Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

information Figure: Chinese nuclear submarine emergency float

Singapore, “Lianhe Zaobao,” December 28, entitled “China’s Asia security dilemma and choice,” the article.

reform and opening up, whether it is internal reform or opening up, China regard the policy priority placed economic development. Today, China has become one of the world’s largest trading nations. In this process, the strategy (whether it is the sense of geopolitical or military sense) in the secondary low. Early in the reform, China’s emphasis on military modernization to economic development services, but also for foreign economic services. Years, although with the economic rise of China’s military modernization is accelerating, but still the subject of economic modernization. From the twelfth five-year plan to stress again that “development is the last word” principle point of view, this theme will continue.

While such a policy choice in China is mainly on China’s internal development, but of international relations also had a great impact, mainly to effectively curb the international politics as “security dilemma” The problem surfaced. This can be from several perspectives.

First, China’s open policy not only help themselves, but also conducive to the West. China practices “Please come in” and “integration” policy, not only offering to open their markets to the West, and willing to reform their own system and international system integration. This policy of integration through the world, prompting China’s rapid development. Without this integration, it is difficult to imagine China in such a short time, created a miracle in the history of the world economy. At the same time, these practices also allow the West to feel comfortable. Reflected in the face of international politics, in the “Please come in” and “integration” of these two stages, with China and the West no fundamental conflict. In essence, economic and military strategic interaction than the interaction, better performance in a win-win situation.

second, from Deng Xiaoping to the contemporary, peaceful development of China’s main international political ideology, and clearly reflected in the policy topic. In the Deng Xiaoping era, China made peace and development. China is not only that peace and development are the subject of world politics, but also put this as China’s development opportunities. This topic until now has not changed. Since the late 1990s, China put forward the “peaceful rise” or “peaceful development” in recent years, also proposed a “harmonious world.” Although there is a subtle change in wording, but the theme is the same. It should be noted that the peace of the main theme of ideology and policy, not just that the international community to listen, but also China’s own goal.

Third, the choice of China to create China’s own and other economies depend on each other. The Soviet Union, China has not followed suit, mainly because of this choice. China and the world’s various economies especially the U.S., Europe and Asia between economies, have shown the characteristics of interdependence. Although economic interdependence does not completely eliminate the security dilemma, but can effectively reduce the security dilemma. If military conflict, then countries pay the cost and expense, do not depend on the situation than high. In any case, the cost will encourage countries to become more rational.

because of the ideology and policy themes of peace, the plight of China’s own national security concerns are not great. In the international area, can cause a major security dilemma China is the U.S. factor. But in the past few decades, China has effectively reduced the factors that could cause the U.S. deterioration of the security dilemma. In addition to economic constraints on each other, but in many other areas, such as the Taiwan issue, such as the Korean Peninsula, China and the United States build a lot of communication channels. In addition, the United States many years of strategic focus in the war on terror, is also difficult for the United States, China constitutes an important factor in the security dilemma. This is the Chinese call “strategic opportunity”, the Chinese take advantage of this opportunity, not only to develop their own economy, but also achieved a considerable degree of economic “go out”, especially in Southeast Asian countries.

China’s security dilemma from the United States

But China’s security dilemma has recently undergone great changes, can be said that drastic changes. The first is the dramatic changes in the surrounding environmental factors. The Korean Peninsula, from the “security” incident to the recent shelling, the situation is getting worse. And Japan, East China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands issue a long time, but the collision not only re-strained Sino-Japanese relations, but also is leading the transformation of Japan’s nationalism, in the long run, China is very negative. In the South China Sea, Vietnam, China and other countries on deepening concerns, and begin to take action, primarily to invite the United States involvement. In fact, in all the surrounding issues, has been showing a great power politics of the trends of China’s strategic pressure surge.

more important factor is the United States. In general, a country’s traditional security dilemma, mainly from the other country’s military and strategic threat. War on terror has changed the traditional concept of the international community. In a very long time, every country strategy focuses on non-traditional security, including terrorism. But these years of experience shows that traditional security, as non-traditional security is bound to become the norm. The United States has realized that terrorism is a long-term task, the results can not be there in a short time; United States can not be ignored because of non-traditional security and traditional security problems. Once the U.S. strategy to a traditional security issues, China would immediately feel a huge pressure.

