Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

1 25, Major General Peng Guangqian, a famous Chinese military critic in Xinhua,” Toward the world “speech on the seminar. Xinhua Li Shaofeng photo

2010 the International Year of the security situation has several basic trend will not change. First, the theme of the times of peace and development continue to deepen the trend will not change; two are interdependent and mutual friction while the development of increasingly interdependent the trend will not change; third group of the rise of emerging powers, to accelerate multi-polarization development trend will not change; Fourth, China’s comprehensive national strength and rising international influence, China’s national security environment relative improvement trend will not change.

course, there is constant change, constant in change. If in 2009 the security situation we face the keywords are “difficult”, then in 2010 the basic characteristics of the international security situation is “complicated.” This year the security situation in the diversity, variability, complexity and uncertainty of the more prominent. Talk focused on the following five questions.

One strategy, hard plate between the high-intensity combat will continue to be moderate, but between the great powers, groups of countries around the strategic interests of “soft contest” will be increasing. Big battle now unlikely, as the bloc during the Cold War that, the camp of the war, total war between major powers is unlikely to happen I’m afraid the situation to continue easing. But not without contradictions. Among the major powers, including traditional powers, superpowers and emerging powers, there are some groups of countries, such as the G20, G8, G77, ASEAN, the European Union which have been involved in international affairs, their mutual friction, especially in the strategic interests of the friction , including around strategic resources, strategy development, strategic initiative and other aspects of the competition is more intense than in the past.

Second international denuclearization will be this year’s International Forum on the hot topic, but nuclear power in national security in the difficult position of the pillars of substantial change. Obama last year in the “Prague Spring” that “global zero” concept, the United Nations held a summit on nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation. This year the topic will be further fermentation. This year, Obama also plans to invite heads of state in the world’s major global nuclear security summit held in Washington. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivered a speech two days ago in India claiming to nuclear disarmament talks with China, the same as the year of the US-Soviet negotiations. It seems the heat of the nuclear issue is on the rise.

but from the country’s actual performance in the coming years, nuclear power’s position in the role of national security will not be any substantive change, and even in some cases will be relatively increased. Conventional weapons in Russia and the United States difficult match, the strategic nuclear forces as a pillar of national security, will not easily loosen. The United States actually did not do really give up nuclear weapons, the destruction of nuclear arsenals, the necessary preparations. Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review should have been out last year, but the delay can not get out, some of the ideas Obama has been a strong traditional forces blocking. Russia’s special responsibility to carry out nuclear power, how to create a no-first use of nuclear weapons in international mechanisms, how to ensure the safety of nuclear disarmament and nuclear balance, how to give up the Cold War strategic thinking to establish a minimum of mutual trust, to nuclear disarmament to provide the necessary political basis for these is not an easy thing.

third is for non-state actors of terrorism, anti-drug, anti-piracy fight non-traditional security will remain an important part of the field. But this year there is a new case is different strategic game between sovereign states, especially in two areas, one is climate change, a game of financial security has become a non-traditional security of important new forms, not just anti-terrorism , anti-drug, anti-piracy, anti-extremist forces. Non-traditional security field more and more performance for the game between state actors. Just talked about the financial battle started around the financial sovereignty and security of the currency war, trade war so fierce. Climate change is growing and becoming more rolling.

climate change is no longer merely a question of climate itself, or a natural science problem, not a general social problem. Climate of political, ideological and more obvious. Western countries do everything possible to shirk responsibility for their own history, the climate issue on the set of carbon tariffs, technical barriers to building green, carbon war on developing countries, to suppress carbon emissions in developing countries the right to reasonable, erosion of the sovereignty of developing countries in climate This in essence is climate change as a tool to suppress, reduce, or even denied the right to survival and development in developing countries. This is not the general climate, but life and death battle. This non-traditional security field is an important content.

