Zhang Zhaozhong: 2020 China’s military power can only ranked fifth in the world (Figure)
Data Figure: China’s Second Artillery Corps, a new ballistic missile
Data Figure: China’s naval strategic nuclear submarines
data for: the East China Sea Fleet naval brigade landing ship together land and sea exercises on China Academy of Social Sciences
military forces in the world’s second report has caused uproar at home and abroad. If so, then 10 years later, in 2020 China surpassed the U.S. military is to become the world’s first?
CASS selected three assessed elements: military, personnel, equipment. The number of assessment methods look, regardless of quality. For example, in the assessment of the military, only to see substantial growth in military spending, not seen, except for old accounts, support personnel, engaged in training, equipment maintenance, construction, and the battlefield, the real development of equipment left over some money. In the staff’s assessment, in fact, the more the number of points should be reduced rather than points, because of personnel and equipment behind the note, the military needs to spend more. But also the calculation of military personnel’s knowledge structure, age structure, personal experience, combat experience, and so, obviously, all these aspects of the Chinese armed forces are not dominant. By the number of equipment is not to win. After World War II, U.S. Navy ships with 10,759, but now only 283, you can say the U.S. Navy’s military dropped it? Moreover, nuclear weapons are facing major cuts, tanks, aircraft, ships such as military combat platforms is no longer an important indicator to measure, on the contrary, C4ISR (command, control, communications, intelligence, computers, reconnaissance and surveillance), information warfare, precision strike weapons and combat platforms is the new concept of a modern military force to measure an important indicator of strength.
a weighted combination of the above factors, if carried out in 2020 about China’s military power the world rankings, I think will be ranked in China’s overall military power the United States, Russia, Britain, France, the top five. Segmentation point of view, the nuclear forces, missile delivery systems or both in the sub-missile head, China is not ranked in front of these four countries. The Second Artillery in C4ISR, information warfare, precision strike weapons and other elements of the new concept of warfare platform also came in fifth.
in the naval forces, due to the lack of tons more than the Chinese Navy’s surface combat ships, placing him ranked only eighth, behind the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, Italy, India and later. Chinese Navy submarine force as a small number of nuclear submarines should be ranked in the United States, Russia, Britain, France, the home fifth.
in the air force, due to the lack of Chinese Air Force supersonic cruise and stealth capabilities and high-performance four-generation fighter drones, only behind the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, India and later. This ranking, along with four generations of the United States outside of a large number of machines sold and the development of Russian-Indian Five machines and equipment, the Chinese air force military rank may also be extended later.
in the Army force, the lack of a large number of advanced helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, ranking after a substantial delay, behind the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, India, the home seventh.
present, the Chinese military is in transition from mechanization and semi-mechanization to the process, the information has just started. By 2020, China basically mechanized army. With the greater development of information technology, information technology aspects of the rankings in almost in seventh place.
In my opinion, if another 30 years, to 2049 when the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China’s military power is possible up to second place. ▲ (Zhang Zhaozhong National Defense University professor, Rear Admiral)
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