Israel or separate attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in October most likely
in recent days, Israeli media frequently news release, said the Israeli government – to be exact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his the core security cabinet has determined to launch late this year or early next year at the latest on military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. On current information, the Israeli government has been psychologically prepared to go it alone. If you bomb Iran can become a prelude to the United States to wipe out Iran’s, would be best. But even if they do not drag on the United States, Israel is more and more inclined to attack alone.
Although the Middle East is a worldwide war rumors most Israeli attack on Iran rumors more than even the professional intelligence people to memorize. But the recent wave of news or unusual, the national military agreed that by no means groundless. Israel tried to strengthen the anti-missile system and the Air Force long-range strike capability, issuing gas masks to all citizens, and to hold a national air defense combat exercises, reinforced bomb shelter in big cities, Israel’s preparations for war are no longer low-key. Based on the historical experience of Israel in the past, such a state of tension often a regional war or high-intensity local conflicts as pressure outlet vent.
course before Israel has repeatedly threatened to act alone after the deadline, but the deadline is always a variety of technical reasons, constantly postponed. So optimistic about Israel or that this is still a bluff to force your opponent to the brink of war strategy concessions. Iran facing economic pressure has suddenly increased, especially in Europe and the United States finally comprehensive blockade of sanctions against Iran export oil. This is a large degree has reached Israel has been strongly lobbying target. So we have every reason to believe that Israel will sit down and wait for the effect of sanctions play.
only Israel really cares about Israel
but this optimism peace estimates significantly underestimate Israel’s unique strategic principles, as well as the current international environment.
in Israel today, all major political parties of Iran possessing nuclear forces take 0 tolerance attitude. Meilei Si Group Rabin era quite force this peace camp has been completely marginalized. Israeli political circles for the differences is not the difference between military force and diplomacy of the strategic means, but hardliners internal differences between the hawk “and” dove “. The latter against Israel alone attack on Iran, but the main concerns, not the war itself, but fear that Israel is forced to launch unilateral strikes not only fundamentally eradicate Iran’s nuclear capability, it will seriously damage a close ally of the relationship with the United States, Israeli in a very isolated position. Iran would be able to get international sympathy and open development of nuclear-armed grounds.
these reasons justified, so, despite Netanyahu Prime Minister’s favorite punching bag has been high-profile, public threats against Iran to take a “surgical” senior frequently draw “red lines” and deadlines, but every crisis can always be resolved that it was ironic, Israeli threats are now only valuable oil futures speculators.
but must be seen, in the case of the same basic strategy, the increasing lack of room for concessions to Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue. In its view, not only the international community to curb Iran’s nuclear program to implement half-hearted, even after the setback in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, has become over-cautious. From Israel’s point of view, in recent years, Israel has been given sufficient time for the international community to use diplomatic and economic means to resolve the Iranian issue, but time Iran’s successful strategy of delaying wasted. Ultimately, truly a nuclear-armed Iran would be a deadly threat only Israel, on the contrary, even the United States are not countries with a limited firepower nuclear Iran co-exist in the Middle East. Therefore,
Israel for their own survival, it is necessary to take military action in the case under enormous diplomatic pressure alone. Israeli style of major security issues since the nation is extremely tough, not to mention the fact that Israel’s ruling Netanyahu and his main ally, is 73 years after the war in the Middle East, the toughest group of Israeli politicians. Few
since last year, a major breakthrough in Iran in nuclear technology signs or evidence of more and more obvious, in particular the IAEA proved Iran, it has been able to self-production of enriched uranium of 20 percent purity and the ability to further improve the production of weapons-grade enriched uranium in Iran technically has no unbreakable barriers, in fact, Iran has announced deep concentrated production purity of 80% uranium from weapons-grade gap is very small. While the country Iran Seductive America’s most advanced RQ170 UAV events, it has quite superb electronic technology, this ability is not difficult to break another key technology of nuclear weapons – the design and production of high-precision detonated the device. Iran is accelerating key nuclear facilities dispersed into a comprehensive hardened underground bunkers, which may allow Israel is about to lose should not have to act alone. Netanyahu shave every morning, probably can mirror to see the words “time waits for no.
the effect of economic sanctions against Iran can not allow Israel to optimistic. And India and even Japan, Korea and other major Iranian oil customers are only a small amount of cut Iranian oil imports, the United States on Iran’s oil the twenty major export objects give all the sanctions waiver. Recently there have been media broke the news, such as Standard Chartered, HSBC International Bank for many years for Iran to money laundering. These messages together embargo on Iranian oil exports is flawed. Expect such sanctions bow to abandon its nuclear program will take several years or even longer time, if not impossible, so great emphasis on the dignity of Iranians. Therefore, in Israel, at least hawks seems to continue to wait for sanctions to take effect on Iran would give the fight to a breakthrough last technical problem and reserves sufficient raw materials of the time.
to common belief, Israel’s current military capabilities and not sufficient to fully destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the important factory cast look at the case of special virus and the assassination of an important scientists Iraq, Israel, Iran’s current nuclear facilities and layout situation quite well. Raid trauma to some extent some of the key industrial node, thus postponing the manufacture of nuclear weapons and Israel, there should be a considerable confidence. From the history of the Israeli point of view, this is sufficient for it to be determined. In addition, Israeli politicians advocated a separate military strike is a bad said export calculations:
Once launched by Iran after being attacked fight back (no doubt), the counter-attack is likely to spread to other allies of the United States in the Middle East, and may even attack a U.S. military base in the Persian Gulf route. If this happens, the U.S. will be passive involvement, war and thus upgrade. The United States stresses had to launch a a comprehensive military strike against Iran, Israel by the hands of the United States, to eradicate Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
launch unilateral strikes in recent months, there may be an additional harvest of Israel. “Support for Israel” in the U.S. presidential election has been heating up over the next few months, due to political correctness in the United States, Obama is almost impossible to take any substantive punishment or restrict the means. The contrary, in order to prove that he is not a weak president, once the U.S. military attack, regardless of the reason and scale, and his political advisers will be urged that he ordered a comprehensive military strike on Iran.
Netanyahu and Obama between distrust and even dislike long been an open secret within et Israeli hawks worry, as long as the Obama administration, the United States never initiate Iran’s military strikes. Jerusalem and Washington is obvious things. To Republican current candidate Romney may not force incumbent Obama is saddled with the burden of long-term sluggish U.S. economy, but still maintain a leading edge in most of the time, which makes hardliners very worried. Take advantage of the election of the machine now, Israel has the opportunity to force Obama to fight Iran against their will, I am afraid that this temptation decisive role in Netanyahu’s decision-making.
For other countries, even if it is the closest allies dare be so calculating in the United States, it would certainly have been a variety of public and not public means of violent retaliation. However, due to the large and extremely influential American Jewish and Christian fundamentalist voters in, regardless of the reason, and they nearly unconditional support of Israel’s attitude, Israel is the only exception to worry about such consequences.
“impunity gold medal” of relying on deadly threat approaching, deter opponents time window is about to close, three reasons perhaps alone is insufficient to allow Netanyahu to attack. Israel has always believed in action than negotiations, the military strong diplomacy, successfully destroyed the precedent of nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria. The three factors together, Obama can only pray that Netanyahu not to give him an “October surprise”.
Note: “October surprise” is an American political idiom, refers to the sudden birth of events that may affect the results of the election before the election, because the U.S. presidential election was held in early November, occurred more influence in the events of October to the idea of ??undecided voters.
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