Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

Taiwan Air Force US-made AWACS equipment

text/”Outlook” Newsweek reporters Yuan Yuanshi and Xi Shengli Chen-chen

1 30, the U.S. Government’s Decision to sell to Taiwan, “Black Hawk” helicopter, “Patriot – 3 “anti-missile system,” Osprey “class minesweepers,” Harpoon “missiles, Multifunctional Information Distribution System and other weapons, the total value of nearly $ 6.4 billion.

then, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee and other departments have been protests and representations to the United States. In the announcement of the 17-hour period, China’s rapid announced four countermeasures.

This is Obama as U.S. president since the U.S. government first decided to arms sales to Taiwan. Affected by this interference, in 2009 just “pick up” Sino-US military exchanges will be seriously affected. And as a landmark, Obama came to power after the Sino-US relations will face severe challenges.

how to more effectively counter the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan? How to more accurately determine the two countries, the trend of the relationship between the two armies? “Outlook” Newsweek interview with National Defense and Military Academy Major General Zhu Chenghu Major General Luo Yuan, Ke Chunqiao colonel.

the United States was a small gain but lost cause and

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan has been affected and disturbed the healthy development of Sino-US relations is one important factor . Although the U.S. had in 1982, “August 17″ communique a commitment to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan until the end. But then it increased rather than decreased, many flagrant violation of the commitment. October 2008, the Bush administration announced $ 6.463 billion arms sales to Taiwan, leading to disruption of Sino-US military exchanges.

look overwhelmed by the list of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, “Patriot” anti-missile systems and other advanced weapons impressively. In the last year, U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to China to promote Sino-US relations to achieve a smooth transition, ushered in the context of a good start, why choose this time node United States brazenly provocative, trying to do?

Ke Chunqiao analysis, we should first see that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is an old problem, Obama chose this time are expected. The international financial crisis, the United States worried that China is selling U.S. Treasury bonds, strengthen cooperation with China. And into the fourth quarter of 2009, the U.S. economy to pick up sharply, then Barack Obama on January 27 in the first State of the Union speech that “does not accept the U.S. as the world’s second” and that shows its “muscle.”

“It is worth noting that the arms sales to Taiwan to demonstrate the new features.” Ke Chunqiao analysis, from a historical point of view, previous arms sales to Taiwan, China and the U.S. are two sides to try to avoid positive conflict, while Taiwan wants the United States dragged into the water. But this is different this time is to improve cross-strait relations in a stable phase, a good direction occurs when. This fully reflects the U.S. attitude on cross-strait relations in the hope that the arms sales to Taiwan, the United States in cross-strait relations reflected the influence of cross-strait relations in general do not want to better the overall trend being marginalized. This is a more profound note: the U.S. arms sales to China’s overall strategy has always been an important part. United States as a superpower, the rapid rise of China, a developing country has deep concerns with the awareness that the arms sales to Taiwan is a clear expression of this consciousness. In Taiwan, the U.S. global strategy, he also has an important position, anchored the United States intended to Taiwan to take more preventive measures to strengthen the East Asia to contain, to contain China’s development.

Second, the Obama administration took office, the Iranian nuclear issue, the DPRK nuclear issue, Afghanistan, terrorism, climate change, lack of effective progress on the U.S. domestic public opinion doubt the hardliners and the United States involved in these areas of poor performance of Sino-US interaction, soft policy toward China should be blamed. Thus, by the arms sales to Taiwan to express its tough stance.

third, can not ignore the U.S. domestic factors. At present, although the U.S. economy eased, but the jobless rate at 10%, which led directly to Obama’s support has fallen. Meanwhile, affected by the economic downturn, this involves the Raytheon Company, Lockheed Martin, its operating conditions are very bad, arms sales to some extent, ease the discontent within the United States military enterprises, and direct pull 8,000 U.S. jobs. This also shows that Obama followed the international issues of U.S. presidents in order to shift the way the internal crisis, reflected in the Sino-US relations, through arms sales to Taiwan and other issues show a tough stance to win the domestic military industrial enterprises, labor organizations support Therefore, Taiwan has become an important goal.

“choice at this time the United States arms sales to Taiwan, the timing of the cards and hand strength are computed.” Luo that from the time, said Obama’s visit to the United States to avoid the China, Copenhagen and other time of the node, choose now a relatively free time, to force them to avoid blame China; from the list of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, although the total amount of U.S. $ 6.4 billion the same, but the Taiwan Buy F-16 fighter jets and diesel-electric submarines are not included. This shows that U.S. actions are still modest, the Chinese are still reluctant to respond.

his analysis, the United States has always been the issue of arms sales to Taiwan to contain China’s rise as a pawn, no more than three of its intention: to arms sales to Taiwan to haunt China and interfere with China’s peaceful rise; take arms sales to Taiwan to make Chinese people’s money; take arms sales to Taiwan to provoke the Chinese fight Chinese, then the intention to renew China’s civil war. Although the United States to the cross-strait policy is not unification, no independence and no war, in fact, is not the core system is used to prevent arms sales to Taiwan strait peaceful development of cross-strait peaceful reunification.

