U.S. Scholar: China will not decades pose a threat to the U.S. mainland
Data Figure: China Navy ships fired rockets
data for: PLA Su-30 fighter-aircraft formations
to EP-3 spy plane collision incident caused friction as the start of the Bush administration to create a good Sino-US relations. Washington recognized that, in dealing with U.S. relations with the DPRK, the United States proposal in the UN Security Council, and the establishment of a profitable trade relations to other aspects of the United States needs Beijing’s help. The beginning of the Obama administration is facing the same danger, though for different reasons.
with the economic panic of growth and decline in international trade, a government tend to trade protectionism, China is a convenient target. In addition, the Democratic Party’s foreign affairs in the United States, more often emphasized human rights, which is friction with China, another issue. Meanwhile, conservatives kept the geopolitical ambitions of China’s concern, in particular, to support the development of economic and trade relations with China business has lost influence. For China’s political storm lurking.
for US-China relations, Obama should be the Hippocratic oath as a basic goal: the first is harmless to people. No matter what the daily repeated bilateral relations, establishing long-term stability is most important. As the only global superpower, the United States to maintain control of the international affairs, but China is the most important emerging power, its regional influence is increasing, and began to play a global role. China’s growth of wealth so that the third world economic relations were strengthened, and its military to domestic growth.
the impact of this change are many, the most important may be that Washington is losing the ability to give orders to China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner accused China of “manipulating” its currency. Whether the case remains to be controversial. However, Obama’s position that it can not be a bill of lading requirements, in particular, this can also expect China to buy more U.S. bonds. Currently, China already has $ 700 billion of U.S. government bonds, accounting for foreign bonds purchased nearly 1/4. Sanctions would mean to destroy each other, both in the vicious cycle of retaliation victims.
also the case in human rights issues. Such as religion, freedom of speech and democratic elections and other issues, has a large gap between China and the U.S.. Recently, several human rights organizations wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, asked the United States to tell Beijing that China’s relations with the United States “will depend in part on whether China’s implementation of universal human rights standards.” Desire for change is strong, but to no avail. Washington can not force a country with ancient culture, is proud of developing countries according to the U.S. government to change their wishes. In addition to preaching the implementation of coercion, Washington will find it will be its Asian and European friends abandoned. In addition to diplomatic deal, except that it what weapons? Trade sanctions and military intimidation? If the United States issued an ultimatum, in particular, published, China will reciprocate. China is changing: the beginning of the reform, and will continue, but must be driven by domestic forces conducted. In fact, the Chinese society is changing, but has nothing to do with U.S. pressure.
so, Washington in the cast of its ability to force others to change, they should show humility. If Hillary Clinton Secretary of State said: We must continue to pressure them, but the pressure on some issues should not prevent cooperation on other issues. Establish a positive relationship with Beijing is more likely to let China into the final liberalization. Good prediction results, but according to common sense, communication will produce better results. The United States do not have to hesitate to promote their own ideals, but must be seen in the implementation of their capacity constraints.
Washington should also be generous attitude towards China in the world of business and diplomatic expansion. In the Cold War years, the United States and the Soviet Union in the Third World to fight the impact of the results but no sense. A lot of money spent, and many died, in Vientiane, Kinshasa, Luanda, or Managua, no one cares about the Soviet Union who is “boss.” Today, it is irrelevant. Cato Institute, my colleagues in the ? Friedman said, “China’s activities in Africa can not make it more powerful and will not harm U.S. interests, why the United States to oppose?
More importantly, Washington should not with any form of arms race in China, the Pentagon’s annual assessment of Chinese military spending seems to indicate that Beijing intends to build in East Asia to counter a U.S. intervention force as a result, former Vice President Dick Cheney chief diplomatic adviser to Allen ? Fred Boge concerned that the balance of power “began to change this: in the wrong environment, it may increase the risk of miscalculation and conflict. “The question is, what kind of balance of power? Beijing on the territory of the United States did not even pose a threat to the Pacific, and in the coming decades, if not always the case, not a threat.
controversial The question is, who has a relative influence in East Asia, Washington’s friends in the area is safe. At present, China has shown that self-confidence rather than offensive. countries in the region, especially Japan and South Korea, individually and collectively for the region safe to do more. Washington could sell weapons to friends, but the defense should be assigned the task of their own, of course, Beijing will make the United States continued policy of restraint is easier to get away from the area.
both How Washington can not keep control of the Chinese border line, at least not at an acceptable cost so under the Chinese economy has been ranked third in the world, and continues to grow in Washington in the economic crisis, the unprecedented huge resources to invest military to ensure its advantages in China, while China’s military capabilities are very limited. Nevertheless, Beijing is unlikely to ever accept the U.S. hegemony. friction, if not a conflict, is likely to occur.
better option is to adjust the geopolitical concept of the United States, China received more influential presence in the region of its own reality no matter how willing Washington, China will grow. The primary U.S. goal should be to to ensure the growth of China is peaceful, as Beijing promised himself. (The author is Senior Fellow Cato Institute United States, this translated by a high east.)