Analysis to build a Chinese aircraft carrier battle group, said the total cost of approximately $ 10 billion
Data for: being Dalian modified Kuznetsov aircraft carrier
China’s aircraft carrier can avoid re-take the road to the Soviet Union old, how to use limited resources to build an effective carrier force? Canadian Forces College naval strategist Paul T. Professor Mitchell reminded that China’s aircraft carrier project seeks to increase the combat effectiveness of the process may face the challenge of the year the former Soviet Union, “aircraft carrier battle group to become a powerful, integrated large number of vessels, aircraft weapons systems and the skills necessary and indispensable … It really will depend on China’s level of resources into the project. “China can manage these challenges in order to support the ambitious economic development projects is still some time before the Navy observation point is worthy of attention,” the Navy and Air Force will try at the same time promote the modernization of their team, to the global level, competition for resources may increase. ”
Post intern reporter Wu Ting Ruan two pairs
the 1980s, when the Soviet Union began efforts to build aircraft carrier battle groups on the occasion, “Kuznetsov” was a sister ship, “Library Ziniezuofu “aircraft in accordance with the original design should be a displacement of 9 million tons of nuclear powered super-carrier, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and the United States belong to a modern heavyweight. However, because of the huge investment budget and the complexity of modern aircraft both underestimated, leading to the Russians eventually forced to cut programs, the construction of the planned four to reduce the number two, “Admiral Kuznetsov” displacement down to 6.5 million tons of steam catapults are sliding tilt replaced by fly-of-flight deck, nuclear power is forced to give up … … Although the “Admiral Kuznetsov” design still seems enough to deter today, but a period of three Ten years ago often still a profound lesson brought by the U.S. scholar, reflect on their own over-large aircraft carrier program, but also an emerging country, China did not forget to beat the road carrier.
“look Chinese People’s Liberation Army is not only acquired a Soviet-era aircraft carrier, the more far-reaching, it implanted into the Soviet era, the rise of world powers seek to establish a blue-water navy fantasy … … such as the Soviet Union/Russia, China is a land of national, even a growing economy, Beijing will not have (sufficient) resources while creating an effective land and air forces as well as blue-water navy. “U.S. defense analyst with Lexington Institute Daniel Gul (DanielGoure) recently wrote an article in the Western world has a certain influence, he tried to be China’s first sea trials of the aircraft carrier “Kuznetsov” and the aircraft carrier project poured a pot of cold water. However, it is alert, he will lead the way to question the way of a carrier can not avoid the critical areas: resource bottleneck.
the road of China’s aircraft carrier can avoid re-take the old Soviet Union, how to use limited resources to build an effective carrier force? Canadian Forces College naval strategist Paul T. Mitchell (PaulT.Mitchell) professor reminded that China’s aircraft carrier project seeks to increase the combat effectiveness of the process may face the challenge of the year the former Soviet Union, “aircraft carrier battle group to become a powerful, integrated large number of vessels, aircraft and weapon systems necessary to skills are indispensable … It really will depend on China’s level of resources into the project. “he told the Oriental Morning Post, China can manage these challenges in order to support the ambitious economic development projects is still some time before observation of the Navy, he raised the point worthy of attention is the “Navy and Air Force will try to promote at the same time, the modernization of their team, to the global level, competition for resources may increase.”
former U.S. military attaches, retired Rear Admiral McVadon (EricMcVadon) told the Oriental Morning Post, China’s aircraft carrier of the road with Chinese characteristics is the road to naval aviation, “a relatively low cost of ownership a useful maritime air forces, “” Now is not the time to build a huge aircraft carrier … China certainly would not try to match or surpass the U.S. aircraft carrier (battle groups). carrier expensive and (technical) demanding, I is expected that China’s combat aircraft and the number will be moderate. “
battle budget shortfalls and resources
2010 years ago, the Chinese Navy within a critical debate around the field, “carriers and nuclear submarines who get the most of the construction of the resources” to start. Vigorously carry out a number of advocates the construction of nuclear submarines that the Navy commanders, including nuclear attack submarines (SSN), strategic ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and the new surface ships, including, this is a strategic fleet, able to generate enough ships to deter hostile so far from Chinese territory; while another group of generals behind the aircraft carrier project is given on the grounds that long-distance carrier in the waters with the ability to perform tasks that can protect China’s “lifeline” – the security of sea lanes of energy transport .
