Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

The Figure: China and the United States Marines in the rain, light weapons and live ammunition shooting competitions.

comprehensive report of the World Wide Web – U.S. New York Times article of June 12, the original question: to avoid a US-China War Sino-US relations may lead to the two countries one day a war.

U.S. Secretary of Defense 莱昂帕内塔 announced earlier this month, 2020, 60% of U.S. Navy warships will be deployed to the Pacific. In November last year, President Obama announced that will be established in the country, the United States military bases in Australia, and China launched the ideological challenge, he also said that the United States will continue to be frank to Beijing about to adhere to international norms and respect for human rights .

written by Hugh White, Australia’s international affairs experts, China’s choice: Why the United States should share power, “a book described the dangers inherent in the current Sino-US and regional policy. He writes in the book, and both Washington and Beijing have tacitly slide into confrontation. “In order to avoid conflict between the two, White said in the book in Asia, China and the United States should be a” big country coordination reached between the economic basis of consensus is in fact already exists.

the risk of conflict does not come from desire to pursuit of global leadership. In areas outside of East Asia, China’s a very cautious policy, the policy to the economic advantages as the core, does not contain any military component. Adhere to this policy in part because China’s leaders realize they need decades of time and a huge navy military may pose a global challenge, even at that time, China will almost certainly fail.

In East Asia, the situation was very different. The vast majority of time in the history of China has been leading the region, when it becomes the world’s largest economy, will certainly attempt to do so. In the ocean can not create challenging U.S. naval forces in the future, it can produce missiles, enhanced air power, enough to make the U.S. Navy can not enter Chinese waters surrounding. In addition, the island territorial disputes between China and other countries in the region. In these disputes, China’s nationalism and the nationalism of other countries collide, the confrontation between China and Vietnam reflects a strong history of resentment between the two countries.

Vietnam and other countries hostile to China is both the largest U.S. “assets” is the greatest danger. This means that most of China’s neighbors want the U.S. to maintain military presence in the region. As Hugh White said, even if the United States to withdraw from East Asia, these countries it is impossible to Chinese hegemony “vanquish”.

But if the U.S. is committed to these countries to establish anti-China alliance, and Washington braved itself involved in territorial disputes between these countries. China and Vietnam military conflict, Washington will face a choice: either stand idly by allies reputation damaged; or to war with China.

either the U.S. or China will not win the war, but they will definitely have to each other and the world economy to cause catastrophic damage. If the escalation of the conflict into nuclear war, modern civilization will be destroyed. And economically powerful China to maintain long-term military and strategic confrontation, the U.S. position in the world will be severely weakened.

To avoid this, Hugh White, said Order in East Asia should be the establishment of China and the United States agreed not to cross a red line: without the consent of the other, not to use force. The most sensitive, if mainland China to renounce the unified force against Taiwan, the United States is likely to have to publicly support Taiwan and the mainland.

Equally important, China must recognize the legitimacy of the United States in East Asia, because the needs of other countries in the region, the United States must also be recognized by the existing political order in China, because it allows the economy to develop and greatly promote the true freedom of the Chinese people. In such coordination, the United States must abandon the speech as Obama did support the democratization of China.

As White said, the coordination between this China, the United States and countries in the region may be difficult to arrange, “If there are other alternative is not so bad, this idea is almost not worth considering. In his book, “but he also used the chilling tone wrote, other options may also have disastrous consequences.

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