Fourth, the two Eurasian military alliance system will not change the basic framework, but in the new international situation, the United States will work for remodeling the old military alliance system and build a new partnership balance. US-Japan Security Treaty, Ye Hao, Ye Hao NATO, these two global strategic alliance in the United States are the two pillars of the system, it will not give up, the next step the United States will further strengthen the two pillars. But under the new pattern, within NATO Ye Hao, Ye Hao Japan, centrifugal tendency is increasingly evident, the United States to fight Iraq, France and Germany do not support the recent emphasis on Asia, Japan, requires an equal voice with the United States. On the other hand, in a series of major international and regional issues, the United States but also increasingly inseparable from the other powers of coordination and cooperation. In such circumstances, the U.S. had on the one hand seeking to improve the old alliance system, while seeking to establish with the other great powers to carry out the necessary coordination and cooperation as much as possible to maintain the strategic balance between the two.

Fifth China-US security relationship is an important part of global security issues. On the one hand, the United States in the global and regional security issues associated with the degree of China’s interests, as well as China’s increasing security needs. Left China really could not handle. China’s participation does not necessarily solve the problem, but if China does not participate, this matter is certainly harder. On the other hand, the United States to contain China’s efforts are also increasing. Into 2010, Obama on China’s “soft attack hard defense” and “clever warfare” has been no turning back. Clinton talked about the use of “smart power” revolt in China, challenging China’s sensitive nerves, is probably an important feature of this year’s US friction.

friction although this would not necessarily subvert the overall situation of Sino-US relations, but also increased the Sino-US relations does the trouble and uncertainty. Obama took office a year gradually revealed the true nature of the U.S. President, Barack Obama are returning to the virtual world of the real world Obama. Obama as U.S. president from the United States can not control the inherent values, not special interest groups from the United States dominated, and to consolidate leadership of the United States national strategic goals of domination. In the history of Sino-US relations, has always been a vicious circle, when the new U.S. president takes office, there will be “tension, friction, adaptation, mitigation,” the cycle.

first entered in 2010, sounded the alarm on China-US relations. Friction between China and the U.S., Obama and the Bush era is the age difference between Obama’s more of a smart power, multi-hand, the Chinese launched a soft attack. Concerning China’s core interests of China frequently to launch an attack on the issue.

at least six major challenges this year, or six time bomb:

first arms sales to Taiwan, the United States is certainly sell, and sell more and more. Arms sales to Taiwan is China’s interference in internal affairs, but also an attempt to further strengthen the U.S. anti-missile system in the Asia Pacific region. Why sell “Patriot III” mean? He just wanted to update the “Patriot II”, Asia-Pacific region to further enhance the level of anti-missile system;

Second Dalai Lama issue, he determined to see, but also to see high-profile, not sneaky.

Third, trade protectionism,

Fourth revaluation of the yuan,

Fifth Google. Google boss just made a blog, a spokesman for the U.S. government, the Speaker, Secretary of State, intensive battle, and now Obama has to speak up. In fact, Google has not yet formally proposed, and these bigwigs to contain himself, and indeed unusual. Why? Is to break through China’s political firewall. Just get in, tear hole on top of several million troops, several aircraft carrier battle groups. This is just the beginning, “the wind at the end of Lemna minor”, the greater the storm is yet to come.

six in-depth waters of the South China Sea and the military investigation launched in China’s soft belly land and sea strategic layout of one arc.

the South China Sea, not previously become the focus of its strategic focus, the focus is now gradually south China strategy. South China’s future development direction is an important strategic direction. Hub of China’s national defense strategy, China’s energy base in China’s choke in here. America is now fully engaged in the affairs of Southeast Asia, to return to Southeast Asia, he Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, through the Straits of Malacca to Yemen, the strategic layout of the arc, intentions? His defiance of United Nations Law of the Sea on the peaceful use of ocean spirit of the legislation, ignoring China’s protest, continued to the South China Sea military detection, China’s maritime rights and interests and national security interests compromised. In addition, the United States and clinical mid-term elections this year. U.S. mid-term elections, said China has always been to take things, will add new variables to the Sino-US relations. Therefore, China-US relations this year will be facing a very severe test.

view of this, our foreign policy should always adhere to the “stability of Europe and far, near, and various neighbors, based on the Asia-Pacific, the layout of the world.” In terms of political, military, economic, we are still a developing country still faces many difficulties and external constraints. The world has not yet been fully integrated land developed it? There are one hundred largest in the world per capita GDP of developed countries after it? Never eat just a few days fed, carried away. The basis of our foreign strategy is always those with common experiences, common interests, common beliefs of the majority of developing countries, those poor friends. Never for those fantasy things that non-cent deposit.