Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

8 10, United States, “McCain number” destroyer arrived in Da Nang in Vietnam. Vietnam up posters and flags of both countries, welcomed the “McCain’s name,” visit.
8 12, South Korea, North Korea’s special forces near the “Northern Limit Line” was held near the landing exercise.

8 10 May, the United States, “McCain number” destroyer arrived in Da Nang in Vietnam. Vietnam up posters and flags of both countries, welcomed the “McCain number” visit.

8 12, South Korea, North Korea’s special forces near the “Northern Limit Line” was held near the landing exercise.

South Korea, the US-Vietnam military exercises with China to form a “north-south pincer attack”

core Tips

in the Obama administration’s view, the Asia-Pacific forces are unbalanced, highlighting China’s growing influence, the United States will be “marginalized.” So the U.S. hopes to restart “balance in East Asia”, with a view to the growing importance of East Asia to play a greater influence.

– Tao Zhao (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher USA)

around the United States to China to build “C-shaped ring of encirclement” is not sensational, the media have said the image of the “Asian version NATO “is taking shape.

some people have expected China-US relations, “mature”, but which contains a potential military crisis.

– Ni Lexiong (Shanghai University of Politics Department of Political Science Professor)

news from beginning

recent years, Sino-US relations spin “talk of the town.” With the “security” incident, US-Vietnam diplomatic ties 15 years since the U.S. military exercise in China is indeed the surrounding area can be described as a continuous “two-move more”: strengthening the ROK-US alliance with the ROK-US speech; inhibit relocation of U.S. bases in Japan; with U.S. newspaper play “spoiler” South China Sea issue, and thus form a “North and South contain” China’s situation.

At the same time, U.S. public opinion seems increasingly to China voices strong. For example, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN John Bolton recently in “The Wall Street Journal” published on the wording of a very hard “against China’s roar,” the article.

this point, the Sino-US relations is considered a sign of growing into the fight. Whether the United States to adjust its China policy? China and the U.S. recently, “rattling” in the end from what? What is the purpose behind the US-Vietnam military exercise? Roundtable this week, we invited two U.S. studies expert, explore this topic from different angles.

the reporter Mao Yu-West

exercise goal

C-shaped surrounded by the U.S. China

“Asian version of NATO” is to form

from the Yellow Sea, to the South China Sea, the U.S. aircraft carrier is triumphantly around the various high-profile military exercises in China .

Ni Lexiong interview with this reporter said, looking from the current situation, the United States and Vietnam lightning together, and have verified the United States in China to build around the “C-shaped encirclement” is real, rather than sensational, with This image of the media called the “Asian version of NATO” is taking shape.

he said with concern in some China-US relations, “maturing” of expectations, in fact, contains a potential military crisis.

Ni Yue-hung said: “Despite the recent large-scale Sino-US conflict will not arise, but entered the war in any conflict before, there will be a clear adversary. I still insist that China needs a strong navy in the South China Sea to maintain deterrence, in order to change the military imbalance in Sino-US strategic posture, the consolidation of China territorial waters. “

for the United States frequently,” Sword, “the purpose of Ni Lexiong image that the Chinese martial arts used a similar scene: a formal duel ago , the parties will not touch ground to a few appearances, put a few Pose. United States is still in the stage put Pose.

he explained, was inhibited in the Sino-US military conflict in the context of pragmatism from the perspective of the Obama administration, exercise has become a profit-making tools – such as seeking influence in Asia, the United States economic interests and to gain a bargaining chip to seek compromise with China and so on.

decryption behind the scenes

China touched American nerves

dissatisfied with the pattern of change in the Asia-Pacific

in Tao Zhao, only a “day” events such as the direct cause, the trend of Sino-US relations strained, fully embodies the United States trying to change the East Asian “power imbalance” in demand.

Tao Zhao said that in the Obama administration, the current imbalance of power in East Asia, the United States want to restart the “balance in East Asia”, with a view to the growing importance of East Asia to play a greater influence.

from Northeast Asia, the rapid development of China-ROK trade, China has become South Korea’s largest trading partner; Japan had proposed the “East Asian Community” does not even start including the United States, which are the United States uneasy. American academics in recent years are to the “re-enter the Chinese sphere of influence of the Korean Peninsula,” the view, no doubt also contributed to the United States in East Asia seriously.

from Southeast Asia, Vietnam in 1973 after a long period of time, the U.S. lost interest in Southeast Asia, long-neglected Southeast Asia. In contrast, economic integration and cooperation between China and ASEAN has made substantial breakthroughs. In the U.S. view, China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia underscores the United States is increasingly being “marginalized.”

Tao Zhao pointed out that Obama took office, America’s “strategic balance” has been tilted to the East, Obama even called himself “Pacific president.” Today, the United States, Japan alliance to consolidate, the US-Vietnam military cooperation, the United States to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN and other acts, all that the United States is promoting the “back East” strategy. Thus, the United States to return to action in East Asia, with China’s interests will inevitably occur “collision”, and thus achieve the United States to China, “prevent, contain, balance,” the strategic objectives.

future trends

or will “compromise”

no need to overly pessimistic

hardened for U.S. policy toward China, trying to change China policy statement, Tao Zhao pointed out that the Obama foreign policy team currently no personnel changes, U.S. policy toward China did not appear change.

In addition, Tao Wenzhao that the U.S. media’s voice has always been “multiple”, not because of the strength of a period of media voices to determine whether or not government policy, unless the sound is from the official.

high-level visits to resolve their differences

Tao Zhao said: “Many people prefer to use the ‘contain’ China policy description, in fact, it has a strong color of the Cold War, I personally think the U.S. policy toward China with the ‘prevention, check and balance’ a more appropriate description. “

in his view, on the one hand, we must recognize the complexity of bilateral relations, but must also see that the Sino-US interdependence and mutual need, mutual restraint fact.

for the current Sino-US tensions, Tao Wenzhao, research fellow, after a series of struggles, the United States eventually will “compromise” through the mechanisms of dialogue platforms (such as high-level visits, military exchange strategic and economic dialogue, etc.) to resolve or dilute the differences.

against the status quo does not meet the real

Tao Zhao pointed out that the “compromise” U.S. diplomacy itself is an art, to those who believe that Sino-US confrontation, or to the “proxy war” view is too pessimistic, do not meet the real situation of China-US relations.

On the future development of Sino-US relations, Professor Ni Lexiong, U.S. policy toward China hands “of containment and engagement” is not a fundamental change, but the use of means to a “step change” ( such as the recent U.S. military frequently show), this change is intended to achieve the higher interests of the United States more or pave the way for cooperation.

the lessons of history

power should be really responsible

stop the allies to act rashly

for the present “North-South attack” situation, Ni Lexiong that the source of a series of events, dates back to the North and South Korea sudden “security” incident.

“security” after the incident, although in the end who led the South Korean frigate sank still controversial, but South Korea has found that the “culprit” in order to highlight the prestige to draw the United States to join a high-profile military exercises.

Historically, before the outbreak of World War I, Austrian Crown Prince Ferdinand June 28, 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, and the event eventually evolved into a war out of control.

Although the situation is unlikely to lead to war, can not be completely analog, but there are a small country alliance between frequent accident out of control, from the interactive nature of the hostile relationship between the structure view, and “Ferdinand events “similar.

From a historical perspective, a big country really wants to take responsibility for peace, should be wary of similar “security” out of control events occur, we must try to stop an alliance of small countries “to act rashly.”

National Defense University professor said the U.S. Navy in Vietnam speech was intended to deter China

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original address: http://gzdaily.dayoo.com/html/2010-08/14/content_1065224.htm