Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

Data for: North Korean Taepodong missile test-firing
3 17, the U.S. military successfully launched the” end of the high-altitude area defense “system, the recent North Korean missile interception test

peninsula of turmoil and crisis of this series are derived from the North Korean nuclear issue, the State had the opportunity on this issue leads to the inevitable result of the policy doctrine. This is just the beginning. As long as the North Korean nuclear problem is not resolved, the Korean Peninsula and the East Asian turmoil and crisis will not subside, but will worsen

Wen/Zhang Liangui

the Korean peninsula 2009 is bound to be eventful.

1 17, with South Korea, North Korea abruptly announced into the hard-line “full fight” state, 30, and then announced a unilateral repeal of South Korea signed a cessation of political and military confrontation the entire agreement, and said in Korean ” the brink of war. ” March 9 to 20, the US-ROK code-named “critical determination” unprecedented joint military exercises, the theme was to test if something Peninsula rapid reinforcement of U.S. military capabilities. U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier from the local transfer to participating, a time gathered in the waters near the peninsula’s only Aegis destroyer will be up to seven. To this end, North Korea ordered its army to prepare to do battle.

However, the most likely to lead to the DPRK with the United States, Japan, Korea and direct military confrontation, which led to the biggest crisis in East Asia since the Korean War cease-fire situation, it is North Korea scheduled for early April the “satellite” or “missile” firing test.

back in early February this year, United States, Japan will be based on rumors of North Korean satellite surveillance will be “Taepodong 2″ long-range missile tests, a warning to North Korea. February 24, the DPRK announced that it will launch the “Galaxy 2″ carrier rocket to “light star 2″ into orbit in the amount of health communication. March 12 North Korea a formal notice of the International Maritime Organization, which will be held April 4 to 8 during the day to launch satellites, and to inform its rocket boosters may fall the sea.

but the United States, Japan, Korea and other countries of the North Korean launch of a satellite or long-range missile skeptical, and geographical position, whether North Korea fired a rocket or missile, are likely to violate the territory of neighboring countries, territorial waters and airspace, so the United States and Japan have announced they will conduct the event of interception destroy it. To this end, the U.S. military has carried out three times to intercept North Korean missile tests are successful.

even the Russian military also said that given North Korea may be after the rocket flight path over the near Russian territory, Russia will launch the missile warning and space surveillance systems.

3 9, the Korean People’s Army General Staff declared that any attempt to intercept North Korean ‘satellite’ move will be regarded as “a declaration of war,” North Korea will be “the most violent means” to retaliate. Back not only for the “relevant interception means”, but also for the United States, Japan, South Korea-related “positions”, meaning will the United States, Japan, Korea and mainland attack.

From this, in early April, the United States, North Korea and all Asian countries, will face the most severe since the Korean War cease-fire test.

back spot will pay a heavy price

North Korea launched a “satellite” or “missile” from a technical point of view, there is little difference between the two . The same remote delivery means in its load carrying position combat system, is the missile, into the satellite, the rocket. As the launch of different purposes, launch angle and launch the design orbit is different. Nothing more.

1998 年 8 月 North Korea conducted its first “satellite” (United States, Japan and other countries that it was a failure of the “Taepodong-1″ missile test) launch, the UFO over Japan into the Pacific Ocean crossing, the Japanese really shocked, scared endless.

because after the United States, Japan and North Korea refers to the dawn camel for a tough stance oath, any spot will pay back the heavy political price, it seems inevitable in a will contest. It now appears that future developments in accordance with its several possible consequences of such order, or call options.

first possibility is that North Korea suspend “satellite” launch. The reason is due to announce its own “technical reasons”, such as encountered in the process of preparing to launch a “technical problem” to be resolved, or the weather is not; also announced to be “friendly countries request” in order to avoid tensions, the suspension of emission pending the time; also announced that the Korean “military-first politics,” the power of deterrence, the United States, Japan, South Korea did not dare to further provocation, to suspend firing and so on. This option may be the best it can to defuse the crisis, avoid very serious consequences of a positive collision. However, since this is contrary to North Korea’s nuclear program as a whole, and political costs of large, so this option the least likely.