However, in terms of economic accounts, or accounts to be considered from the political, Luo believe that the “U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is very small gain but loses the righteous cause.” United States should re-balance its strategic interests China and Taiwan to measure the weight of the pros and cons.

each other now the second largest U.S. trading partner, China is America’s third largest export market, the United States is China’s second largest export market. China-US bilateral trade volume in the past 30 years increased by 130 times, the bilateral trade volume in 2008 exceeded $ 300 billion. The U.S. direct investment in China has exceeded $ 859 billion in China in the United States also has a large number of bonds, the largest U.S. creditor. “In terms of market share, orders, or bond holdings of view, are far greater than the amount of arms sales to Taiwan, because China’s large arms sales and lost market share in many of such gains and losses, a look that is that” . More importantly, Obama took office, says that China-US relationship is the most important bilateral relationship. However, if angered arms sales to 1.3 billion Chinese people, Chinese people of the U.S. political trust will be greatly reduced. “So, the moral of the United States is far greater than losing the economic benefits, runs the risk, if the issues the wrath of the Taiwan issue to China, then the U.S. costs more than to get to.” Luo Yuan said.

Taiwan is also the wake-up call

arms sales to Taiwan as a buyer, Luo Yuan that Taiwan’s reaction is a happy one worry: The joy is that the United States agreed to The sale of arms, but also so to ease the previous “U.S. beef” incident tense at the same time, also please the island green camp; the worry is that cross-strait relations may cast a shadow.

Luo Yuan, told correspondents, U.S. arms sales to the consequences of events that has poisoned the atmosphere of gentle cross, destroyed the mutual trust, peaceful reunification of the two sides created a new obstacle.

analysis that Zhu said that in the United States arms sales to Taiwan in the list of “Patriot” missile defense system worthy of attention, because the “Patriot” missile defense system is the latest anti-missile system, its configuration with the new early warning radar to scan the whole 360-degree capability, as far as detection range of 400 kilometers. This makes it to guide other long-range precision-guided weapons attack capability. If the success of this sale, it means that Taiwan has a more advanced air defense weapons, it means that the U.S. defense system will be an early warning system before its pushed to Taiwan, and Taiwan became part of U.S. missile defense system. U.S. missile defense system early warning capability has been greatly enhanced, its first military deployment has been pushed to the southeast coast of China, this is a serious provocation to China’s core interests, may lead to cross-strait arms race.

said Luo Yuan, Taiwan spent $ 6.4 billion to buy is not really safe, but dangerous. Taiwan United States with its military pre-deployment push will force our military to take countermeasures. Taiwan to spend $ 6.4 billion, but in reality is wasting the money, for the United States to ease employment pressure, the Americans pay for. Taiwan to spend money to buy weapons that pulled the United States, looking to protect, is not the case. U.S. military commanders but by the sale of Taiwan as a pawn, placed cannon fodder position. Thus, Luo warned that Taiwan is spending $ 6.4 billion to buy a danger, should be early wake-up call.

“U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, but in reality is increasing the costs and the cost of cross-strait reunification.” That Zhu said, in fact, simple way to reunification of Taiwan authorities acknowledge the one China, “only a minimal effort If, instead of spending billions of dollars at every turn to buy arms. “

a strategic portfolio of violations to the United States,” liquidation “

for the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Foreign Affairs, Defence, the NPC, the CPPCC National Committee, Taiwan Affairs Office also issued a strong protest and other Department of Defense Office of Foreign Affairs summoned the leaders also ordered U.S. Embassy defense attache, described as an unprecedented high-profile.

In this regard, Luo believes that mutual respect for each other’s core interests and concerns, healthy and stable Sino-US relations is a prerequisite for development. “The Taiwan issue concerns China’s territorial sovereignty, security and other core interests, China can not have room for compromise.” In his view, the strong reaction from the Chinese side for four reasons:

long since our first concerning China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, social system, the three core interests and concerns of sustainable development inform the United States, transparent communication, but the U.S. has knowingly; the second is a series of 2009 China-US strategic dialogue, Obama intends to push forward bilateral ties back to the “global strategic partnership” direction, reiterated their commitment to building a positive, cooperative and comprehensive 21st century, Sino-US relations, but the U.S. did not honor their commitments, once again hurt the Chinese people’s feelings; three Sino-US diplomatic relations, Sino-US two three countries signed a “Joint Communique” and two “Joint Statement”, and the U.S. in 30 years, but again and again to challenge China’s bottom line; fourth last year, announced the implementation of the Bush era in U.S. sales Taiwan weapons program three days, five times China has expressed strong opposition, but the United States have turned a deaf ear bent. Therefore, the Chinese showed unprecedented intransigence.

