Jin Yinan: United States and Europe in crisis can not be short-term military action against Iran
Date:2011-11-23Author:adminCategory:International militaryComment:0
data for: Iran of a nuclear facility in Isfahan – a uranium conversion plant
Zhongguang Wang (microblogging) Beijing November 10 news (reporter Li Yan), according to Voice of China “space defense” reported: Recently, media reports said the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s nuclear issue is about to announce the latest report, Israeli President Shimon Peres publicly on November 4 issue of the Iranian threat, said Israel and other countries, the possibility of military action against Iran is growing. 5 U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Shapiro also said the United States and Israel will be held in the history of the two largest military exercises.
Europe worried about the pace of Iran’s nuclear issue to accelerate the use of force threat warning
Why, then, the Iranian nuclear issue is now suddenly once again become a hot international public opinion, there is behind this What factors have led to this situation? Related topics, the reporter interviewed the National Defense Strategy Institute Professor Jin Yinan.
Jin Yinan that Middle East turmoil is actually the biggest factor behind this. After the turbulent Middle East, such as the Jasmine Revolution led to the Egyptian regime, regime change in Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Syria are also in turmoil, so that the whole Middle East is full of change in the situation.
in this changing situation, the United States, Western countries, who are in the changing situation in the speculation is the biggest beneficiaries. Some say Iran may be, there are a lot of people say that the West; the West, some people think that the biggest benefit may be Iran. Turbulence, especially in Libya, Kazha Fei’s death, as disclosed more and more.
Kazha Fei’s death, very bloody, which the world leaders of other countries, may have two effects: one set to the world and the West, against the United States, will not end well of; the other hand, to set a world subtle hints or potential, with the West, against the United States, did not have a “guy” is not.
second trend may be more dangerous, in fact, prompted small country, if not nuclear, will bring a big problem. Libya’s situation, play an indirect effect – if you do not have a nuclear weapon, may be Western any “mutilated.”
this conflict in Iraq, especially in Libya conflict, Saddam Hussein, Ka Zhafei be have been hanged, killed, possessed nuclear weapons to other countries in preparation tips, self-evident.
exacerbate this situation in Iran, did not accelerate the pace of nuclear, so much the pace of Iran’s accelerating nuclear, as it is the United States or the West, worried about the pace to accelerate its nuclear, they are very worried. Iran in Libya, the nuclear bound to accelerate the pace.
so, whether all aspects of the warning is soft is hard, a variety of analysis, evaluation, have surfaced, all kinds of threats and exercises are also out. In fact, this is the warning to Iran not to go any further.
subsidence crisis in Europe is difficult to withdraw the use of force against Iran is unlikely
Some analysts believe that the United States out of war can become a means of economic crisis; it was also that Europe now deeply in debt crisis, there is no military action against Iran’s conditions. So, how to treat these two views, the Western attack on Iran likely in the end be?
Jin Yinan that, from today’s point of view, the latter is more likely. Western countries and the United States military action against Iran, including Israel, the time is not mature enough. Because the whole North Africa region is not digested, like a large piece of something to eat, eat not digested in the stomach, the stomach is still aching. If you eat a large piece of something, could not eat.
even prepared to use force against Iran, but also to wait. Now, make the Middle East “digest” or less after the pacification of Israel, a free hand to Afghanistan, North Africa do not have a big upheaval. This case is possible.
even if the United States out of the body, the internal conflict in Iraq still continues, Afghanistan is still braving the “beacon”, the Libyan regime, not stable. Whether it is military action against Iran, or Syria is still in this state, with no possible use of force, the parties do not have such power.
of course, have long-term use of force does not rule out the possibility, even a great possibility. However, this may certainly be out of the woods in Europe, the otherwise unlikely.
So, now the tension is some of Iran’s warning means thicker.
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