Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

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Spain “Eurasian Review” Network May 21 article, the original question: Russia’s military strategy in the Chinese character

China continues to rise. To this end, the Russian army is necessary to take precautions in response to Beijing’s hegemonic potential plan. But military alone is not enough preparation. Russia need to reverse the Far East and Siberia adverse social – economic and demographic trends, to avoid these factors cause armed conflict.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry recently announced the news in June 2010 the Russian armed forces will be code-named “East 2010″ campaign strategy exercises. The exercise will be the Russian military in 2010, “the highlight of combat training.” Russia’s top commander has not publicly talked about the exercise of an imaginary enemy. But it goes without saying that exercise is a potential enemy, Japan, Russia and Japan because of territorial disputes. In addition, the Russian leadership is also concerned that North Korea has nuclear weapons.

However, the Far East there is another potential enemy, its growing military might make Russia must act through the “East 2010″ to prepare the exercise of such scale counter-strategy. The enemy is China.

Until recently, the Russian political leadership has been careful to avoid that China as a potential enemy, and strong emphasis on improved relations with its powerful neighbor, the large East. However, China has challenges to the dominance of Russia in Central Asia. In the future, the rapid growth of China may be Russia Siberia and the Far East pose a security threat, especially considering the population density between the two countries, the economic output gap is widening, there are endless influx of Chinese laborers.

Russian officials said that China as a potential enemy to avoid, and perhaps do not want to anger the eastern neighbor, to gain time to prepare to deal with China on the rise. But Russian experts pointed out that China’s potential threat to military advantage. The drafters of the new National Security Strategy of Uncle Alec Xie ? Rostov early 2004, said: “After the Cold War … … Moscow lost its NATO and China’s conventional military advantage.” Now, Russia will it non-strategic nuclear weapons as “nuclear equalizer” to compensate for this the face of Western and Chinese weakness.

scholars believe that if the conflict in Russia, Russia should not expect regular army can withstand its million of the 2.8 million People’s Liberation Army troops. Moreover, although nuclear weapons can play a powerful deterrent, but can not be regarded as a panacea. The most important thing is that even limited use of nuclear weapons, nuclear retaliation will be used to increase the risk of the opponent.

Moreover, whether nuclear or conventional weapons, Russia can not effectively reduce the increased risk of conflict of factors, including population and economic development between the growing imbalance. Since the size of the Chinese economy since the late 1970s has increased 3-fold in the next 10 years could double again.

but given the current pace of development, even if a serious conflict between China and Russia, that is a few years later. As Singapore’s first prime minister Lee Kuan Yew said that China needs time to grow. If the conflict is destined to happen, they will postpone it for 50 years. In considering the conflict with Russia first, of course China would like to regain Taiwan and established a dominant position in Southeast Asia.

Russia should use the next few decades the implementation of military reform, until the cause to fight and deter military threats around parity with the Chinese military’s conventional forces. Russian authorities should also reverse the Far East and Siberia shrinking population trend, and promote regional economic growth, to prevent Russia and non-military gap is widening, thus reducing the crisis in relations with China may eventually escalated into armed conflict. (Author Simon ? Salacien, Wang analyze translation)

(“Global Times” May 24, 2010 No. 06 version)

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