Once upon a time, that debate is unthinkable but also unnecessary, because the lack of years in the budget, any dream can only be shelved carrier. The most obvious example occurred in the late 1970s, when access to national leaders (Hua) approved the procurement of a light aircraft from overseas plan – or to import or joint production, because the British suppliers bid “too high “and was forced to cancel. That time, China’s annual defense budget of the average of about 17 billion yuan, of which less than 6 billion yuan for weapons procurement.
According to the 2004 book “Memoirs of Liu Huaqing,” described as the “father of China’s aircraft carrier” of Liu Huaqing, in the 1980s has admitted, “The Navy does not want to build aircraft carriers have a short time Now national not, it seems to wait for some time. ” In 1987 the Chinese aircraft carrier development proposal, the funding issue is also an important factor in his considerations, “from the financial point of view, in the current year and assessed in the future, do not need to spend too much money.” Liu was a clear request ” compared to demonstrate the full use of aircraft, air carrier aircraft with the use of land-based division, tankers, shore-based aircraft operations cost-effective. ” Later, the Central Military Commission, and he also “requires equipment National Defense and the Department of General Staff, put the carrier on the development of pre-research costs, development costs, equipment costs combined, co-ordination arrangements. And given to ships, aircraft, weapons, electronic equipment, development planning, rather than large projects are hung on the aircraft carrier where special arrangements, make great plans, so that the higher can not study. “
2000 year, the Hong Kong media quoted Russian sources revealed that, since Since 1992, Beijing began to study the feasibility of the construction of the local carrier, the so-called “9985 Project”, the study concluded in 1999. In 2000, Beijing intends to invest 4.8 billion yuan to build conventionally powered aircraft carrier, at a time when the first phase of the approved budget of 10 billion yuan (U.S. side of the argument is that the Chinese leadership in 1993, approved dozens of plans for this project billion budget, but inconsistent with the authority described in the literature until the early 1980s, China’s annual defense budget on average about 170 million yuan).
compared to the huge investment of aircraft carrier battle group projects, pre-2000 arms procurement budget are obviously inadequate. “Since the beginning of the 1990s, despite the (Chinese) national defense budget to maintain the growth momentum, but this increase has not kept pace carrier (battle) cost increase, because of modern design into a more advanced aircraft, air defense systems and electronics industry, “U.S. Naval War College professor Nan told the Oriental Morning Post,” to give priority to funding research and development submarine. “
until after the year 2007, China’s foreign exchange reserves and the country’s financial situation took a significant improved defense budget increase. According to official U.S. estimates China’s one-third of public defense budget – in 2007, approximately $ 15.3 billion – to use a weapon procurement. “Given the modern Navy is now a high priority, the Chinese navy may now be billions of dollars each year for arms procurement in the future this figure may increase.” Nan says. It now appears that the “aircraft carrier group” appears in the debate has regained attention. Foreign observers generally believe that China’s aircraft carrier construction accelerated in 2009, when the Chinese navy held its 60th anniversary. At the same time, there is news that the Chinese navy is in the same year ordered the two major domestic shipyards 60,000 t aircraft carrier, plans to start in 2009, completed in 2015.
the aircraft carrier construction program in the eyes of some Western observers, China was included in the second phase of the road carrier, the first stage is purchased from overseas scrapped aircraft carrier (this process from 1985 was extended to 2002) to easily study the structure and components, such as the former Soviet Union is about to test the water “import”, “Kuznetsov” was one example. As the “recovery scrap the complexity of the aircraft carrier itself is tantamount to the construction of a new aircraft carrier” for China’s domestic carrier in terms of the construction plan undoubtedly has important reference value. But twelve is clearly not the time period before and after the relay in between the two complementary, not mutually exclusive.