“As China’s overall strength, the ability of China to safeguard national interests also increases.” Luo believes that the future for U.S. arms sales to China have taken the attitude, action will be more tough, “This is the inevitable rise in national power.”

“In the long run, China’s overall strategy of the United States changed to address the issue of arms sales to Taiwan will be a long process, our implementation of the counter measures also need to make long-term preparation, can not be other arms sales to Taiwan again, we counter once, but rather as counter-measures on a longer time period, to be taken into account. “that Zhu said.

“arms sales to Taiwan is a comprehensive measure, touching on the core interests of our country, so our counter-measures should not be limited to only military, but should be taken to solve the problem of a involving political, military, diplomatic, economic and other aspects of the strategic combination of boxing. “Luo recommendations.

he said, which requires a strategic dialogue with the United States, be liquidated. Because the “August 17″ Communique of the United States made a solemn commitment China, in particular, Article mentioned, does not seek a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, U.S. arms sales to the quality and quantity can not exceed the Sino-US diplomatic relations levels of previous years. The Sino-US relations a few years ago, the number of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan only from 200 million to 400 million U.S. dollars between, but also from the quality point of view, when U.S. sales of the missile just “Hawk” missile, and now not only on the number of increased rather than decreased, a number of advanced weapons is also impressively.

that Zhu think, first of all need to find the crux of the problem, clean up cross-strait issues involving unreasonable, unlawful legal provisions:

First, the United States’ Taiwan Relations Act ” . This is the United States for many years to blatantly interfere in China’s internal affairs, according to one of the China-US relations and the bane of cross-strait relations. In fact, the “Taiwan Relations Act” is a United States domestic law, attempts to modify or offset the United States domestic law with international treaties, the United States in the nature of Sino-US joint communiques in the legal obligations, this is a bad faith violation of international law behavior. “Taiwan Relations Act” can not go beyond the norms of international law, not replace, but not higher than the Sino-US joint communiques, not on par with the Sino-US joint communiques, par. “Taiwan Relations Act” is not only not be a one-sided deal with the United States and China concerning China’s sovereignty and internal affairs of valid documents, but can not be in the form of arms sales to interfere in China’s internal affairs, infringe the legal basis for China’s sovereignty.

Second, the Reagan administration in the United States signed the “August 17″ Communique on Taiwan before the “six commitments.” Namely: no timetable for reunification; in arms sales to Taiwan with the mainland before the consultation is not; improper cross-strait mediator; does not modify the “Taiwan Relations Act”; recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty; not force peace talks between Taiwan and the mainland. “In fact, this ‘six commitments’ both sides did not sign, and so was a piece of paper, and the” Taiwan Relations Act “, as itself illegitimate in itself unjustifiable gas is not strong, but always used as a human shield by the U.S. , was used as a tranquilizer in Taiwan. “Luo recommend this need be liquidated.

Third, clean up the U.S. Congress, “National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2000,” this restriction military exchanges in the field of 12 bill. “Can be the easier, the first to urgent, through strategic dialogue, China-related documents to the United States, laws and regulations listed in the list, one by one clean-up.” Zhu Chenghu that “the history of the formation of these barriers, the process still need to solve, but I hope the U.S. side to earnestly and properly care for China’s concerns and keep the development of military relations, bilateral relations between the promise. “

” The United States must honor the Chinese people’s commitment to it the word ‘gradually reduced, until eventually stop arms sales to Taiwan ‘commitment to responsible, to develop a road map, given a timetable to develop a quantitative standard. “Luo believes that in addition to urging the U.S. to perform,” August 17 “Communique of the commitments, measures to counter the United States should solve the problem:

from a radical perspective, the first is to strengthen our national defense capabilities. Especially in the case of cross-strait relations have eased, the United States once again violate my core strategic interests, but also to us a very good reason to strengthen national defense modernization, strengthening the development of weapons and equipment procurement. “We can learn from the U.S. defense budget in its 2010 report ‘additional war funding’ approach, clearly because of the threat across the Taiwan Strait, to increase military spending.” Luo suggestions, you can also draw on Russia’s response to the United States in 2007 in the Czech Republic, Poland missile defense systems approach, adjusting the deployment of our military strength. In the geopolitical, should also strengthen cooperation with our neighboring countries of Russia and other exchanges and cooperation, step up military exchanges. That Zhu added that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, on the southeast coast of China’s military facilities pose a new threat, which also forced to increase our investment in national defense had to adjust the deployment.