second possibility is that North Korea “satellite” launch failure, North Korea launched a few seconds after falling into the sea. This allows the United States, Japan, Korea long sigh, ie to eliminate the conflict did not play. For tensions in East Asia, this is undoubtedly a good outcome. But for North Korea, this is an unfortunate result, it will certainly provoke North Korea test-fired more times a great impulse.

third possibility is that North Korea “satellite” successfully launched into outer space, international law does not infringe the sovereignty of neighboring countries. This may be good news. Although this results in the long run will make North Korea abandon its nuclear program more difficult, sparking the United States, Japan, Korea and the dramatic escalation of armaments, the East Asian situation will remain tense, but at least to avoid the moment of collision the front to maintain a breeding ground the moment the situation. But given North Korea in August 1998 and July 2006, two launches were unsuccessful, so the likelihood is difficult to determine.

North Korea test-fired a fourth may be unsuccessful, off track, violating the sovereignty of Japan and other countries, or start from the launch, U.S. and Japan on the technical parameters determined from this one fired at the East long-range missiles. In this case, the United States, Japan faces an important choice. Intercept, shall also make large-scale military conflict with North Korea’s preparation; not block, the previous statement is a bluff is suspected, even if they refer the matter to the Security Council to impose further sanctions against North Korea and its national dignity, the government’s reputation is also will be seriously damaged. For North Korea, the United States and Japan for its missile interception, as they declared it as the United States, Japan, Korea warships, military bases, and even the local attack, but also a death in the face. When this happens, the situation in East Asian countries should have prepared a variety of drastic changes.

Obama set red

In fact, with the North Korean launch of the “satellite” caused by the crisis compared to the more worthy of careful consideration the DPRK and the U.S. in the event expressed in the policy orientation and motivation.

DPRK “satellite” (or “missile”) launch is expected in the matter.

what name, what time to test such missiles or rockets, from a technical point of view, this depends on two aspects. First, the DPRK’s missile or rocket development technology maturity; the second is the appropriate international environment, because ultimately this is not a trivial matter, fix will lead to serious consequences. Satellite was successfully launched in early February, after Iran, North Korea has been estimated there is not much of technical problems. Moreover, the addition of the hands of North Korea in 2009 diplomatic card. So, now is the best time to take action North Korea.

2006 年 North Korea’s nuclear test, the U.S. response is surprisingly “calm.” North Korea has been sparring on the Bush administration even more than in 1994, the Clinton administration on North Korea but also “friendly.” The year just because North Korea refused IAEA inspections and exit “Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty”, the Clinton administration tried to implement the Korean nuclear facilities, “surgical” attack.

many people on the fabric, the contrast between the government wondered grams. In fact, media has reported that South Korea and Japan, both in September 2002, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visit, or the June 2005 South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young to Pyongyang, North Korea had asked them to bring it to the United States. It was the Bush administration, North Korea to destroy its prestige Association of the United States constitutes a long-range missiles, to establish a strategic relationship with the DPRK, the DPRK nuclear weapons as a single-edged sword, it can be an option in the U.S. global strategy. Therefore, the Bush administration end of their term, although the mouth that the denuclearization of the Peninsula remain unchanged, but never to the physical demarcation of the North Korean nuclear issue and the time the red line.

However, long-range missile in North Korea ready to launch the rumors came after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on February 10, immediately announced that the U.S. will be blocked. February 24 North Korea announced its launch of a satellite is not a missile, the U.S. remains that, whether missile or “satellite” and once crossed the United States will destroy.

Obama administration moves against the DPRK’s response to this rapid and intense, as many countries by surprise. In fact, this fact is unmistakably the United States for North Korea “rocket” designated a “red line”, which its former approach quite different. Because the United States believes that North Korea has a range of 6,700 km “Taepodong 2″ missile has been co-wai to the United States, North Korea’s nuclear weapons by the single-edged sword into a double-edged sword, so the United States quit.

It can be seen, the recent emergence of the Korean Peninsula, turmoil and crisis of this series are derived from the North Korean nuclear issue, the State had the opportunity on this issue leads to the inevitable result of the policy doctrine. This is just the beginning. As long as the North Korean nuclear problem is not resolved, the Korean Peninsula and the East Asian turmoil and crisis will not subside, but will become more significant. (The author is Professor of International Strategic Studies, Central Party School)