“Kuznetsov” was finally launched, and how to enter service from knowing how much there is no cost, but just from the initial investment and the expected return point of view, the general view of the outside world is China’s overseas trading than this India has done pretty similar transactions. According to the Russian military news network reported that in 2010, from the purchase of the “Kuznetsov” was to the shipment back to China’s Dalian Shipyard, for a total cost of about $ 30 million (including $ 5 million repair transportation costs). Australian Defence who Scott Cooper (ScottCooper) that “for China’s real income is from (‘Kuznetsov’ number) out of the (ship) development and modernization of skills will directly contribute to China’s future aircraft carrier construction. “In contrast, the same way to get through overseas purchase the former Soviet Union aircraft carrier” Admiral Gorshkov “(AdmiralGorshkov) number is $ 2.3 billion spent in India, and Russia is still in the shipyard for final modification, “the risk is far larger and larger aircraft to master the ability to lower operational.”
Australian National University, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, a senior fellow and former senior Defense Department official Winwise Scunthorpe (RonHuisken) told the Oriental Morning Post, the aircraft carrier project forward is a significant decision, and China for the cost-benefit analysis. “Chinese people on these things very orderly manner with their viability will be considered to maintain – even in the offshore region – the minimum required (aircraft carrier) and the number of aircraft carrier battle groups associated with significant costs. “He said,” combat aircraft in the test and prove, I think China will be too slow and cautious, so to minimize the adverse political differences, but also to what kind of aircraft should be the ultimate benchmark to make a wise decision. “
two medium-sized aircraft carrier battle groups appropriate
depending on the type and displacement, the carrier’s costs and capabilities are different. If China’s labor and material costs are relatively low factors into account, the construction of a medium-sized, conventionally powered 60,000-ton aircraft carrier-driven – like Russia’s “Kuznetsov” class aircraft carrier – is expected to take 20 billion.
but this investment is just the beginning, the aircraft carrier to enter the service must be equipped with carrier-based aircraft and escort teams. If the Russian equipment, for example, then set out a Russian-made Su-33 fighter aircraft worth about $ 50 million this projection, a team of 50 Su-33 fighter planes, aerial early warning aircraft number, the number of anti-submarine and search and rescue helicopters Carrier Air Wing formed to take more than 30 billion U.S. dollars; a Russian-made modern class missile destroyers will cost about $ 600 million, which is not difficult to calculate, one of several missile destroyers frigates, supply ships The convoy of the cost of more than 40 billion dollars. In other words, the total cost of a carrier battle group of about 100 billion U.S. dollars, of course, this does not include routine training, annual maintenance and fuel consumption, according to the U.S. experience, the carrier is expected to cost 10% of construction costs around a carrier battle group also said the additional spending in other than $ 200 million.
in the Chinese defense observers view, this calculation down the cost of two medium-sized aircraft carrier battle groups in the sharing of the development period to 10 years, after which, China’s defense budget for weapons procurement for the Navy’s part in terms of percentage is actually quite modest.
but whether China will be satisfied with this, the U.S. will keep a close eye to further build its own nuclear-powered super-aircraft carriers, the parties are still different views. Russia’s arms trade center world view is that China will be 2015-2016 and 2020, respectively, in two stages and the construction of two conventional nuclear-powered carrier, plans to build four aircraft carrier battle groups deployed in the South China Sea and East China Sea. January 2010, the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) an accidental slip of their size and composition of the Chinese navy’s confidential report posted on the network, although they quickly remove these elements from the Internet, but the contents of the report in one day still spread throughout the world in major defense sites. In this 47-page called “Chinese characteristics, a modern navy,” the report, the Office of Naval Intelligence that China’s navy “ambitious” construction plan, the Dalian Shipyard and Shanghai, at the same time of 7-8 ten thousand tons of aircraft carrier construction. “The new aircraft is believed to use the conventional power-driven (some people think one is conventionally powered, the other one is nuclear) and the steam catapult.” Wrote the report.
not to build super-carrier
Just recently, China’s most famous aircraft carrier specialist, Senior Colonel Li Jie joined the Navy to “what China needs aircraft carrier “in this discussion. “China as a maritime power, the more need for medium-sized aircraft carrier, he wrote recently in the media,” China’s development of aircraft carriers, no need to hover in a small tonnage, we are likely to first learn from experience in the construction of medium-sized aircraft carrier, the time is ripe, and then map a larger development. “
U.S. Naval War College Nan said that China’s development road carrier may be incremental. The medium term, China may build a medium-sized aircraft carrier to serve the offshore tasks, and lack of access to the actual experience; but in the long run, China can develop more large-scale ocean carrier for the task. “Chinese naval analysts have for the major U.S. carriers, including the most advanced ‘Gerald Ford’ (GeraldR.Ford) aircraft carrier (90,000 tons or more drainage) and its related technologies, is particularly interested. In addition, there are indications that the construction of large aircraft carriers involved in some of the key technical issues of research are carried out simultaneously. “Nan in his latest paper on China’s aircraft carrier wrote.
