U.S. think tank analysis of the Libyan war: The real battle is still on the ground
Libya’s Gaddafi armed opposition and the army was in full swing.
According to U.S. security and intelligence think tank “strategic projections” (stratfor) reported that Libya has started the war, United European countries, and a few anti-government forces and Libyan Arab countries to participate in the military action. Long-term goal of war is self-evident – to overthrow Gaddafi dictatorship rule, establish a new regime.
combat missions against Libya clearer than the battle plans are preliminary action can not be seen only from the operational plan. As the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 explicitly demanded that military action does not include ground troops, combat plans may implement “no-fly zone” resolution service, attacked Libya, Gaddafi command and control center or military forces to the ground attack; also can be combined with all the war plan, the invasion and occupation of Libya.
The real problem is not Da Buda Libya Moreover, has been playing, but how to play. To overthrow the Libyan regime of multinational coalition or several of them in the end how far? How to create a new regime after the aftermath? How much to do to prepare? Ready for battle long? These are still unknown. Do not forget, the occupation of Iraq and eventually became the core of the war in Afghanistan, and overthrowing the regime is just “the opening show.” Perhaps, then multi-national coalition operations plan has not been finalized, perhaps not yet reached a consensus, so if we do not consider how far they are ready to go.
like nearly 20 years as the outbreak of war, this war is based on multi-country negotiations over the basic framework, to seek international support and international organizations authorized to mobilize the military after it broke out in broad daylight. War is so blatant lies, secret attack price to pay (time and expected operational losses) is much smaller than the benefits of raid. Can raid enemy by surprise, too late tissue resistance. This Gaddafi like “hedge the fight” and its military capacity will be limited, so stealth is not necessary.
special forces have been charged with two missions to Libya. First, get in touch with the rebels, to prepare for the follow-up to establish channels of communication and logistics, and reconstruction of postwar political framework; Second, further investigation to determine the targets and targets, to provide the latest information; special forces and air together with the Air Force investigation to lay his head to the war front. Royal British Special Air Service team has reached Libya, estimated the special forces of other countries and intelligence personnel have arrived in Libya.
multinational coalition forces have launched several rounds of the Libyan air strikes. First attack as a “decapitation operations”, the purpose is to destroy or isolate the Libyan military command building; may also launch was intended to get rid of Gaddafi son or other senior government officials, attacks. Launch these attacks rely on intelligence facilities, including communications, planning and local leadership informants provided detailed information. Fighter air strikes on buildings, but did not specifically use cruise missiles, because the buildings do not move, so the air will be very accurate. Meanwhile, air combat aircraft are flying around the waiting area outside the range of operational information; Once the target mobile operations information, they will enter the target range and opened fire. Air defense strength, attack and combat reaction time before the necessary ammunition determines the type of combat aircraft. From conventional to stealth fighter aircraft such as the U.S. B-2 bombers, they can come in handy. Ground special forces might use laser-guided munitions, high accuracy but requires lighting.
for more attacks at the same time, multinational forces are also on the airport, fuel depots and the like places attacked, by the Libyan Air Force, “unable to move.” Air and cruise missiles in large-scale fixed surface to air missile (SAM)-based radar help of attacks. Meanwhile, the “Wild Weasel” fighter (Wild Weasel) will search for the Libyan air missile system deployment; and this is the key to this war. Communication systems in Libya and the dual monitor portable air defense missiles, the multi-national joint combat aircraft able to withstand some time, even if Gaddafi’s troops do not shoot anything down.
these are the “old America” ??and the West is extremely good at combat tactics, but the war has only just begun; Qaddafi is the main military special forces and armored artillery. Simply destroy their air force and the isolation of its military forces can not win the war itself, the real battle is still on the ground. The problem now is that the motive force Gaddafi: If they do not accept the surrender or fight to the death, that they may go on fighting. By that time, coalition forces destroyed the Air Force will decide whether to use ground forces Gaddafi. This is of course possible, but there is no guarantee foolproof. Furthermore, this will increase the number of civilian casualties. War is contradictory, in the end it is to save suffering people, or make it more painful to bear; This is not just a theoretical problem, but the harsh reality of real-staged. Supporters of the war at this time Libya can convince the leaders of other countries, excluding the cost of the end of the Libyan people’s suffering. But we should remember that Saddam – Hussein accused despite being the world sense of shame, but those who hate him or do not want to bear the cost of his overthrow; Europeans are extremely sensitive to this point as well.
next question is, as the Kosovo war, the war is only to maintain the same phase of military operations in the air, or will it continue to develop for ground military operations. Kosovo outcome still far from satisfactory, but not Gaddafi Milosevic. For Gaddafi, the war is related to life and death, Milosevic is not the case; Gaddafi, once surrendered, will surely desperate. Therefore, Gaddafi and his followers will fight to the death to resist, this is the greatest suspense. Now coalition choice is: either continue to carry out air strikes or invasion.
It also will bring a question: Which country’s troops will take the lead in advancing Libya. Egypt seems to have been ready, but Egypt and Libya, long-standing grudges. Therefore, if the Egyptian “lobby” may not be regarded as “the liberation of Libya.” Of course, the United States and Europe can also stir up the beam. But for the United States, it is difficult to imagine Obama in the Muslim world to launch the third war. The two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has made the United States suffered a “taste of leadership”, which is the test of the joint belligerent. If the coalition forces’ landing, “Libya, the war may last a long time, the question will become whether Qaddafi’s armed forces mutiny; this again by the” military card “morale and behavior of the decision. US-Iraq war, those who survived the U.S. invasion of Syrian Socialist Party to surrender or face the choice of alliance with the base, so they had to choose the latter; the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban have not completely defeat the organization in abandoned before a formal power, but later the Taliban and restructuring, reform and come back. We do not know what Gaddafi, can not do; Obviously, this is the biggest question.
Iraq war issue is not special forces; not the “beheading” or against the Iraqi air force; not that defeat the Iraqi ground forces; the problem lies in “the U.S. military occupation of Iraq.” As the saying goes, hard siege defenders easily, after the U.S. occupation of Iraq, it is difficult to cope with rebel attacks. Therefore, the case for war in the future, we know nothing about. Even if Gaddafi to surrender or be killed, even if does not need to invade Libya; it is undeniable that the likelihood of rebellion still exists, if you do not happen, we will never know that rebellion will occur. Therefore, the only people surprised about this military action can only be its failure.
multinational task of launching a war against Libya is to change its regime, or 20 years to go to war the old routine; but, this time for a taste of European countries’ leadership taste. ” However, the decision to start playing no matter how well can not win this war. We should think about what is the nature of war – in the end is the benefit of mankind? Or harm creatures? After answering that question, what we look at war plans, tasks, and whether political intent with the perfect time. (Sri Lanka years)