Experts said Han Duihua economic dependence increase can not escape the influence of China
Data for: South Korea’s exports to Indonesia” Makassar “class dock landing ship up to 4, both the tonnage of 1.1 million tons.
[South Korea, "Chosun Ilbo" website on January 2 article] title: China Times approaching South Korea will go
This year is the 20th anniversary of South Korea and China established diplomatic relations. South Korea and China in the Cold War hostility. August 24, 1992, Korea established formal diplomatic relations since China surpassed the United States and Japan to become Korea’s largest trading nation.
2011 China overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. With the rapid development of China’s economic and military expansion, as the new hegemonic power. It was predicted that by 2020 China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s GDP ranks first in the country.
face the immediate recovery, “China Times”, South Korea will be how to deal with challenges?
former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage predicted that South Korea will depend heavily on the Chinese economy, but will not belong to China. But others predict that, with China leading the global political and economic, Korea will eventually enter China’s sphere of influence.
Armitage: South Korea but is not affiliated with China dependent on
Armitage last month near Washington office said in an interview: ” South Korea’s economy will depend heavily on China, but China also has dependent part of Korea. “
He said:” Some 30 years ago on the analysis, said South Korea will be caught in the U.S. and China, two ‘ elephants’ between the ‘ants’, but South Korea’s economic development unit to achieve a miracle and become an important role in the international community, Korea is no longer ant Korea does not belong to China. “
A Midi Qi said: “Korea can not relax vigilance against China and I think South Korea said, ‘sleep when you have an eye’。”
” Chosun Ilbo “correspondent between: the face of China’s the rise of South Korea on how to handle the?
Armitage A: The U.S. and China concluded that to maintain “business contacts”, but not necessarily to be “friends.” I think South Korea is the same. South Korea’s economic relations with China are inseparable.
Q: China worried about which side?
A: in what way will the expansion of Chinese military power makes it difficult to predict. “Ship” event (Seoul, Pyongyang accused is the culprit), and Yin Ping Island incident, when China supports North Korea, China still lead the South China Sea territorial disputes, these are people doubt China’s intentions. These concerns were dispelled in the former can not relax vigilance against China.
Q: It is predicted that China will soon overtake the United States, how do you think?
A: I do not think so. Although the United States can not continue to maintain an overwhelming advantage, but whether it is in the GDP, or military strength, China will catch up with the United States a long way to go. And China has many domestic problems to be solved, China will soon overtake the United States say some haste.
Q: How should contain the rise of China?
A: not have to contain, but South Korea and Japan in the political, economic to keep strong, China can not become a victim. United States will also play this role in Asia, but not in Korea and Japan is unlikely to help.
Q: In the future China and the ROK-US Alliance will not be shaken?
A: Frankly speaking, the Korea-US relations have been difficult times, but ultimately beneficial to both sides are moving in the direction of safety. I think the short term will not change in this direction.
some experts: South Korea will enter the Chinese sphere of influence
many view as China’s rapid economic development and national flourishing, South Korea is likely to enter the final China’s sphere of influence.
U.S. Defense Policy Board member Robert Kaplan in 2010 proposed the “Map of China’s influence” will be classified as Japanese influence in China outside the country, to return to India against China’s influence can be countries, while South Korea will not get rid of Chinese influence into the country.
Kaplan believes that China’s influence will be extended to South Korea, the Russian Far East, Central Asia, the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.
Harvard University professor Niall Ferguson also wrote: “China will become the center of the world, the United States will be difficult to stop.” He said in a recent interview: “Because of geographical location, Korea has always been around the power threat.
Korea trade volume of China’s trade volume has exceeded the United States the United States to reduce the influence of the part occupied by China. immediately the next United States and China, South Korea will face a selection dilemma of the United States or China. “
many scholars of international politics that, in the” China Times “South Korea will belong to China.
University of Southern California Professor David Kang believes will occur in East Asia led by China, the new hierarchical order. He said that East Asian countries including South Korea over the past 30 years have been made to adapt to rapid economic development of China, China’s economic dependence on the greatly improved, resulting in the Chinese-led regional order is inevitable. South Korea will also be included within the order.
experts believe that Japan is the only challenge to China’s state, but South Korea and Japan to fight against China is unlikely. Although South Korea because of historical reasons, had an aversion to China, but in the past occupation of Korea by force, and declared Dokdo (known as Takeshima in Japan – Note this newspaper) greater resentment of Japan’s sovereignty.
Experts predict that if a unified Korean peninsula, South Korea and China relations will become even closer. Kaplan pointed out that “unified Korea”, the continued presence of U.S. troops will not name the Korean Peninsula, U.S. influence will weaken rapidly, but South Korea to China’s political, economic dependence will be further enhanced.
military sources: multi-mode seeking military cooperation with China
[South Korea, "Chosun Ilbo" website] on January 3, article title: China’s military power rapidly How should enhance South Korea
Chinese Academy of Sciences, “China Modernization Report 2008,” said the Chinese military after 2050 and to a certain extent, the United States compared to 2070 or 2080 can, in general, with on the pace of the United States. End of this century, China is difficult to surpass the U.S. in the military.
In fact, China in the past few years in the Navy, Air Force and space, the missile can be said that growth in the field of impressive. China also imported from Ukraine, “Kuznetsov” aircraft carrier to reform, and last trials. It is predicted that China will independently develop aircraft carriers, and in 2015 the water.
evaluation but many people said, from the level of Chinese weapons, strategic weapons and defense costs and other aspects of the scale, China is difficult in the next 30 years to 50 years surpass the United States.
According to the British International Institute for Strategic Studies report published at the end of 2010, the standard to measure sea, that the total tonnage of naval ships (total displacement vessels), the U.S. Navy to 312.1014 million tons, other than China, ranked No. 2 to No. 14 countries combined large. Chinese ships of the total tonnage of 68 tons.
military experts pointed out, If you take China’s national defense science and technology compared with the United States, 30 years down the field of conventional weapons, nuclear weapons 20 years behind in space behind the 10 to 15 years.
researcher at Korea Institute for Defense Defense specifically Li Changheng (voice) said: “2002-2007 China 94% of major conventional weapons are imported from Russia. Short term, be significantly reduced with the United States the gap. “
the face of growing Chinese military power, South Korean military authorities are taking great pains to study the multi-angle response strategies.
to deal with China’s actual deployment of the aircraft carrier, South Korea is developing in the event of war attack aircraft carriers, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, and consider the construction of small submarines. Because the Korean West Sea (Yellow Sea – Note this newspaper) shallow water, the need is not so noticeable a small submarine.
South Korean troops from the mid-1990s started to Aegis destroyers, early warning aircraft and other sophisticated weapons combat, do not actually because of North Korea, but in response to a unified future from China or Japan and other aspects of military threat.
However, a South Korean military official said: “relying solely on military force to respond to the rapid increase of China’s military power is actually limitations.
should develop a new level security strategy, on the one hand to the ROK-US alliance, based on the one hand, to seek a variety of models with the Chinese military cooperation. “