Military of China, force comment.
Military of China, force comment.

Libya,” the National Transitional Council “members Abdul Lamai Hu Bu 22 am , told reporters that armed opposition has control of the capital Tripoli, Gaddafi is currently the city’s clear remnants.

Tripoli opposition scored a lot of speed only exceeded analyst views, but also surprised that the NATO countries. Zhang Bo, military experts believe that this fact shows the military actually Gaddafi has already lost the ability to control, before he has been in the “bluff.”

Zhang Bo said, the opposition began to attack in Tripoli a few days ago the periphery, including zawyet and Gail Young, etc., which shows the opposition’s strategy has emerged to adjust the signs of small stocks turned to large-scale guerrilla warfare deal crucial positional warfare.

opposition had been near the place from the capital Tripoli to maintain military presence, this situation has continued for six months, but they rarely attack out of the mountains the main towns, but the power savings.

this is because the strength of opposition to the Gaddafi government forces feel fear of Gaddafi’s military propaganda and some doubts; the other hand also shows that there is some opposition to the strategic situation — both through an ambush in the city, “the ghost” and the reality Gaddafi exploration, but also from NATO and other Western countries to wait for more assistance.

when the French opposition to the western mountains provided military equipment, the opposition of Gaddafi’s “observation period” is finally over, it became a mountain out of the opposition have the ability, to attack Tripoli and the southern gateway to the west zawyet and Gail Young military base.

However, when the opposition zawyet and government forces suffered Gail Young, etc., after Gaddafi’s military has actually found a lack of combat effectiveness, allowing the opposition to find out the Gaddafi government forces and energy cards. Into Tripoli, the pre-ambush “the ghost” collaborated led offensive gangbusters.

Zhang Bo that this indicates that Gaddafi had control of the military failure. Gaddafi is not as great importance in the history of army building, as he worried that occur within the same “coup”, so concentrate on their guard equipment, so Libya’s Gaddafi military strength of the most sophisticated and perhaps some of the Guard combat effectiveness.

Houkazhafei five times guess

appear critical turning point yesterday the situation in Libya, although Gaddafi current whereabouts are unknown, but the mean occupied Tripoli the end of an era, Gaddafi in Libya for up to 42-year rule ends. However, all this does not mean the end of Libya’s volatile situation. As the power vacuum caused by the fall of the regime, Libya will not be caught in internal strife and armed separatism, a second Somalia? Opposition “Houkazhafei era” and how maintenance of stability?

suppose 1

will ignite the fire of civil war?

with the armed opposition Libya Tripoli control most of the morning of 22 areas, some people began to worry the opposition may be due to internal factions struggle for power and a fight.

armed members of the opposition Sam Naja IL-21, Hu told Reuters correspondent, once the capture of Tripoli, he and his troops first thing to do is “set up checkpoints, including the lifting Other opposition groups, including all weapons, otherwise there will be a shopping here. ” In his view, want to control the armed opposition in Tripoli, the most needed “order.”

Naja Il remarks revealed the concerns of many members of the opposition. Gaddafi regime about to collapse, he needs to fill the power vacuum left behind. Once the common goal of overthrowing Gaddafi to be realized, “Houkazhafei era” power struggle could not be avoided.

interview with Western correspondents noted that the armed opposition, the opposition within the “individualist tradition”, fighting each other: they generally call themselves “from a village,” armed, never claiming to be “the Libyan opposition”; Reporters want to go to the front line fighting the interview, must obtain control of specific areas of armed opposition front license; less coordination between the different armed, and even each other. “contempt.”

guess 2

whether to split the country?

Reuters commented that Gaddafi of Libya’s ruling as “religious”, the lack of national institutions and improve the system to increase the difficulty of the future handover. Meanwhile, opposition within the “ingredients” complex ideas “diversity”, both religious organizations, but also secular groups; both long-term fight against Gaddafi regime “hardcore” the opposition, but also to invest in the opposition camp, the former senior government officials; both There are “not going too close to the West” point of view, there are voices asking for foreign investment.

