xinhua News Agency reporters after the opposition’s messenger with the Russian representatives in Moscow, the Russian opposition has been a positive response. Libyan opposition leaders, “the National Transitional Council,” the main Xijialile May 28 also said that Russia has made the opposition welcomed the Libyan policy adjustments. In a “relatively weak” Libyan opposition, in order to get Russia’s recognition, may be out of its very favorable conditions, and recognition of the Libyan opposition government, Russia on the future of Libya from the reconstruction process may be obtained relatively more earnings .

we turn reasoned that, if Russia did not abandon Gaddafi, Europe and America, “Sike” in the end, it is likely that such a situation: the other seven countries and the G8 tensions and France, “West Wind” or even the continued deadlock in negotiations on abortion, and U.S. helicopters trade fell through, the desire to join the WTO during the year 2011 fall in the loss of billions of dollars of Libyan arms trade and the reconstruction process in the future, nothing. I believe this, Russia is in any case want to see, from this point of view, the Russian situation and abandon Gaddafi, is not so hard to understand.

If we put this event into the history of the coordinate system, you will find alliances and betrayal on the international stage is very common, to weave the story is often staged. The national interest or personal interest, bad faith, may be the last war ally, the next war may be the enemy.

Gaddafi abandoned from the analysis and historical experience, we can get a glimpse into the international military and political struggles in some of the “hidden rules”:

First, there is no eternal friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests. International political and military struggle not for “virtuous” to seek the maximization of national interests, Gaddafi is this exchange of interests of the victim.

Second, military power is the fundamental means to ensure national interests, should not relax any time of military construction. Only a strong military power, energy and other “mutual assured destruction”, to maintain a “balance of terror” is the fundamental national survival, which is the Western idea of ??a continuation of the old balance of power. In recent years, Gaddafi and the West in the “reconciliation” in the construction of military power has been relaxed, the “strips” is today incapable of deterring the opponent, a fatal blow to the opponent’s root causes.

Third, the principle of national sovereignty, often become a “system of decoration.” On the one hand the traditional principles such as respect for national sovereignty and national independence, sovereign equality, noninterference in internal affairs is still seen as the cornerstone of international relations, but on the other hand, almost of national sovereignty in all areas is being eroded and challenges. International humanitarian intervention violates the sovereignty of many countries, such as today’s Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

Fourth, the interests of big powers still decide to move toward the international situation. Gaddafi is not “too stupid too naive” blind faith ally, but he did everything on the power, power that is the reality of justice do nothing.