Second Artillery’s nuclear strategy expert: North Korea’s nuclear plan by the strategic position of unrealistic
data for: military parade of the Korean People’s Army Army
strategic initiative by the nuclear weapons to win is very unrealistic
– Interview with the Second Artillery Command College professor, nuclear strategists Wu Tianfu
5 25, the DPRK conducted an underground nuclear test. Of the test, the international community reacted strongly. In this regard, the author interviewed the Second Artillery Command College professor, nuclear strategists Wu Tianfu.
author: Professor Wu, you believe that a country seeking nuclear weapons development and security is the best choice?
Wu Tianfu: I have always believed that development of nuclear technology, development of strategic missile weapons is understandable why the research and development is the crux of the issue.
develop nuclear, nuclear research, nuclear development must be placed in the common human security and sustainable development of civilization premise. Specific to nuclear weapons research and development, I think, first, national development and national security depends on many factors, not the military development is a safe, economic development is not greater insecurity.
Second, create a favorable geo-strategic environment is an important external factor in national development, but also an important barrier to safeguard national security. A country’s development speed and safety and quality, always with the external pressure and death threats to the environment, that is, the greater the external pressure on the environment, the slower the speed of development, security, the lower the quality, otherwise the faster, higher.
Third, the de facto nuclear state in history, not competition, should learn to tolerate, and tolerance through international peace forces to take action, step by step to give a break up, this is clever strategists should hold the position and attitude.
Fourth, the fight in the international strategic situation in a favorable position is not wrong, the question is by what means, what means and ways to win, which is crucial. International strategic situation by political, military, economic, technological, cultural, religious and other forum constituted, for which the position should be clear to their strengths, find their own strategic position to choose their own national conditions, they can get the plate to work hard, and then wait for an opportunity to expand to other sections, this pattern is to ensure that the purpose of achieving a viable path. If you want to with the development, testing of nuclear weapons to obtain immediate strategic initiative is very unrealistic.
author: I noticed that, in addition to North Korea, but now many countries are directly or indirectly, the development of nuclear power. So, in this world there is growing number of nuclear states to form a “multipolar” international security and stability of the beneficial or useless?
Wu Tianfu: nuclear state is a relatively abstract concept, is now more countries with nuclear weapons. In fact, it should also include what nuclear resources, access to nuclear technology, with nuclear development capabilities and conditions for use of nuclear energy state, so that like your question answered.
In the latter case, I think it should be, not wrong, because it is consistent with the direction of development of human civilization, scientists have created the nuclear material wealth, social rebate is intended to promote the development of productive forces, should promote the orderly and reasonable to use.
However, if there are nuclear weapons increases, so strictly speaking, is detrimental to international security and stability, and can not bring more security help. We can imagine that people live year round in the shadow of nuclear threat, the per capita carrying more than 2,000 kilograms of TNT explosive equivalent, in a world full of great promise approximate closed “nuclear powder keg,” being, how could there be international security and stability at all?
author: As I understand it, theorists of the world’s nuclear landscape has many views.
Wu Tianfu: Yes, now the world’s nuclear structure theorists have “unipolar”, “bipolar”, “multi-polar” and “The Promise” and other figurative description, It was suggested that a “unipolar most dangerous”, “two more horrible” and “multi-polar can be checks and balances” of the theory and ideas. For some of the world’s major powers made a lot of injustice, many people suggest should be checks and balances through a multi-polar.
“multipolarity” as a strategy in the field of new things, must be advantages and disadvantages. We need the kind of “multi-polar”? “Multi-polar” What should be more to a few highly? What qualifications have to be called “extreme”? Development of multi-polarization is the inevitable trend of the international community? And “unipolar”, “bipolar,” which compared the performance of the different characteristics of the law? How a multi-polar balance? These problems, if not correctly analyze and interpret objectively, it is easy for those countries seeking to develop nuclear weapons caused the illusion, misleading, desperate to develop nuclear weapons as an excuse or reason. More countries have nuclear weapons, international relations will be more complex, not only would not achieve the “pole” of the checks and balances and the curing effect, the order of the nuclear field will become increasingly chaotic.
author: is now facing the international community that the nuclear situation is complex.
Wu Tianfu: is. In many international affairs, the affairs of the nuclear field in any case be regarded as the most complex, most difficult and dangerous business. Cold War nuclear matters are the two major nuclear powers of the things around the development of nuclear weapons between the Soviet Union’s competition – limited – and then competition – and then limit, constitute the mainstream of the relationship between the world’s nuclear affairs, due to the conflict or nuclear and health problems almost are out of this.
After the Cold War, relatively stable strategic relationship between the severe tilt of checks and balances, especially in the Soviet Union the objective brain drain caused by the nuclear and nuclear technology, the proliferation of nuclear materials, making a number of countries or social groups (organizations) take advantage of the various names to step up the development, production and even to buy nuclear weapons material, nuclear threshold countries and the growing potential nuclear countries, nuclear energy, according to United Nations Organization, 2020, the fact that nuclear power will reach 40.
author: What do you think it is to stabilize the world’s nuclear affairs, from which the international community should make joint efforts?
Wu Tianfu: Faced with this grim situation of nuclear generalization, if the international community to take extraordinary measures to contain the nuclear field will be more volatile, the outbreak of nuclear crisis, nuclear terrorism, nuclear conflict, even nuclear war, the chances increase substantially. To avoid human possible nuclear catastrophe, the international community must abandon all kinds of prejudice or hostility, pull together to stabilize the nuclear affairs, harmony nuclear relationship, to resolve the nuclear risk, the eradication of nuclear weapons, elimination of contributing to nuclear war.
I personally think that one should form a human society on behalf of the United Nations “Global Zero,” the joint declaration and resolutions, the establishment of authoritative, representative, reliable zero nuclear supervisory bodies, to develop “global Zero, “a century plan, proposed a phased control nuclear, nuclear sales, eliminate nuclear objectives, tasks, and set a strict zero-nuclear incentives and measures to guarantee.
Second, the five permanent members of the United Nations should assume stability of the continent or regional nuclear affairs responsibilities and obligations, nuclear power should be the height of human security interests in controlled nuclear, nuclear sales, eliminate the nuclear aspects of set an example with action, not only nice words to win the trust of the world.
three, should be concerned about the weak, poor and small countries in the political, military, economic and security demands of the development of nuclear weapons testing and the background to make an objective assessment of motivation to find the cause of the problem and the crux of the problem, take a practical and effective methods and measures.
four nuclear countries should focus on nuclear matters affecting the world around barriers to stable, full of reason and wisdom to start strategic dialogue, ensure that the world nuclear affairs to obtain a stable consensus, and in their nuclear policy nuclear conscientiously implement the strategy.
Fifth, the international community or international arms control organization should improve the “arms control” in particular “nuclear arms control,” the concept of connotation, the idea of ??expanding nuclear arms control.
six nuclear arms control can not be controlled behind closed doors, try to set up the world’s nuclear non-proliferation fund, set up global nuclear proliferation, nuclear production, nuclear smuggling, nuclear test free hotline for reporting, build a special network system to report platform, on or after intelligence reports to verify the informer organizations (groups) the implementation of rewards and, as appropriate to protect security and international law.
seven should be set up nuclear energy development and utilization of global banks, and vigorously promote the use of nuclear energy into the process, the rational allocation of resources and co-ordinate the purchase nuclear energy, nuclear energy resources to achieve the field of fixed points only fight. Proprietary use of nuclear energy for all mankind, all countries should strive to make the world a chance, conditional, there are ways, humans have the ability to share the results of the development and use of nuclear energy. (Liu generation)