Former Japanese Self-Defense Forces generals: in Japan there are three kinds of potential conflicts Navy
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LONDON, January 8 News: U.S. Center for Strategic Studies published in Japan 5 former Minister of Defense Agency intelligence, is Japan’s Defense Security and Crisis Management Education University Center Kyuma Ohta (Fumio Ota) article, a detailed analysis of China’s naval forces and their impact on Sino-Japanese relations. Kyuma Ota said in the article also lists the three Sino-Japanese naval presence in a potential conflict.
Kyuma Ota said that in recent years, China’s growing naval power, but its goal is not only limited to Taiwan, but the entire region of “hegemony”, and eventually become a world-class power. Kyuma Ota that China since the 1980s, began to adjust naval strategy from coastal defense to offshore defense transformation; recent years, with an increase in imports of foreign oil, China is increasingly dependent on maritime security, which accelerated the People’s Liberation Army Navy strategic change.
former Japanese military officer: the Sino-Japanese conflict, three kinds of speculation
Kyuma Ota that, although Chinese leaders have demanded that Japan learn from history and facing the future, the leaders are also working towards the friendly direction, but still exists between the Navy and Japan are three possible situations of conflict:
First, Japan could be involved in the Taiwan Strait conflict. Kyuma Ota believes that if the conflict between the Taiwan Strait, war intensity are very high, but the outbreak of the conflict is unlikely. In 2008, the military balance between cross-strait relations, mainland China has been moving in a favorable shift in the direction. In particular, to the number of personnel in the Navy and fourth-generation combat jet fighter, the mainland have the clear advantage.
Second Sino-Japanese conflict may be due to the Diaoyu Islands issue. Kyuma Ota believes that this medium-intensity conflict, its likelihood of occurrence is 50%. China and Japan both claim sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands, China Marine Department research vessel patrolling regularly to the Diaoyu Islands, Japan has also been movement, there is both “accidental discharge” as well.
third suspect is a possible outbreak of a conflict of interest at sea. Kyuma Ota said that this conflict could include the East China Sea oil resources, China is Japan’s exclusive economic zone of monitoring behavior, although the kinds of low intensity conflict, but the likelihood is very high.
proposal for joint naval exercises in Japanese
Kyuma Ota believes that to avoid conflicts at sea in the day, must take a series of rebuilding trust measures. First, the two sides should carry out port visits, naval personnel and ships to increase the communication efforts. Kyuma Ota to relations with Russia as an example, in less than a decade after the Cold War period, Japan and Russia by signing agreements dealing with maritime accidents, the defense policy of information exchange, to carry out naval exercises between the two countries, as well as naval forces each visits and other means, the rapid elimination of the confrontation between the two sides of the original mood, to establish some trust.
Secondly, Kyuma Ota Japanese Navy is now considering the proposed holding joint naval exercises. In his view, the PLA and the communication between the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force exercise, coordinated the development of basic combat capability is essential. Next, the two navies held to further consider the humanitarian exercises, joint maritime search and rescue, disaster relief, and submarine rescue missions. Kyuma Ota said that if the young PLA officers and men with an opportunity to contact with Japanese counterparts, they will find no attempt of aggression by Japanese soldiers, Japan Self-Defense Force weapons is defensive in nature. Similarly, if the Japanese Self-Defense Forces personnel to visit the PLA facility, you can learn from China’s defense experience.
Japan-Japan military exchanges of the five focus
Kyuma Ota said that Japan’s development of China’s naval forces, mainly concentrated in five areas concerned :
1. military exchanges between China and Japan on the understanding of differences. Kyuma Ota that China’s military exchanges with Japan, the purpose of more clear-cut: First, China wants to grow his own military; Second, China hopes to reduce the hostile exchanges, and access to advanced military technology from Japan; Third, military exchanges can by the show of military strength to China, declared a deterrent; Fourth, this exchange will help break the China threat theory, to help China achieve publicity purposes; Fifth, China military exchanges through foreign military intelligence to collect information, such as their status and modern trends. China and Japan may also take the exercise to dismember the US-Japan relations. Kyuma said Ota, Japan to promote exchanges in the Japanese military motives were simpler, that is, with the military exchanges to build mutual trust, increase transparency and reduce the risk of conflict.
2. Japan concerned about China’s submarine force construction. Kyuma Ota said in the article, from 2001 to 2005, China has built 16 submarines, the figure is just the number of Japanese have all the submarines. The next five years, China will build 20 submarines. Kyuma Ota said the end of 2007, China’s submarine base deployed in the North Sea Fleet, which means it wants to enter the high seas, bound through the southeast coast of Japan. In November 2007, China’s latest “gold” class nuclear submarines deployed to Hainan Island, which the Chinese can be more convenient to enter the deep waters. Japan is concerned, the submarine may threaten the future of Japan’s maritime security line.
3. Japan is also highly concerned about China’s cyber warfare and anti-satellite warfare capability. Kyuma Ota said that since January 2007, the missile hit the satellite test, China may be carried out for the local state of network attacks. If the People’s Liberation Army and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands waters conflict, China might attack the network in Japan.
4. Japan concerned about China’s intelligence spying activities. Kyuma Ota that China has many spies in Japan, these people might steal advanced technology from Japan. In addition, Japan also deeply concerned about China’s development and application of “strategic deception”, the most obvious example is that China will use force as an important non-military sources.
5. In addition, Japan also deeply concerned about China’s development and application of “strategic deception”, the most obvious example is that China will use force as an important non-military sources. (Spring)