Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

10 10, in Zurich, Switzerland, French Foreign Minister Kouchner, Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy – Rey, Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbandian Jiang, Turkish Foreign Minister and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary 达乌特奥卢 (from left to right) signed by Armenia and Turkey with congratulations on the end of the long-term hostility between the two countries to normalize bilateral relations and agreements. Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers

the evening of 10 in Zurich, Switzerland signed an agreement both sides to end hostilities and achieve long-term normalization of bilateral relations.

before the signing of this agreement, the two countries have open borders.

soil, sub-centuries to lift the state of hostility is based on their realistic policy considerations, and reflects Russia, the United States in the South Caucasus, geopolitical game of compromise and contest.

Turkey won the domestic and foreign policy initiative

on Turkey, the depth of the second South Caucasus region to try to improve relations with Armenia, Turkey is seeking to dominance of the South Caucasus as a link.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Turkey wanted quick access to Central Asia and South Caucasus, but without success. Rolling in the previous years during the Karabakh war, the Turkish Armenian border several times to send troops to the pressure of their policies did not bring any desired results. Thus, in 1993, Turkey blocked the border with Armenia.

Turkey seeks to enter the second time the efforts of the South Caucasus, with its EU accession process are closely related.

Turkey has been hovering in the EU door for half a century. In addition to the surface of the ground, the EU made a series of Turkey in the soil appeared to be very demanding, such as Cyprus, ethnic conflict, recognition of the Ottoman Empire’s massacre of Armenians, as well as open borders with Armenia and so on.

before 2008, Turkey has not abandoned to improve relations with Asia, the three prerequisites that Armenia should abandon the requirements of the international recognition of the Holocaust, recognize Turkish borders, withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh region, with returned to the territory adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.

soil, sub-stance of setting up a prerequisite for bringing the two sides did not give any meaningful results until September 6, 2008 the “football diplomacy” before the formation of a breakthrough. At that time, the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan invited Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia to watch a football game. This “unusual behavior” after, there have been rumors that the two countries established diplomatic relations would soon sign the Protocol and open borders.

At the same time, Turkey’s foreign policy is also flexible and pliable achieved significant results, not only to freeze the “massacre” of the international recognition process and force the United States President Barack Obama on April 24 this year, the Armenian national mourning Day speech did not use “massacre” of the word. By convention, during the anniversary, U.S. President must communicate with the Armenian population, and the Ottoman Empire in the talks and the occurrence of this event. Senator Obama in office several times during the use of a “massacre” word, in its elected president, said during the campaign will not change this position. But this year is not the first time in his speech, Obama mentioned “massacre” is to convey a very subtle signal that the soil – improved relations between Asia close.

“Turkey has become a regional super-force”

In addition, Turkey’s active participation in regional energy projects and promote the “idea of ??the South Caucasus stability and cooperation,” the efforts also closer with Russia, the United States, Europe relations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the soil in July this year, said Foreign Minister 达乌特奥卢 talks, Turkey and Russia play in the South Caucasus region the most active role. U.S. responsible for the affairs of the South Caucasus Mei Xiu Bu Laizha former Assistant Secretary of State also believes that “Turkey has become a regional super power.”

But some analysts pointed out that from the perspective of the interests of the South Caucasus, Turkey will not open quickly to stop according to the U.S. version of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to resolve some of the practices. Medium and the negative image of its external political factors, such as some of the practices on the Kurdish issue, Turkey would like the process of long-term relationship between the sub-soil to maintain a standstill.

Armenia: political pragmatism break the economic blockade

in the April 23 statement after the announcement of three Swiss, Armenian or not to open borders around the country, and the establishment of diplomatic relations between land engaged in a fierce debate.

opposition accused the government of Armenia, said Asia, soil normalization of relations with Armenia in the Holocaust to give up on the requirements of international recognition and retreat on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh are directly related. In the United States, France and Lebanon’s Armenian population is too large to protest the signing of concession protocols. But the head of the Caucasus Media Institute, Islamic Canda good politicians that triggered the protest is still not enough to threaten Armenia’s domestic regime. According to the current political balance of power in Asia, Asian parliamentary ratification of the protocol is not difficult.

spite of domestic opposition and international groups of complaints and boycott, leaders of Armenia still intends to adopt a serious effort to achieve a positive result.

all members of the Armenian National Security Council unanimously approved Asia, soil to improve relations, mainly based on long-term blocked out of Armenia and the current status of the profound economic crisis of considerations.

located in Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran Quartet “siege”, there is no land borders with Russia, 2/3 of the trade to go through Georgia. After the war last August, Russia, the deterioration of relations between Armenia grid had a serious sense of crisis. Asia, the two leaders exchanged visits frequently grid, wishing the Russian – Armenian conflict grid adverse effects to a minimum.