from the perspective of treating the symptoms, Luo suggested, one can eye for an eye person in his body, find the soft underbelly of the United States, to counter. Second, it could insinuations, to steal it. Now between China and the U.S. stakeholders, many interests in cross-penetration, you have me, I have you. Can be taken to sell as part of the United States Treasury bonds and other means of economic sanctions. Third, the sanctions involved in arms sales to Taiwan of U.S. military companies such as Raytheon, Lockheed – Martin Corporation. Fourth, the uncooperative attitude. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the two countries now is “solidarity,” the relationship. This is like two people in the boat, the United States upset the first step, we have disrupted the steps. “China wants to remind Americans can not ask the Chinese in many ways with the United States, on the other hand damage China’s core interests.”

“China’s comprehensive national strength and international status has this non-past ratio, our hands, there are many cards to play. “Ke Chunqiao that both the United States can be” soft anti-system “, can also be” hard to counter. ” Soft interrupt counter, including Sino-US military relations, to express protest against the government and the common folk; hard counter is in the United States has asked China to take appropriate measures in co-operation, and reserves the right to take further action. But he also warns that requires an objective understanding of the balance of power between China and the U.S., will the U.S. counter-measures on a long-term strategic consideration.

“especially in the military exchanges, with the development of China’s comprehensive national strength, the United States are very keen on Sino-US military exchanges, hoping to understand China’s military strength, to understand China’s strategic intentions, 2009 Obama’s visit to China military exchanges also pushing our side in the driving position, so in the current context, for my benefit to you military exchanges can be carried out; all against me, you can stop; beneficial to both disadvantages, and can be slow. “advocates a strategy game that Zhu’s attitude.

“The general principle is to be ‘reasonable, effective, and restrained’.” Luo said, “right”, we have occupied the moral high ground, the victim, is striking; “strong” is shot to be hard to hit the sore spot, let it know that damage China’s core interests, but also a price to pay; “with restraint” is to master the timing and intensity of punching, punching designed a portfolio of routine , measured draw the line properly.

Adds twists and turns in Sino-US relations

arms are bound to affect the military just to restore military exchanges. October 2009, the Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Xu visited the United States, the United States in October 2008 because the Bush administration announced arms sales to Taiwan were seriously disrupted by the Sino-US military relations have been restored. This year they have arranged a new series of exchange activities, including U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to visit China, PLA Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen exchange of visits between China and the U.S. warship visits, etc. . The approved arms sales to Taiwan will undoubtedly be expected to seriously affect the exchange activities.

from the Sino-US military relations perspective, that Zhu believes that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is a “dog in the manger” of. First is the destruction of the degree of mutual trust, will affect and hinder the communication between the two armed forces, affect the future of Sino-US cooperation in anti-terrorism, climate change and international and regional issues of cooperation. Meanwhile, China may delay the United States interested in cooperation, such as strategic nuclear exchange, and enhance military transparency.

that Zhu believes that as China’s development, the growing friction between China and the U.S., “This is not surprising, but also a manifestation of a mature relationship, not a bad thing.” But at the same time, he pointed out, need to see is that the Taiwan issue to China’s long-term strategic presence in the United States under the framework of the inevitable result, so the question of Taiwan to recognize the long-term and complex nature. In the long run, the U.S. global strategy does not change much. He summarized as follows: about relying on two (NATO US-Japan Security Treaty), based on the two continents (Asia and the Americas), control the seas and curb Russian, dominate the world.

“Sino-US relations are still stabilized, the elements of resistance will also increase, but will not split, will not lead to war.” It seems that Zhu, social ideological differences, cultural differences between East and West, the new rising powers will be subject to both large containment rules, and China in the development process need to expand the objective needs of their own interests, the U.S. government and military differences in attitude toward a number of factors led to the collision between China and the U.S. is inevitable .

“Sino-US relations is the world’s most important bilateral relations, Sino-US common interests far beyond the scope of bilateral relations, with a broader strategic and global significance.” Ke Chunqiao that particularly in the world not out of financial crisis, but also the face of climate change, food security, nuclear non-proliferation and other global problems, twists and turns in Sino-US relations is neither in line with U.S. interests, not in line with the trend of the times and the world security and prosperity.

in Luo, the current United States is facing “two three two” dilemma of a big financial crisis, two wars (Iraq, Afghanistan war), the two nuclear crises (the Iranian nuclear crisis, North Korea nuclear crisis). These are related to its core strategic interests, the United States needs in these areas to get China’s understanding and cooperation.

“cooperation benefits both, strife will harm both, the development of China-US relations, proceeding from the overall strategic situation.” United States to overcome the domestic uproar, abandon the Cold War mentality and responsibly fulfill its commitments as a number of the consensus of experts interviewed.