Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

trigger neighboring countries to strengthen China’s military suspicion. Chinese Army PLZ05-propelled 155 mm gun-howitzer fire

(Reporter Zhang Ran) Yesterday, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Asia Pacific Research Institute, Social Sciences Documentation Publishing House in Beijing, jointly organized the “2010″ Pacific Blue Book “published Asia-Pacific Conference and Workshop situation. ” Meetings around the security situation around China, the Asia-Pacific regional partnership development status and trends and other issues in the discussion, and officially released the “Asia Pacific Development Report (2010).”

Blue Book that the current security environment around China a series of risks both historical legacies, there are emerging issues; both from the surrounding non-recurring problems, there are intentional and for some countries . This makes China’s peripheral security environment is becoming increasingly complex. After analysis, there are three main sources of risk.

■ security environment

unbalanced state of mind of some big countries increased

risk 1

Blue Book notes that in 2009 China ranked the world’s largest exporter, GDP is approaching the size of the world’s second largest country. The face of the rise of China, some of the powers vested interests as the international order, imbalances aggravated state of mind, enhance awareness of China. This imbalance mentality, awareness through provoking ethnic sentiments, China’s objective to increase the security risk. In the Sino-Indian border dispute, the Sino-Japanese East China Sea demarcation disputes around the spy case of Rio Tinto in Australia and the dispute can be seen in such factors.

In addition, some major countries outside the region to intervene in China’s neighboring matters further aggravated an already existing perimeter security risk.

risk 2

suspicion and concern around the country

Blue Book that the international community for China speculation from the “China threat theory” to “China’s responsibility,” from “stakeholders” to a certain extent, G2 exacerbated by the surrounding state of China’s suspicions and concerns. In 2009 the international community a G2 hot speculation. This not only overestimate China’s influence on international affairs, but also misjudged China does not dominate the basic orientation of foreign policy. More importantly, this led to some neighboring countries trying to promote the introduction of regional powers and regional powers to balance the external force or against the Chinese. The end of 2009, former Prime Minister of Singapore called on the U.S. to balance China in Asia’s remarks reflected this attitude. In the South China Sea dispute, the countries can be seen in a similar attempt.

manipulated occasional external shocks

increasing globalization in the context of highlighting the impact of non-traditional security, certain countries and regions contingencies are likely to become the focus of global attention. China’s neighboring countries in the region’s political systems, ethnic composition, significant differences in levels of economic development, non-traditional security fields of many sources of risk. In the past year, people witnessed the North Korean nuclear issue mutations, Rio Tinto espionage storm, Myanmar government and the ethnic conflicts in the northern region caused by a bold cross-border refugees, and Xinjiang separatists and terrorist forces abroad collusion led to the “Plan Incident”. In these seemingly accidental external shocks behind, we can often see on the hostile forces in China and manipulation.

security risks of these complex security environment surrounding our country’s increasing complexity, but also determined that we can not take a single response to resolve different types of security risks. Blue pointed out that China’s peripheral security environment, should take measures to deal with the development of its own strength; stable Sino-US relations; develop good-neighborly diplomacy, expand China’s influence in neighboring countries; strengthen the soft power building, improve China’s international at the periphery image.

risk 3

■ Asian

the stimulus out of time into the greatest risk

Blue Book noted that the international financial crisis has spent the worst period, but the prospects for global economic recovery, there are still many uncertainties. So far, the Asian economy is the global leader in the process of economic recovery, at least the next year (2010) Asia’s economies will not change this status, the Asian economy is expected to remain the fastest growing part. Face of the Asian economic optimism, we must pay attention to potential future risks.

the short term, the Asian economy is facing the biggest risk is the timing of exit policies. Asia’s economic recovery mainly due to the government’s economic stimulus policy, once the economic stimulus withdrawal, the sustainability of the recovery process is still unknown. Exactly when to pull out of economic stimulus depends not only on the prospects for economic recovery, the judge, also depends on the sustainability of the policy itself to determine. Only from the inflation level, the 2010 Asian economic risk is not significant. The problem is that the continued implementation of large-scale economic stimulus policies might exacerbate people’s inflation expectations, the rate of increase in CPI is not the case lead to asset prices. In fact, the region from early 2009 the rate of increase in asset prices are generally higher than elsewhere in the world, such as stock prices, real estate prices, and even the rapid rise in world gold prices are and hedging behavior of investors in Asia were closely related. How to proceed with the loose monetary policy to curb the risk of asset bubbles is Asian monetary authorities face a difficult problem.