At the same time, the global financial crisis, a sharp decline in the economy of Armenia, the first half of this year’s GDP growth rate fell by 18%. According to the World Bank’s Yerevan office of the Aristo Meinie 瓦鲁达吉斯 that open land – Asia Armenia border will have a positive impact on the economy, and is reflected in the trade. If open borders, the transport costs can be reduced by 10% to 20%, significantly improve Armenia’s exports to Turkey increased Armenian goods in the EU market advantage. EU-funded study showed that in the short term, Armenia’s exports will grow by 5% in the medium term export growth up 17.7%. Meanwhile, imports of the corresponding indicators were 4.75% and 13%.

to ease the domestic opposition, the Armenian Prime Minister 吉格兰萨尔 base phase in the acceptance of the opposition in Parliament stated that the Armenian either in law or in fact accept the existence of the border during the Soviet era Republic of Armenia Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic as the successor to inherit these boundaries. Today, out of political pragmatism, doubt the border with Turkey is unrealistic.

Although this debate will continue, but the authorities chose the de facto reality conditions. This is also the choice of Armenia and Turkey established diplomatic relations firm to promote the basis of the process.

Armenian Defense Minister Ao Kani Yang said at the meeting Department of Defense, Department of Defense will come in and take action for Asia – the process of normalization of relations between soil negative factors.

in the South Caucasus US-Russian compromise between the results

Russia, the United States is responsible for foreign policy leaders also attended the signing ceremony on the 10th, shows the decision South Caucasus, the political process between the two countries coordinate their positions. And Nagorno-Karabakh problem solving and soil, sub-open borders are closely related.

Some analysts pointed out, soil, sub-normalization and positive solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the U.S. President Barack Obama visited Moscow in July, Russia agreed with the results. Obama received a settle this issue of the “Russian plan”, that is, the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan around the five boroughs, Lachin region and the Kariba Bazar area of ??the return will be postponed to the moment to determine the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nesterenko that the soil – sub signing of the agreement, taken in the right direction is the “first step is a very important step”, “determines the sub-leading , soil on the road to full normalization of international relations, the parties act. ”

in the Russian view, the soil, sub-establishment of good neighborly relations, the objective will contribute to the South Caucasus region to ease tensions, strengthen regional peace and security. In fact, in Russia – frame the conflict, Russia’s urgent need for more peace in the region.

But some analysts said it was the Moscow succumbed to Washington’s program. In Russia under the guidance of the Madrid Conference in 2007 established the basic principles of mediation Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the context of the United States as the financial crisis, Russia’s global interests, the negotiation process started, the United States began trying to challenge Russia. The United States believes the South Caucasus region is the priority area of ??interest, especially in the grid – Russia conflict, the United States was not “frozen conflict” drag Georgia, a firm foothold in the South Caucasus. To further address the region’s oil and gas projects and energy corridor security issues, Washington needs to solve as fast as the South Caucasus conflicts. When he was Chairman of the Minsk Group of the United States, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Mei Xiu Bu Laizha that the chairman of the Minsk Group is a unified team, Russia can not be a problem to solve Nagorno-Karabakh. “Any President States alone can not complete this work. Azerbaijan – Armenia Relations (the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh) and the soil – Asian relationship is two different processes. The idea is the same time the U.S. started, but advancing at different speeds in a forward with the process faster, the speed will be reduced in another process. “” soil – Asia normalization of relations can be improved … … Nagorno-Karabakh process environment. ”

fact, both the United States proposed a parallel process, or Lavrov’s “Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the soil – is a parallel improvement of relations between sub-issue,” saying that exclude the great powers are reflected in settlement of regional conflicts the willingness. Therefore, we can say, soil, sub-out the first step in improving relations, both can be understood as Russia agreed with the U.S. program, but also the United States endorsed the Russian program.

newspaper in Baku on October 11 Xinhua