Experts say the rise of China or the East Asian re-division of spheres of influence in the sea
Data Figure: North Sea Fleet, the formation of new warships enter service soon began combat exercise.
this year, the security situation in East Asia, a series of new situations and new characteristics. Regional security in the pattern from the mid-1990s has been unprecedented “major adjustment”, the transformation of East Asian regional security structure into the accelerated phase.
post-Cold War era, East Asian security architecture is an enhanced dominance of the United States, compatible with China’s peaceful rise and the maintenance of regional hot issues and status of development. However, nearly 10 years in East Asia as the global changes in political and economic situation has undergone major changes. Korea and India and other countries continued economic rise, the focus of global economic power is transferred to the East. Regional security as the trend of structural adjustment, this adjustment at the heart of the global economy in East Asia is increasingly becoming the “power games”, the major powers on how to re-planning strategic interests in East Asia.
China’s rise brought about by the “power change” is not primarily on changes in policy and strategy, but the subtle complexity of mind, perception and cognitive changes. Most of China’s neighboring small countries such as Japan, Korea and some ASEAN countries fear China’s rise will be implemented after the expansionary policy, began to turn with the United States by strengthening the military and defense cooperation and to increase their military and defense spending, to contain and prevent China. In this context, the “U.S. factor” but the concept in psychology and is easier to accept the “China factor” is often a lack of “closeness” and “uncertainty”, and in the post-Cold War rise to the most important regional security against objects.
Second, China and the major powers began a significant expansion of strategic competition to the naval forces, maritime and marine influence sphere of influence and a series of new problems. Whether it is the South China Sea, Multimodal speech controversy or conflict in the East China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands, the real story behind controversial marine issues concern not only territory, competition for resources, but also to the future strength of the sea, maritime claims, as the representative building of the Navy long-range power projection capability concerns. China’s naval forces to become a big building and strategic competitiveness of the country is one important factor. Some people even alarmist to believe that East Asia has entered a new maritime geo-strategic sphere of influence into the era of competition.
Third, Obama “return to Asia strategy,” declared a high-profile U.S. military superiority and the primacy of the military alliance, in order to “suppress” the areas in China and ensure U.S. leadership, too much the use of joint military exercises, military deployment and expansion to enhance defense cooperation and other strategic military and a strong practice. This not only increased the tension in the region, but also the East Asian security environment factors in the fight against uplift.
fourth, around the “days of the ship incident” and Yin Ping Island shelling occurred in inter-Korean confrontation has led to a sharp deterioration in the situation in the peninsula, the delay can not be resolved on the Korean nuclear crisis erupted again, to resolve the North Korean nuclear a multilateral diplomatic process unprecedented downturn. If the situation on the peninsula can not be effectively controlled not only the outbreak of the Korean war, the geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia and even around the Peninsula, the problem may be the emergence of new divisions. Once the re-emergence of the Korean Peninsula local military friction, if not full-scale war, Japan is likely to take the opportunity to revive large-scale arms, US-South Korea military alliance and even the rapid emergence of “multilateral” trends.
East Asian security situation in the strategic, even historic change for many reasons. From the objective reasons for the rise of China’s regional power and brought about changes in the structure of wealth, that “power change” is the main reason. Regional trends in small countries of the China policy of prevention and vigilance improved significantly, not only for the United States’ return to Asia Strategy “to provide diplomatic and strategic space, but also for some countries within the region against China’s security policy adjustments the demand.
from a subjective point of view, our own lack of objective, clear and coherent diplomatic strategy, is currently leading the regional security landscape in China face the root cause of the passive situation. We are changing the relationship between China and the world reserves of intelligence, mentality, lack of preparation and policy updates. Second, China’s strength and international influence increased in the academic and policy circles contributed to blind optimism. Many people simply believe that China’s GDP and secondly, the power structure in the world, China’s position, “second”, the influence of the second great power status and the second, this understanding is not only misleading the public opinion, even more misguided policy debate. Third, China’s peripheral security situation for the subtle changes and dynamic development, lack of timely and sensitive tracking and response.
my opinion, a good grasp of the situation in East Asian security strategy of future trends, to resolve the wave pattern of the East Asian regional security restructuring process in the passive situation, after all, is to continue to focus, stability, and promote the Sino-US relations development. Obama’s “return to Asia” strategy of the basic shape, its core is the use of regional politics for many of the “China factor”, the consolidation of the U.S. political and economic order in Asia’s dominant position, is “to explore” effective new ways to deal with the expansion of China’s economic influence, to avoid China’s “crowd out” the United States. Currently the United States’ return to the East Asian strategy “with the countries in the region for defense and foreign policy change,” a high degree of resonance. ” 2010 China-US tensions with the U.S. diplomacy in East Asia ‘focus area “rather than” focusing on China “attitude adjustment has important links. This result is also bound to the Sino-US relations has brought new challenges. ▲ (The writer is professor of Peking University Institute of International Relations.)
(“Global Times” December 24, 2010 14th Edition)
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