Gaddafi after the fall of the regime, the opposition if you can not twist into a “rope an ‘likely to fall into division. And how to select and establish effective leadership, will directly affect the future political direction of Libya and stability.

Libyan opposition supporters in the UK Meath Achouri Arshad told Reuters correspondent, if the opposition can not have allegiance to the new regime with the power of collaboration Gaddafi, can not recruit talent, rebuild the country.

analysts believe that if the “hardliners” in power, Iraq, Libya may repeat the error. After the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein-led Baath Party supporters and a large number of officers the woman was “clear.”

the new government to build, the former Baath Party members were once restricted to public office. After the formation of the new government, Iraq’s national, religious, and political contradictions, conflicts of interests the parties continued, from Saddam Hussein supporters to “base” organization, forces frequent violent attacks.

guess 3

how to balance the interests of tribes?

Libya is a multi-state tribes, many tribes in western and eastern sub-longer secret. Gaddafi both ruled for 42 years, of which there are many tribes support factors.

these tribes concern is: if Gaddafi to step down, their interests will continue to be protected? Will still be anti-Gaddafi tribal annexation?

Middle East experts Zhao-one believes that the future of Libya’s rulers more than 140 tribes will face the thorny issue of how to balance interests. Many tribes have their own armed and “site”, if dissatisfied with the distribution of benefits for the future, they might have their own way, even the war to overthrow the Qaddafi regime to continue after the end of endless infighting. As a result, Libya will “Afghanistan” and then whether it is Western or Libyan leadership of the new agency may not have the ability to solve this problem. This in turn will take advantage of the extreme forces of convenience.

even in Gaddafi’s reign, the “base” organizations active in a number of tribes, there are signs, if the tribal problem solved, the problem will go beyond the internal areas of Libya, will give the regional situation and international security implications.

guess 4

who can lead the new Libya?

U.S. intelligence analysis firm “strategic forecasting company” in the eastern director 卡姆兰博哈 says, now the lack of a Libyan opposition “was all respected” leaders, the problem should not be underestimated.

now the most “dazzling,” the opposition leader is “National Transition Council” Chairman Mustafa Abdul – Jalil. Jalil was born in 1952, from 2007 to 2011 served as Secretary of the Libyan General People’s Committee for Justice (equivalent to Minister of Justice). Libya’s political turmoil earlier this year, he was ordered to negotiate with the opposition in Benghazi, and then announced his resignation from the Gaddafi regime in March as “National Transition Council” Chairman.

as a former senior government officials, his opposition in Libya, Libya and the Libyan people in the eastern tribal prestige high. However, for some hope from the “new face” of leading the country’s opposition, Abdul – Jalil associated with the old regime may be his “flawed.”

“National Transition Council,” President of the Board, Gaddafi’s former government officials Mahmoud Jibril, head of economic and petroleum affairs Ali Tal Huhne is also the new government leadership potential candidates. Bokhari said that the opposition, the capture of Tripoli, the difficulty is not small, govern the country more difficult, the primary challenge they face is “finding people who can get all recognition.”

guess 5

how to deal with the West?

see is the international community, France, Italy and other Western countries support the importance of air power Gaddafi regime. The purpose of their participation in the war in Libya, in addition to flaunt the so-called human rights and democracy, the oil interests and to expand its presence in North Africa is also an indisputable fact.

a large part of Libya’s crude oil are exported to Italy, France and other Mediterranean European countries. These countries entered the war, to ensure the future of the oil interests to provide further protection.

Zhao-one that, from the U.S. side, the MENA countries, since the spate of unrest earlier this year to set up a new government in line with American values, Gaddafi’s rule is clearly inconsistent with American ideology. So in the long run, Libya Middle East and North Africa policy in the United States a pawn.

Libya’s new government is in support of these Western countries set up, it will certainly be the attitude of the future with a pro-Western slant. However, 80 percent of the Libyan Arab people, many of them still agree with Gaddafi hostile policy towards the West, the people of the West’s view of the constraints of Western opposition to the regime’s attitude. Zhao-one that deal with relations with Western countries, and to placate domestic public, the opposition must face the key issues. (Zhang Le Xing Shiwei)

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