Li Jiezhuan paper advocates, in the long run, oil and gas resources for a need for more and more imports from foreign countries, large Choose medium-sized nuclear-powered warship, is a worthy effort to try as the world’s largest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the United States “Nimitz” nuclear power has a displacement of about 10 tons per vessel cost of about $ 4.5 billion, up carrier-based fighter capable of carrying 90 while still in the construction of the fourth-generation aircraft, “Ford” class cost is even more alarming, only the construction budget is over $ 10.5 billion. “certainly not (made) super-carrier … (although ) cost is unknown, but certainly not with the U.S. aircraft carrier forces into an order of magnitude. “Current American Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA), director of Asian Affairs of the McVadon talk about the road to the Chinese aircraft carrier told the Oriental Morning Post.
former U.S. Navy Rear Admiral believes that the PLA is unlikely to delivery in the near future with the military aircraft, “aircraft carrier to run a much more difficult than expected, but much more expensive, into a real combat capability of the process will be very slow, if China’s pace of key weapons systems as a reference, then digest . “He said, and further asked,” non-aggressive, non-expansionary why China will invest heavily on military aircraft? “
China’s domestic naval analyst Shima Yao also said that China does not and can not build” Nimitz “class heavy nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, combat power can not be compared with the U.S. aircraft carrier.” China’s industrial base and technological capabilities far and the United States simply can not afford to build such a large nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. “He told the Oriental Morning Post, in his view, the Chinese navy has no intention to establish a global reach capability, and Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is the ability to precisely established.” Aircraft carrier, after all, is not the world’s most high-tech military with weight equipment, the human war has now developed to the system compete for space supremacy and the right of the electromagnetic power is the highest stage of the system, the Navy is not the main battle armed services, the aircraft carrier is no longer the key to decide the outcome on the battlefield strength. “From the military point of view of Ma Yao said,” The future of military technology, national development priorities, including China, or in space and information space. This is a historical necessity. “
Australian National University defense expert Winwise Scunthorpe (RonHuisken) also believes that, taking into account the direct costs and costs associated with escort carrier platform, the Chinese super-carrier may refuse the temptation to choose a larger number , the dominant mobile platform at sea smaller, although China will study and learn from the experience of U.S. aircraft carrier, but may be a very different, the structure of the Navy aircraft carrier being placed in the way.
For the number of China’s aircraft carrier, now more popular, “three said” and “four said.” aircraft carrier maintenance very difficult, the general duty and maintenance time is roughly 2:1 is generally considered to form an effective fighting force, at least have to have three aircraft carriers: a duty at sea, a sea area between the base and mobile stand, as a reserve, as well as a maintenance in the shipyard. “China has never before been equipped aircraft, the pilot and crew training needs start from scratch, be sent abroad for training, unrealistic, only their own organization, training, which requires training aircraft carrier, that is, four said. “Ma Yao said.
In fact, for the future aircraft carrier the size and shape, are arguing within the U.S. Navy U.S. Navy Historical Foundation historian David Winkler (DavidWinkler) to the Oriental Morning Post, for example, taking into account the development of light unmanned aerial vehicles, the new under construction, “Gerald Ford” class aircraft carrier is considered to become a heavy burden.
Swedish Security and Development Policy Institute, Chinese People’s Liberation Army expert Shi Wantong (NiklasSwanstrom) told the Oriental Morning Post, China’s road and experience different, he suggested that the Chinese military to examine its own strategic needs rather than looking at the U.S. military look. “I To put too much mind you, be careful. For trying to want to build a massive army like the United States I am very cautious. “He said,” China needs to understand their strategy in the end what is, how best to achieve this demand. Instead of saying how the U.S. competition. Copy the U.S., will eventually costly. “(edit: SN049)
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