North Korea is not large-scale mobilization of troops do not have the Korean war conditions
Data for: North Korea told the military to combat exercise
special correspondent in Korea/Zhan Debin
“war clouds hanging over the Korean Peninsula!” This is some of the recent Western media often appear in sentences. As the United States and South Korea launched 9th largest military exercise ever, the Korean military have recently issued a strong warning, speculation, “a second Korean War” could break out.
South Korean military to prepare for the
The two countries date from the 9th of this month launched a code-named “key 2009 decision and Yao Ying,” the joint military exercises, the exercise will continue until 20. The United States sent 26,000 troops participating, there are more than 30,000 South Korean military investment. US-South Korean military stressed that this is a routine annual joint military exercises, aimed at North Korea’s offensive defense, not attack North Korea.
North Korea to South Korea’s military action of high tension. March 9, North Korea’s military said in a statement that the joint military exercise is designed to launch a “second Korean War,” military provocations. Toward the Army General Staff for the United States and Japan also plan to intercept North Korean missile issue, said those who intercept North Korean satellite “light star 2″ behavior, the DPRK will resolutely respond immediately to military means. North Korea also cut off at the 9th inter-Korean military hotlines. For the DPRK’s remarks, both U.S. and South Korea remain vigilant. South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman, said Yuan Thai set 9, “South Korean troops have done everything to prepare.”
war conditions are not met
Despite the current tensions in North Korea up to the level of confrontation, but from all indications, the outbreak of war in the Korean Peninsula The objective conditions are not met.
first annual US-ROK military exercise is not just exercise, but also defensive maneuvers, there will be less likely to attack the DPRK. 5 U.S. Department of Defense, said the Korea-US joint military exercises during the Korean and U.S. aircraft is not necessary to enter the North Korean airspace. Since the U.S. and South Korea do not take the initiative to provoke North Korea will not “fight back” reasons.
Second, North Korea claimed that any act to intercept the satellite will be determined by the response toward the Army. However, according to 09 core members of the South Korean government said the news that North Korea has not yet found signs of missile tests soon. Moreover, the U.S. director of national intelligence, said Blair, 10, for the first time, North Korea may be preparing to test the delivery of satellite rocket.
Korean politicians and civil society from the reaction of the Korean peninsula is still no war atmosphere. Although North Korea cut off at the 9th inter-Korean military contact, but 10 days to have access to the DPRK decided to resume the Korean Kaesong industrial park and Mount Kumgang Gyeongui and Donghae lines of land traffic. In addition, 10 staff from North Korea to return to South Korea, said the Kaesong Industrial Park, where there has never been any abnormal movement.
there is little reason is that, although the implementation of multi-angle outside the North Korean military deterrence tactics, but it is very quiet inside. According to South Korean media reports, from December to now, the Korean army has been conducting winter military training, but during which almost no large scale movement of troops, armored team training, flight training. In other words, North Korea did not prepare an offensive posture.
tough talk is to put pressure on South Korea
with the north-south tensions, some South Korean conservative media said North Korean threat to South Korea crossed ” red line. ” South Korea, “Chosun Ilbo” and even warned that the military through the line was cut off, if during this period on land or sea between North and South occasional conflict, because the parties are unable to communicate quickly in a timely manner, is likely to further expand the scope of engagement.
In fact, even if an unexpected conflict, the war is difficult to extend to the entire peninsula. 9 South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman expressed, North Korea threatened to go to war may not be true intentions, but the diplomatic wording of a political nature. North Korea hopes tough measures to gain political and economic benefits, such as the United States to promote bilateral negotiations with North Korea as soon as possible to discuss the establishment of peace mechanism and the DPRK established diplomatic relations and other issues. Through the tactical edge in the hope of access to these benefits does not completely disappear before North Korea will not act rashly.
although between the two Koreas broke off all official contact, but the North Korean military and the link between UNC is smooth. North Korea and the United Nations Command at Panmunjom earlier this month has been held several times in the general-level talks. U.S. and the DPRK want to be able to general-level talks, to eliminate misunderstandings and to build a relationship of trust. Korea Institute for National Unification Dr. Cui Chunqin on “World News” special correspondent analysis, said: “If Korean skirmishes, the United States will expand rapidly to prevent war.”
This year is the 60th anniversary of China-DPRK diplomatic relations. North Korean Premier Kim Yong Il will visit Beijing on December 17. In countries around the world are working to save the economic crisis, the large-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula does not meet the interests of any party. (The author is a part-time researcher at Research Center of Fudan University, Korea)
News Analysis: war will break the balancer in Northeast Asia
Korean war despite the possibility of very small, but once the fight, the Northeast Asian region will be a big disaster. First, the South will suffer a great possibility, either party may in a very short period of time to implement a devastating blow on the other side, and led to hundreds of thousands of casualties.
the event of large-scale war, the conservative forces in South Korea would likely take the opportunity to force unification on the Korean Peninsula requires. Then the balance of power in Northeast Asia will be a new adjustment, the USFK is likely the same as 50 years ago in the Yalu River, the countries will also adjust their foreign policies.
In addition, once the war occurs, there will be a large number of North Korean refugees flee to northeast China and Russia to the Far East stability and economic development has brought a heavy burden. North and South suddenly unified the economic and social burden will be more heavy. (Zhan Debin)