U.S. strategy began to change, escape from the war on terrorism, the United States today its strategic move to traditional security center, the Western Pacific. Compared with China, the traditional security issues, the U.S. has historically been an action-oriented country. Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan and the U.S. government tried to pursue a more equal relationship between the United States soon so easily Hatoyama regime, Democratic Party, Liberal Democratic Party is now time to implement and even more the security of the United States closer strategic relationship. The United States has successfully used “security” and the shelling of South Korea, the Korean incident, the Diaoyu Islands issue, and strengthen the United States, Japan, South Korea alliance; also used the South China Sea “return” in Southeast Asia. U.S. to traditional security, is bound to exacerbate the plight of China’s traditional security, but also incurs “containment”, “containment”, “strategic threat” perception of international relations.

course, the formation and development of the security dilemma, are the result of interaction between countries. Therefore, it should be noted that the changes in China’s internal factors, is also changing, including the United States to China’s security awareness. With economic development, China is accelerating its military modernization. China’s military modernization is necessary, not sufficient national defense, various aspects of China’s development is difficult to continue. Although as noted above, China’s strategic and military considerations can not replace the primacy of the economy, but the strategic and military must keep pace. China is already the world’s few trading nations, both import and export or overseas more and more need to protect the interests of both China’s strategic demands to go out. These changes led to China’s neighboring countries worry about the small hope that other major powers to balance Chinese power. To a large extent, the U.S. was “invited” back.

China may decide to compete on the battlefield

to China’s grand strategy which provides a selection dilemma, just as in economic competition and strategy (even military competition) between making a choice. General sense of economic competition is healthy competition. In the context of globalization, economic competition often leads to interdependence, to develop mutual trust. Economic competition between China and the U.S. is not only a win-win game, but also for other countries as well, because the competition that the two countries to other countries need to provide better financial services. China and ASEAN economic relations is one such example. China and ASEAN began in the free trade negotiations, Japan is very nervous that this competition from Japan. Japan (later South Korea) are in the ASEAN region and China to strengthen the economic competitiveness. But such competition is not only did not produce any problems, but also contributed to the two Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian regional economic integration.

now the United States “return” in Asia, if you have joined the ranks of economic competition, then there will not be a problem. As long as globalization does not back the United States and China on the same economic track racing, will not only increase the degree of economic interdependence between the two countries, but also makes many other countries benefit, but will offer other economic aspects (such as technology and labor productivity) progress. Despite the economic competition have a say in international politics “relative interests”, but the problem is controllable.

However, the strategic competition especially military competition is not the case, it is more of a zero-sum game, or life and death of the game, it is vicious competition. If China and the U.S. military and strategic competition, then not only may the development of bilateral relations between the Soviet Union during the Cold War to the pattern of relationships, so other countries will be adversely affected. Military and strategic competition is a competition each unsafe, only deepen national security dilemma.

for China, the challenge is: to insist on the runway in the economy, pull the U.S. economy into the runway? Or in the different race tracks and the United States (ie, China’s economic track, the U.S. military strategy on the runway)? Or dragged by the U.S. strategic and military hardware on the runway?

whether the U.S. strategy towards the Western Pacific strategic opportunity that China end? From the Chinese point of view is only a passive role, then the answer is yes. But in fact on the strength of today’s China is no longer a passive role, providing a passive acceptance of his country’s “strategic opportunities.” On the contrary, China has the ability to take the initiative to create a “strategic opportunity”, that is, the Chinese have their own choice.

Therefore, China should take the initiative, should not be passively drawn into the U.S. military and strategic competition track. China’s military modernization should be, but economic development still needs the first place. Whether active or passive, not the strategy on the top position. This can avoid the United States. Since the financial crisis, the United States face many problems in the economic recovery is slow. In this case, in the course of competition with China, the United States will largely turn its very strong military force. If China is not careful, by the United States into strategic or military runway in the long run, it will inevitably become America’s “enemies.” United States and China were to become a real (rather than as now the “imagination of) the” enemy “, which will do all aspects of the mobilization to deal with China, as against the former Soviet Union did. Then the world will return to the Cold War model, that the United States and the Soviet-style mutual confrontation and threats.

China is not only to avoid being dragged into military strategic competition track, but also to take the initiative to pin down the United States, allowed to stay on the runway in the economy in economic and the United States to continue to deepen cooperation of trade, the yuan, climate and so on, the cooperation between China and the U.S. there is a lot of space. economic and trade between the two countries although there are conflicts, but can be controlled and resolved. For China, these areas must be prevented in the economic and trade relations between the two countries held hostage by some vested interests.

Furthermore, China should also encourage those who run the United States turned to traditional security areas make greater efforts reduce America’s traditional security dilemma, or reduce the security of the United States turned to the traditional reasons, such as the North Korean issue, China needs more as to restrain North Korea’s behavior, to prevent its further irrational provocation in the South China Sea even the Diaoyu Islands issue, China should change the thinking, from the current bilateral relations, strategic transition to multilateral negotiations within the framework of bilateral, although can not guarantee these multilateral issues are resolved, but can effectively manage and control these problems.

All in all, China in Asia’s security dilemma is not just the choice of the United States, China’s own choice is the result of the United States is now leading the world can not be arbitrary, although the choice of the United States would profoundly affect China, but it must be clear that China’s own choice is also important, China’s choice not only determine their own future, the future of international politics will have a profound impact (Yongnian Zheng)